Iran International
No one can say with certainty whether the current protests will spiral into a revolution. But analysts tell Eye for Iran it is becoming harder to ignore signs that Iran’s theocracy may be entering a period of repeated crises that challenge its ability to function as a state.
Some analysts now warn that Iran may be entering the early stages of regime collapse — not through a single dramatic event, but through a slow erosion of state capacity.
What makes this round different is not only the fury in the streets. It is the growing uncertainty within the clerical establishment, which is leaning more heavily on coercion while projecting less confidence than before.
The protests began with the plunging rial. They have since widened into a broader test of whether the government can still manage a country living in constant crisis. Demonstrations that started in Tehran’s electronics markets have spread across provinces, bazaars and campuses, with chants increasingly aimed at the ruling system itself.
Live fire and deaths have fueled anger, while rare scenes in a religious city like Qom and other cities show crowds refusing to retreat.
A system running out of answers
Shayan Samii, a former US government appointee said the anger goes beyond economic hardship — it reflects a belief that the future has narrowed.
“They are upset because the value of their currency has gone down the drain,” he said. “There is nothing to look forward to.”
That sense of closure, he argued, is what pushes ordinary Iranians to take risks despite repression — a difficult dynamic for a state that relies heavily on deterrence and coercion.
Journalist and author Arash Azizi described protests appearing not only in major cities but in towns once seen as politically quiet.
“There is discontent everywhere,” he said — but protesters “lack leadership” and “lack organization.”
Without that, he warned, unrest can erupt and fade without producing structural change, even as each round leaves the system more brittle.
From an intelligence perspective, Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch in Israeli military intelligence, said the deeper issue is not simply mismanagement but the absence of any workable path forward.
“The main problem the regime has is that it has no silver-bullet solution to the economic problems in Iran,” he said. Even if authorities find temporary fixes, “the problem will stay.”
Economic calm, in other words, may only pause — not resolve the crisis.
Cracks inside the ruling class
It is not only public anger that is shifting, said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute but the mood among elites themselves.
“I have certainly not ever seen this level of hopelessness inside the Iranian regime,” he said.
That kind of discouragement, he added, can be more consequential than unrest alone, opening space for miscalculations and internal rivalries that become harder to contain.
Former US State Department official Alan Eyre cautioned against assuming outside forces can engineer rapid political change.
“Regime change is wildly improbable in Iran right now,” he said — warning that intense external pressure could strengthen hard-liners or push Iran toward greater militarization.
His remarks followed comments by Donald Trump that the United States was “locked and loaded” if Iranian authorities kill protesters — language that energized some activists while raising fears of escalation among others.
Why this wave feels different
Bozorgmehr Sharafeddin, head of Iran International Digital, argued that this round cuts deeper because it points to a crisis of state survival rather than policy error.
“This protest is not about inflation,” he said. “This is about the collapse of the Iranian economy.”
He also noted that international reaction came immediately — a contrast with earlier cycles when global attention arrived more cautiously and later.
Across the conversation, one theme recurred: the state still has the means to suppress dissent — but it is doing so with increasing uncertainty about what comes next.
Protesters are directing anger at the foundations of clerical power, not merely the officials administering policy. Reform promises carry less credibility. And senior figures themselves acknowledge problems they cannot easily fix.
That does not guarantee revolution and it does not mean collapse will come overnight. But analysts say a government that relies primarily on coercion while showing visible doubt from within no longer projects stability.
What emerges, they warn, is a system still capable of force yet less certain of itself with every passing crisis.
You can watch Episode 84 of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.
Washington would step in if protesters are violently killed, Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
“If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” he wrote. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
Protests turn deadly
Trump’s remarks came as protests in Iran reached a fifth consecutive day on Thursday, with at least seven protesters reported killed by security forces. Demonstrations spread to new cities, including the clerical stronghold of Qom, where crowds openly called for the downfall of the theocracy.
Earlier, a US official said the protests reflect deep public anger at years of government failure. In a written statement on Thursday, a spokesperson for the United States Department of State described the unrest as an expression of the Iranian people’s “understandable anger.”
“The protests reflect the understandable anger of the Iranian people at their government's failures and excuses,” the official said, accusing Tehran of neglecting the economy, agriculture, water and electricity for decades while “squandering billions on terrorist proxies and nuclear weapons research.” The statement also cited Iran’s involvement in acts of “terrorism against the United States and its allies.”
Demonstrations were reported across dozens of locations, from Tehran and Isfahan to Lorestan, Mazandaran, Khuzestan, Hamadan and Fars. Protesters chanted slogans directly targeting the ruling system and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Pro-monarchy slogans dominated many rallies, highlighting how the unrest has moved beyond economic grievances into open political defiance. Security forces used live fire in several cities, including Nurabad in Lorestan and Hamedan in western Iran, where videos showed officers shooting at demonstrators who remained in the streets despite the crackdown.
The Ministry of Defence Export Center, known as Mindex, presents itself as the export arm of Iran’s defense ministry. It advertises more than 3,000 products across categories including armaments, rockets and missiles, aviation, marine platforms, and radar and optical systems.
The portal’s payment terms say contracts can be settled using “digital currencies,” local currencies in the buyer’s country and barter arrangements, alongside more traditional bank transfers.
Mindex’s online platform, hosted on an Iranian cloud provider already blacklisted by Washington, says decades of experience in overseas sales and says it works with a number of foreign clients.
A frequently asked questions section reassures potential buyers that “given the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding circumvention of sanctions, there is no problem in implementing the contract,” and promises that purchased products will reach their destination “as soon as possible,” FT reported.
According to the center’s own “About us” page, Mindex began its marketing activity in 1989 and is “affiliated to the Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics,” (MODAFL) a ministry that has been under US sanctions since 2007 for supporting Iran’s missile and conventional arms programs.
Washington has repeatedly targeted MODAFL‑linked front companies and procurement networks, warning that foreign entities supplying or buying military hardware through such channels risk secondary sanctions and potential exclusion from the US financial system.
Recent US designations have also singled out Iran‑linked “shadow banking” and crypto networks accused of helping Tehran move money for oil and weapons sales outside formal banking channels, underscoring the risks for buyers using digital assets to pay Mindex.
US Treasury in recent months has sanctioned multiple Iran‑linked networks accused of using front companies and alternative payment channels to facilitate weapons transfers to partners such as Russia and Venezuela, warning that digital currencies do not shield transactions from enforcement.
