Iran risks sliding deeper into economic and security crises without a fundamental change in its governing approach, a former Revolutionary Guards commander said, adding that he sees no sign the leadership is prepared to make such a shift.
“I have seen no indication that the ruling system wants to change its paradigm,” Alaei said in a video interview with the news site Entekhab, published on Monday. “The current situation shows that previous policies and strategies have not worked.”
Alaei said sanctions had left Iran unable to export freely or access the global banking system, while the domestic economy remained dominated by the state, despite what he described as historical evidence that state-led economic models do not succeed.
“We cannot export normally and we have no access to the world’s banking system,” he said. “At the same time, the economy is still run by the state, even though human experience shows such models fail.”
He said Iran could still pursue a change in direction but argued that parts of the ruling establishment viewed any paradigm shift as a retreat from core values. Others, he added, believed revising failed strategies was itself a way of safeguarding the country’s fundamental principles.
Alaei also warned that the United States and Israel were moving toward what he described as a “Plan B,” centered on intensifying sanctions to worsen economic conditions, trigger unrest and potentially justify military intervention – unless Iran addressed domestic economic mismanagement and recalibrated its foreign policy.
He said a diplomatic opening could still be possible if the United States were to lift all sanctions, even under current political conditions.
