Protesters at a major square in Tehran chant ‘Death to the dictator’

That assumption has been reinforced by recent developments in Venezuela, where the United States forcibly removed Nicolás Maduro from power and now appears prepared to work with figures from within the same governing apparatus.

But Iran is not Venezuela, and treating it as such misunderstands the nature of the Islamic Republic’s power structure.

In Venezuela, despite corruption and the concentration of power, the political system is not security-ideological and transnational in the way Iran’s is. Loyalties and alliances in Caracas can shift without forcing a fundamental remake of the establishment.

Can the same be said about Tehran?

Over the past four decades, the original theocracy has evolved into a complex security-ideological power machine whose core lies within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliated networks. This machine is not merely an instrument of the system; it has become inseparable from it.

The IRGC, the Quds Force, parallel intelligence bodies, and a web of armed groups across the region are better understood as a single, tightly interwoven power structure. Even the potential departure of Iran’s supreme leader would be unlikely to alter, let alone dismantle, this organism.

Ali Khamenei may embody the Islamic Republic, and his name is often used interchangeably with the “system,” but the state itself encompasses thousands of actors across the Revolutionary Guards, security institutions and affiliated bodies.

These networks have cooperated operationally with aligned forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan—working together in war, negotiation, and crisis management.

Other parts of the same apparatus have spent years developing missile and nuclear programs, accumulating expertise, institutional memory, and vested interests.

This is the product of a shared political and security life: a layered network in which relationships, trust, and interests have solidified over time. Such a network does not collapse with the departure of a single figure, or even a single faction.

Security relationships and interests built over decades are far more likely to reproduce themselves than to disappear with a leadership change. The leader may go, but the system’s underlying logic will remain.

That logic rests on several widely entrenched pillars: the expansion of the nuclear program; the development of missile and drone capabilities; the preservation and extension of regional proxy networks; and the definition of political identity in opposition to the United States and the West.

These are not merely policy preferences open to negotiation. They are widely treated within the system as pillars of survival. Betting on figures drawn from within this structure to shed their skin risks reproducing the very logic such a strategy claims to transcend.

The image of a moderate caretaker or a deal-making leader emerging as a Bonaparte-like figure capable of transforming the system is therefore closer to political fantasy than practical possibility.

Comparing Iran to Venezuela is ultimately a comparison between two dissimilar systems.

In Venezuela, alliances can shift while the structure remains intact. In Iran, the structure itself is the source of the crisis. The container and its contents are one and the same. A change of skin does not resolve that contradiction.

For Iranians—and for the wider world—the problem with the Islamic Republic cannot be solved by changing faces. A durable solution can only be contemplated when this structure gives way to an order that is fundamentally different, shaped by actors who are fundamentally different as well.

Millions of Iranians took the streets across the country for a national rally called by exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi.

Trump told podcaster Hugh Hewitt that the Iranian leaders "have been told very strongly… that if they do that, they’re going to have to pay hell.”

This is the third time since the start of protests on December 28 that Trump has warned Tehran not to kill demonstrators or face possible US intervention.

Addressing Iranians directly, he urged them to “feel strongly about freedom,” and said: “There’s nothing like freedom. You’re brave people. It’s a shame what’s happened to your country.”

Protesters in Iran have appealed directly to Trump for protection. Rights groups say at least 36 people have been killed since the protests began on December, while more than 2,000 people have been arrested or detained.

A nationwide internet blackout hit Iran on Thursday according to live network metrics from network monitoring groups.

Asked if he would meet exiled Prince Pahlavi, Trump said he still waits to see what happens in Iran before meeting or endorsing any opposition figure.

"Well, I've watched him, and he seems like a nice person, but I'm not sure that it would be appropriate at this point to do that as President," Trump responded. "I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges. I'm not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do."

‘US Back people of Iran’

Vice President JD Vance said the administration stands by “anybody who is engaged in peaceful protests” and seeking to exercise “their rights of free association and to have their voices heard,” including in Iran.

"Obviously, the Iranian regime has a lot of problems, as the President of the United States has said, the smartest thing for them to have done, it was true two months ago, it's true today, is for them to actually have a real negotiation with the United States about what we need to see when it comes to their nuclear program," Vance said to reporters at the White House.

"I'll let the President speak to what we're going to do in the future. But we certainly stand with anybody across the world, including the Iranian people, who are advocating for their rights,” he added.

Senator Bill Hagerty said on Thursday that the Islami Republic continues subjugating and oppressing its people, adding that the protesters will decide their own future.

"I sadly say the Iranian regime is doing what it has always been doing, subjugating the people of Iran. I think the American people are for the people of Iran, we always have been. And the regime, the Ayatollahs, continue to again subjugate and oppress the people; it is very disappointing,” he told Iran International.

"I think the Iranian people need to make that decision, but these types of actions certainly do not speak well, don’t bode well for the current regime, and it is obvious to the rest of the world how the Iranian people are being treated,” the Republican senator from Tennessee said.

US-based Iranian activist Masih Alinejad said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday that Elon Musk should deploy his Starlink technology to restore internet in the country which had apparently been subject to a near-blackout by authorities.

"I think President Trump right now can talk to Elon Musk to provide Starlink for people," she said. "I want President Trump to actually take actions and show a signal to the regime that the United States of America is stop appeasing like previous presidents."

Nationwide protests gripped the country on Thursday despite a violent crackdown by security forces.

"The US government, Europeans, they must have a plan for post-Islamic Republic and be ready to help Iranians to have a smooth transition from this dictatorship to a secular democracy," she added.

"That is the demand of millions of people. This regime is no longer can be reformed."

Republican Congressman Carlos Gimenez has expressed support for protesters in Iran, sharing a video of a crowd of demonstrators in Tehran.

“God bless the brave people of Iran on the streets demanding freedom & an end to the brutal regime,” the Republican House member from Florida posted on X on Thursday.