Iran International
As Iran and the United States reshuffle the format and venue of their talks amid military threats, deep mistrust, and hardline red lines, skepticism over a breakthrough appears widespread.
The talks, originally scheduled for Friday in Istanbul with several regional countries expected to attend, were moved to Oman at Iran’s request and narrowed to bilateral discussions between Tehran and Washington.
Tehran had also reiterated its insistence on indirect negotiations, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sitting in a separate room from Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, relying on Omani mediators to shuttle messages between the two sides.
State media further reported that the talks would focus exclusively on the nuclear issue, as in previous rounds.
However, The New York Times reported on Thursday that while Iran’s nuclear program would be the main focus, the two sides agreed that negotiations would also cover missiles and Tehran’s support for militant groups.
The newspaper cited three Iranian officials and one Arab official as saying the US agreed to hold the talks in Oman and exclude regional actors, while Iranian officials agreed to face their American counterparts.
Negotiations to avoid war—or merely delay it?
While diplomats maneuver, hardliners continue to float threats of preemptive strikes on Israel and closing the Strait of Hormuz, while claiming that Iran’s military posture has forced Trump to reconsider his repeated threats of military action.
Former foreign minister and lawmaker Manouchehr Mottaki said the likelihood of a US attack has dropped “from 100 percent to around 50 percent,” attributing the change to Washington’s doubts about achieving victory.
Journalist Hossein Yazdi, however, cited three developments over the past few days—the IRGC’s harassment of a US vessel in the Persian Gulf, the US downing of an IRGC Shahed-139 surveillance drone in the Arabian Sea, and Iran’s insistence on moving talks to Oman without Arab observers—as evidence that negotiations are not serious.
“Both sides have their hands on the trigger,” he wrote.
Iran’s red lines remain intact
It remains unclear whether Iran, facing Trump’s threats and the risk of war, is willing to reconsider positions that contributed to the collapse of previous negotiations.
Conservative analyst Hossein Qatib, who has previously advocated crossing the nuclear threshold, warned against surrendering Iran’s estimated 400 kilograms of enriched uranium.
“Any decision regarding these stockpiles must be designed with maximum distrust toward the other side’s intentions,” he wrote. “Handing them over in one go—under any title—is not goodwill or strategic rationality. It is voluntary disarmament under military threat.”
Others echoed familiar red lines. Esmail Kowsari, a member of parliament’s national security committee, said Iran’s missile capabilities and regional activities are “absolutely none of America’s business.”
Former deputy speaker Ali Motahari likewise cited enrichment rights, missile range, support for the so-called Axis of Resistance, and refusal to recognize Israel as all non-negotiable.
Few expect a breakthrough
Given Iran’s insistence on these red lines, its past negotiating record, and recent mass killings of protesters that have plunged the Islamic Republic into a severe legitimacy crisis, few analysts express optimism.
Political analyst Ruhollah Rahimpour told Iran International that the Islamic Republic is, for the first time, confronting both a real external threat and a profound internal legitimacy crisis. “This combination is deadly,” he said, adding that Tehran can no longer assume it can cross Trump’s red lines and face only rhetorical consequences.
Former diplomat Nosratollah Tajik was blunt: “It is unlikely this round of mediation will go anywhere due to structural issues, the gap between goals and expectations, and the unfinished business of the previous two stages of Iran–US conflict.”
Mottaki also expressed doubt, saying: “These talks will not produce tangible results, but they may deter the US from imposing war.”
Yazdi argued there are no signs of serious negotiations, noting that Iran wants to resume narrow nuclear talks in Oman, while Trump and Israel seek far broader concessions. “From their perspective, destroyed nuclear facilities are no longer the top priority,” he wrote.
A user on X warned that failed talks would only make a Trump-led war against Iran appear more justified in the eyes of the international community.
Who really decides?
President Masoud Pezeshkian weighed in with a rare post on X on Tuesday, saying he had instructed the foreign minister to pursue talks “if there is a suitable, threat-free atmosphere.”
The wording sparked controversy, as few doubt that foreign policy is ultimately controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A community note was even added to the post.
"The person who makes the decisions in Iran is the Supreme Leader. The President doesn't really matter," US Vice-President J.D. Vance said on Wednesday.
"The Foreign Minister seems to talk to the Supreme Leader and that's mainly the person that we've communicated with. But it's a very weird country to conduct diplomacy with when you can't even talk to the person who's in charge of the country."
Researcher Abbas Gheidari interpreted Pezeshkian’s phrase “I instructed” as an attempt to preemptively assume responsibility for a potential nuclear concession to protect Khamenei.
Vice President Jafar Ghaempanah tried to soften the debate, writing: “No war is good, and not every peace is surrender.” Some conservatives such as Abdolreza Davari read this as a sign of an imminent deal. Ultra-hardline lawmaker Mehdi Koochakzadeh, however, warned that “the peace imposed by the architects of the JCPOA will bring humiliation worse than surrender.”
Protesters’ anger and pressure on Trump
Some Iranian activists and social media users have reacted angrily to what they describe as Trump’s flexibility, saying Tehran is once again buying time.
“This is what they’ve done for nearly 30 years,” one user wrote. “Trump prioritizes extracting concessions, not regime change—otherwise he wouldn’t have stopped Israel in the 12-day war.”
One image sent by a citizen to Iran International showed graffiti reading: “President Trump: Don’t negotiate with the killers of the Iranian people.”
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.