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President Donald Trump’s response to Iran’s recent unrest appears to reflect a strategy of gunboat diplomacy: the use of military pressure, rhetorical escalation, and economic coercion to extract concessions without committing to war or formal regime change.
Iran’s currency plunge in late December 2025 sparked nationwide protests that quickly escalated from economic grievances into calls for an end to the Islamic Republic. The crackdown that followed was unusually violent, killing thousands under a sweeping internet blackout.
Trump’s response was neither a formal call for regime change nor an immediate move toward military conflict. Instead, it combined public threats, diplomatic suspension, and economic pressure with visible military signaling designed to raise the cost of repression while preserving strategic flexibility.
“A massive Armada is heading to Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week, describing the fleet—led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln—as “ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.”
The signalling grew more explicit on Wednesday, when the US president urged Iran to “quickly ‘Come to the Table’” and negotiate a deal. He warned that “the next attack will be far worse” than last June’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites if an agreement was not reached.
The military centerpiece of Trump’s strategy is the redeployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, restoring credible strike capacity at a moment when Iran’s leadership is consumed by internal unrest.
Escorted by multiple destroyers and carrying nearly 90 aircraft, including F-35s, the Lincoln gives Washington a flexible range of options—from limited strikes on Revolutionary Guard assets to broader operations.
Additional US combat aircraft, armored units, and air-defense systems have been repositioned across regional bases, underscoring the signaling intent. The objective appears to be readiness without commitment.
Trump’s apparent aim is to exploit Iran’s weakened position to coerce strategic concessions—not only on the nuclear and missile programs, but also on Tehran’s regional proxy activity. That pressure has been reinforced by a proposed 25 percent tariff on countries trading with Iran, announced on January 12.
Washington’s approach appears calibrated to push for negotiations while Tehran is at its most vulnerable, stopping short of an explicit commitment to military action or regime change.
The ambiguity looks deliberate—and strategic. It may work, but it is not risk-free. US credibility could erode if threats are not followed through. External pressure may also strengthen hardliners in Tehran by reinforcing narratives of foreign orchestration, potentially unifying a fractured elite.
Iran’s armed allies in the region retain some capacity to retaliate against US interests or Israel. Whether they choose to do so is unclear, but the risk of escalation into a broader conflict cannot be dismissed.
Tehran, for its part, has hardened its rhetoric, warning of an “unrestrained” and “unprecedented” response to any US military operation, while simultaneously expressing openness to what it calls “fair” negotiations.
Pressure on Iran is also building beyond Washington. On Thursday, the European Union took what its foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, described as a “decisive step” toward designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation—its strongest signal yet that patience with the Islamic Republic is wearing thin.
At the same time, Kallas cautioned that the region “doesn’t need another war,” underscoring Europe’s own balancing act between pressure and restraint.
Iran’s streets are quiet after a bloody crackdown. But the economy is in free fall, and another round of widespread protests appears increasingly likely.
The key question now is whether Trump’s gunboat diplomacy can extract strategic gains without igniting the very conflict it seeks to avoid—or whether it merely postpones a more dangerous reckoning.
At least 10 US warships are now believed to be operating in the Middle East, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, BBC Verify reported.
The report said a US guided-missile destroyer, the USS Delbert D. Black, was tracked sailing through the Suez Canal toward the Gulf on Wednesday, citing ship-tracking data from the MarineTraffic website.
A US official confirmed to BBC Verify on Tuesday that the aircraft carrier is in the region, although it has not appeared on public ship-tracking sites for more than a week.
BBC Verify also tracked a US Navy Osprey aircraft early on Thursday flying in the Gulf toward Oman. Ospreys are tiltrotor transport aircraft known to operate from the USS Abraham Lincoln.
Another Osprey was tracked on Tuesday broadcasting its position off the coast of Oman, which BBC Verify said could suggest the carrier is operating in the area.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards naval forces will carry out live-fire exercises next week in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s state-run English-language Press TV reported.
Earlier on Thursday, the Associated Press reported that Iran had warned mariners it planned to conduct naval live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday, citing a notice to mariners broadcast by VHF radio.
The report cited two unnamed Pakistani security officials, who confirmed the warning had been issued.
Iran summoned Germany’s ambassador to Tehran on Thursday over remarks by Germany’s chancellor a day earlier that Tehran said amounted to interference in its internal affairs, Iranian state media reported.
A day earlier, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking about Iran, said a government that could only hold on to power through “sheer violence and terror against its own population” had its days numbered, adding that “it could be a matter of weeks” before it lost legitimacy.
Plainclothes Iranian security forces have carried out thousands of arrests in recent days in a campaign aimed at deterring any renewed protests following the deadliest unrest since Iran’s 1979 revolution, Reuters reported, citing sources.
Security forces launched widespread arrests and intensified their street presence through checkpoints, five activists inside Iran told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. They said detainees were being taken to secret locations.
Similar accounts were provided to Reuters by lawyers, medics, witnesses and two Iranian officials, who said many detainees were being held in unofficial detention sites, including warehouses and other improvised locations.
The report cited two unnamed Iranian officials who confirmed that thousands of arrests had been carried out in recent days and said the judiciary was moving quickly to process cases.
