Historic chance for change in Iran—but only if strategy follows, experts warn

The Houthis' official X account posted in Hebrew on Sunday morning, warning Israelis to “leave the country immediately”, with a video of a missile launching and scenes of destruction in Israel from Iran’s recent missile attacks.

Houthis recently brokered a ceasefire with the Trump administration and agreed to cease attacks on US ships and assets in the Red Sea region. In the early hours of Sunday, the ceasefire was over.

"We will officially enter the war - keep your ships away from our territorial waters," an announcement from the group said.

The Houthis had been waging a maritime blockade since the early weeks of the Gaza war in 2023, in what it says is allegiance with the Palestinians in Gaza.

An Israeli intelligence source told Iran International that given the complexity of striking US assets, the Houthis, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US and others, are more likely to target Israel first.

'Not a big deal'

“It’s a bit early to say but the Houthis would prefer to target Israel first, it’s less complex at this stage, but it’s hard to tell. The next 24 hours will be revealing,” he said.

“There is no major threat from the Houthis,” the intelligence source added. “They’re limited in their capability and while they will try to retaliate for the current situation, it is not a big deal.”

The Israeli military says that more than 40 surface-to-surface missiles have been fired towards Israel since the Gaza war began, with one barely missing Israel’s biggest airport, Ben Gurion, just weeks ago.

Another 320 UAVs had been fired towards Israel, over 100 of which intercepted with two effective hits as of January data. The remainder fell in open areas, failed to reach Israeli territory or caused no significant damage.

Yemeni military journalist Rashid Maarouf, based in Marib city, told Iran International on Sunday that the Houthis' next steps will depend on the extent of the impact of the American strikes on Iran's nuclear reactors.

Targeting Arab nations

He also agrees the group's capabilities are limited. “They are launching missiles at Israel, but the Houthis' missiles are limited. They do not have a large number to launch a large salvo like Iran does. Even if the Houthis struck Israel, they would not be able to strike with more than two to three missiles a day.”

Abdul Basit Al-Baher, the spokesman for Yemen's military in the governorate of Taiz, told Iran International: "The Houthis are in the crosshairs of the US-Iranian escalation, between the tool and the victim."

He says the US attacks on Iran will require the Houthis to launch new attacks on American or associated ships, using drones or missiles, in an attempt to divert attention from the US strike on Iran and to pressure Washington to halt any potential escalation against Tehran.

It may also trigger attacks on Saudi or Emirati targets, the two nations strong US allies, Al-Baher said.

"They are expected to attempt to expand the scope of the confrontation by targeting Arab coalition countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to send a message that any targeting of Iran will destabilize the entire region," he said.

He warns that the most dangerous scenario would be full engagement in a "proxy war", Iran activating its regional military allies.

"If Iran decides to respond forcefully, it may use the Houthis as an offensive force against Western interests in the Red Sea," he said, including special attacks on commercial and military vessels or even an attempt to threaten oil and energy corridors."

The strikes, carried out under the direct orders of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, focused on “regime targets and government repression bodies,” according to the Israeli Ministry of Defense.

Among the locations hit were the main gate and administrative buildings of Evin Prison.

There were no reported casualties among inmates, although several staff members were killed, according to information shared with Iran International.

Sources inside the facility confirmed to Iran International that office buildings, visitation areas, and judicial chambers were damaged in the strike.

Following the attack, families of political prisoners and local residents attempted to approach the site, according to witness accounts shared online.

Evin Prison, constructed in the 1970s, has long been associated with political detention and has housed journalists, activists, and dual nationals.

Strikes target multiple security bases

In addition to Evin, Israeli forces also struck a number of other prominent security and ideological institutions across Tehran and its suburbs.

Iran and Israel have not released an official list of the targets. Witness reports said they included the Basij headquarters, part of the IRGC’s paramilitary force, involved in controlling protests; the Tharallah Base (also known as Sarallah Base), an elite IRGC unit responsible for managing civil unrest in the capital; and the Seyyed al-Shohada IRGC base, a key provincial force in Alborz province, as well as the Intelligence Directorate of the national police.

Additionally, Iranian media reported strikes on the state media complex “9 Dey”, a technical hub for Iran’s national broadcasting system, including TV and radio transmission facilities.

Israel says goal is not regime change — but won’t rule out consequences

Israeli officials said on Monday again that the objective of the strikes is deterrence. “Our objective in Iran is not regime change,” a government spokesperson said on Monday. “But that may be the byproduct.”

Israeli Defense Minister Katz added, “For every shot fired at the Israeli home front, the Iranian dictator will be punished, and the attacks will continue with full force. We will continue until our war objectives are fully achieved.”

While Israel has previously struck infrastructure linked to Iran’s domestic security apparatus — including the headquarters of the Special Forces unit of the Islamic Republic’s Internal Security Forces and a main building of the state broadcaster IRIB — the latest campaign marks an escalation in the scope and scale of such attacks.

This wave of airstrikes has more explicitly targeted what Israeli officials describe as the “repression infrastructure” of the Islamic Republic— the institutions at the core of political surveillance, ideological enforcement, and suppression of dissent.

Tensions in the region remain high, with commercial shipping already diverting away from the Strait of Hormuz and Western governments reviewing security postures amid fears of a broader escalation.

According to data collected by rights group HRANA, 950 people were killed and 3,450 injured across Iran as of Monday. In Israel, 24 people were killed and over 2,500 injured.

But is he truly preparing to loosen his four-decades grip on Iran?

Khamenei has named three senior clerics as potential successors in case he is killed during the war with Israel, the New York Times reported Saturday, citing Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans.

