Iran International
The Islamic Republic has entered a decisive rupture, with intensifying protests and internet blackouts pointing to a government increasingly reliant on force — dynamics that senior Western officials and analysts suggested may mark the beginning of an endgame.
Demonstrations have spread across major cities and provinces despite a nationwide internet and phone blackout, with rights groups reporting at least 42 people killed and more than 2,000 arrested since unrest began.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Friday accused foreign powers of fueling the protests and warned demonstrators of severe punishment, as security forces fired live ammunition in several regions.
Tom Tugendhat, a British MP and former UK security minister, told Eye for Iran the moment reflects a system confronting its own limits.
“I think this is the end game for the regime,” Tugendhat said.
“What we’re watching is not whether or not the regime survives, but how many people does it try to kill?” he added.
His remarks came as Iranian prosecutors threatened protesters with charges carrying the death penalty, and the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence arm warned that the continuation of protests was “unacceptable.”
Western officials reassess as fear appears to erode
Early this week, US intelligence assessed that the protests lacked the momentum to threaten regime stability, US officials told Axios, but that assessment is now being reconsidered in light of recent developments.
“This is truly an extraordinary moment,” said Norman Roule, a former senior CIA official, who served as the national intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from 2008 to 2017.
“We are watching a regime that is clearly in its dying days,” Roule said.
Roule said the leadership’s response shows narrowing options.
“It’s a government that can sustain itself, but it’s incapable of decisions that can stop this,” he said.
US President Donald Trump has warned Iran’s authorities against killing demonstrators, praising Iranians as “brave people” and signaling consequences if repression escalates. European officials and the UN human rights chief have also condemned the crackdown and the communications blackout.
Policy analysts say the current unrest is not an isolated episode but part of a longer erosion of regime authority.
“The Iranian people have the singular ability to expose the regime for its illegitimacy,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran.
“Since 2017 onwards, the Iranian people have come to the conclusion that the Islamic Republic can’t be reformed and therefore has to be overthrown,” Brodsky said.
Journalist and author of Nuclear Iran David Patrikarakos said the protests differ fundamentally from earlier waves that focused on specific demands.
“These aren’t issue-based protests anymore. These are existential,” Patrikarakos said.
He said the leadership now faces a dangerous calculation. “If the Ayatollahs are tempted to think he’s bluffing, they should take a look at the ruins of their nuclear facilities,” he said, referring to recent US and Israeli strikes.
Protesters defy repression as blackout deepens
Verified videos circulating on social media show protesters confronting security forces in Tehran, Mashhad, Zahedan and other cities, even as authorities cut communications and deploy live fire.
One widely shared video shows a wounded protester declaring: “I’m not scared. For 47 years, I’ve been dead.”
The demonstrations have drawn participation across Iran’s political, ethnic and religious spectrum. Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi praised the nationwide turnout and urged coordinated nightly protests, while Sunni cleric Molavi Abdolhamid warned of deepening poverty and backed the demonstrations.
International pressure has continued to build. The UN human rights chief said he was “deeply disturbed” by reports of killings and internet shutdowns, while EU officials accused Tehran of using blackouts to conceal violence.
Despite uncertainty over how events will unfold, guests on Eye for Iran converged on a central conclusion: the Islamic Republic is confronting a crisis in which repression remains its primary instrument, even as its effectiveness appears increasingly uncertain.
You can watch Episode 85 of Eye for Iran on YouTube or Listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.
