Iran International
Moderate voices in Tehran are warning that the public’s quiet endurance of Israeli strikes should not be mistaken for support for the Islamic Republic, and that reconciliation—if still possible—will require drastic change.
During the 12-day war with Israel, many inside Iran stood by their country under fire, moderates argue—but not by its ruling establishment.
“If anyone assumes that public support stems from satisfaction with the status quo, they are making a strategic mistake—one that could discourage the people and embolden the enemy,” prominent reformist Saeed Hajjarian told Ham-Mihan daily.
Hajjarian emphasized that the wartime unity was born of “patriotism, not nationalism,” and warned it may not be sustainable.
“Nationalism is the product of a state that genuinely cares about its nation,” Hajjarian said. “We have not yet reached that stage. The state must win the hearts of the people.”
Some exiled opposition groups had anticipated mass unrest during the conflict. It did not transpire, moderates say, due to fear, exhaustion, and alienation from both the state and its challengers—not support for the Islamic Republic.
Ali Soufi, another senior reformist, said the burden now lies with the ruling establishment.“Just as the people and political factions stepped in unconditionally, the system must not turn a blind eye—it must carry out reforms.”
A key demand is the release of political prisoners. From Mir Hossein Mousavi—still under house arrest—to jailed figures like Mostafa Tajzadeh, their continued detention is seen as a barrier to unity.
In a recent statement, Mousavi renewed his call for a referendum to convene a constitutional assembly, arguing Iran’s current political structure no longer represents all of its people.
Political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi warned that unity forged under external threat cannot survive if critics remain silenced. Days later, Tajzadeh’s sentence was extended by another five years, bringing his total to 17.
Public skepticism runs deep
It remains unclear how much traction these reformist demands have among ordinary Iranians. In recent protest waves, a popular slogan has been: “Reformist, hardliner, the game is over.”
For many, the chant reflects rejection of the entire political spectrum, including moderates.
Reformists point out that even long-detained Green Movement leaders joined the call to defend the country during the war. Their gesture, they argue, shows reconciliation is still possible—but only if the state takes bold steps.
While reformists frame prisoner releases as a national imperative, many Iranians appear more focused on daily hardship, corruption, and social restrictions.
Independent analysts echo this gap, warning of widespread “chronic distrust.”
“Unless the government addresses discrimination, injustice … corruption, lack of transparency, and social inequality … national cohesion will remain fragile and conditional,” political analyst Hadi Alami Fariman wrote in Arman Melli.
Even some within the establishment are issuing similar warnings.
“The mistaken belief should never arise among our officials that ‘whenever an attack occurs, the people will still be present on the scene,’” conservative politician Abolghasem Raoufian cautioned.
