Citing data from energy analytics firm Vortexa, the report said loadings peaked at 2.5 million bpd during the first 12 days of June, just before Israel launched surprise attacks on Iran on June 13. The rapid increase reflected efforts by traders to secure supply amid fears of geopolitical escalation and speculation of imminent attacks.
“What June data reveals is a faster and more flexible workaround to secure feedstock in the face of perceived supply disruptions,” said Emma Li, senior market analyst at Vortexa. She added that ongoing US sanctions on Iranian tankers are unlikely to significantly curb oil flows.
Despite the spike, imports are expected to ease in July as Chinese independent refiners—known as “teapots”—reduce crude processing due to thin margins. Average run rates at these refiners have dropped to around 46%, according to MysteelOilchem – a market data provider for the energy and chemical industries in China.
Ample inventories of Iranian oil and reduced demand are weakening Iran's position. "Private refiners now have more room to negotiate deeper discounts," Li said. Iranian crude is currently offered at around $4 per barrel below Brent futures, compared to $2 below Brent in May, according to Vortexa’s analyst.
China remains the largest buyer of Iranian oil, which continues to flow despite US sanctions, largely through discreet shipments and trading intermediaries.