Last week, Iran International reported that the 86-year-old leader has delegated authority to the Revolutionary Guards’ high command, effectively empowering the IRGC to manage critical decisions if he dies.

While these steps fall short of a formal emergency decree, they suggest an extraordinary contingency effort as missile exchanges between Israel and Iran enter a second week. Khamenei’s move appears aimed at ensuring continuity of command in the event he is incapacitated or killed.

Defiant messaging, emergency measures

Following the leader’s line, President Massoud Pezeshkian also ordered cabinet ministers last week to delegate some authority to deputies and senior managers.

Yet even as both leaders brace for escalation, Khamenei struck a defiant tone on June 18.

“Normal life is going on in Iran,” he said, rejecting retreat in what appeared to be a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.”

If the IRGC power-sharing reports are accurate, they could mark one of the most significant shifts in Iran’s post-revolution political order. For nearly four decades, Khamenei has centralized power—political, religious, military, and economic—around his office.

A legacy of control—and a quiet succession talk

Even Iran’s clerical seminaries, once independent and funded by religious donations, now fall under state control. Since 1989, Khamenei has turned clerics and seminarians into government employees, paid by his office and subject to dismissal if their loyalty is questioned.

As commander-in-chief, Khamenei exercises unilateral authority over military matters, bypassing the Majles on decisions of war and peace.

He also controls the state broadcaster IRIB, directing both leadership and editorial content. His office oversees several Tehran dailies and scores of newspapers nationwide—all part of a state-aligned media network.

Khamenei’s economic vision, framed around his concept of a “Resistance Economy,” has similarly concentrated power.

Though cabinet ministers exist, all major financial decisions—especially the annual budget—are dictated by his office. Massive state-linked economic conglomerates dominate the landscape and stifle the private sector.

In recent years, he has further sidelined parliament, issuing implicit directives that override legislation and block ministerial impeachments.

Succession has long been the Islamic Republic’s most sensitive—and unspoken—question. Few dared to discuss it openly. But in recent years, and especially in the current crisis, the topic has crept into public discourse.

Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, is frequently floated in both establishment and opposition circles, though never officially acknowledged.

The Israeli strikes have made the issue more urgent.

One can imagine the question of who—or what—comes next, and whether that includes a possible thaw with the United States, being debated in private among Iran’s ruling elite. But no one dares say it aloud. Not yet.

State television, dominated by ultra-hardliners, signaled escalation just hours after the attack.

“The Islamic Republic is no longer bound by red lines and considers all US military bases in the region legitimate targets,” ane anchor declared,

On platforms aligned with the regime, the rhetoric was even more aggressive.

“It is now our turn to act without delay,” wrote Hossein Shariatmadari, supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s representative at Kayhan newspaper.

“As a first step, we must launch a missile strike on the US naval fleet in Bahrain and simultaneously close the Strait of Hormuz to American, British, German, and French ships.”

'Beware the consequences'

But many moderate voices warned that such a drastic move would only place Iran in a more perilous position.

“Closing the Strait of Hormuz would drag neighboring countries—and even players like China and India—into direct confrontation with Iran,” journalist Ehsan Bodaghi posted on X. “Does our country have the capacity to endure that scale of conflict and hostility?”

Perhaps the most prominent figure to urge calm and foresight was former president Mohammad Khatami.

“All decisions, positions, and diplomatic or defensive actions must be taken with wisdom and long-term thinking, free from emotional reactions or a pure desire for revenge,” he was quoted as saying by reformist outlet Jamaran.

Economist and former official Reza Kashef echoed the call with a Gandhi quote: “True power lies in self-restraint and patience, not in hasty reactions.”

Ordinary Iranians silenced

A nationwide internet shutdown has sharply reduced the volume of public online discussion.

While insiders—hardliners, in particular—often retain privileged access, ordinary Iranians—and even moderate insiders—have been effectively silenced. The imbalance has further amplified hardline voices in the post-Fordo narrative.

“The main issue is that the US has officially entered a war with Iran, and Iran's deterrence will be lost if it does not respond strongly,” ultra-hardline MP Amir-Hossein Sabeti posted on X.

Abdollah Ganji, former editor of IRGC-linked daily Javan, was more specific—and dramatic.

Tehran’s actions should be withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, expelling UN inspectors and the silence. “This silence,” he posted on X, “will become the sound of a very powerful bomb explosion, and they will come to you with concessions.”

Activist Hatef Salehi posted a map of US bases in neighboring countries with the caption: “Which one should we strike first?”

Another reason such voices appear to have dominated in the past day or two is the risk built into advocating restraint.

Publicly questioning the wisdom of retaliation can be construed as contradicting Khamenei’s stance—and in the current wartime atmosphere, that carries serious consequences.

Still, some tried to tread the minefield.

“Most patriots don’t want to dampen the nation’s spirit during times of aggression,” prominent tech leader Nima Namdari posted on X. “But the realities of war … and our understanding of those in power make it impossible not to worry about the decision-making process.”

“So what’s the solution, really,” he asked, “should we just remain silent?”

"The punishment continues," a post on the 86-year old leader's X account wrote.

"The Zionist enemy has made a grave mistake, committed a major crime; it must be punished—and it is being punished. It is being punished right now. #AllahuAkbar".

No mention was made of the United States in his remarks, the first since US President Donald Trump proudly declared his forces had bombed three nuclear sites.

His post came as Israeli military authorities said only a single missile was fired at it by Iran in an attack overnight, in a possible sign of depleted power.

The day after the attack, the hawkish president upped the ante yet again, suggesting regime change would be welcome if Tehran could not "Make Iran Great Again".

"It’s not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,' but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" Trump wrote.

Protests

Protests were held on Sunday in far-flung cities against the US attack on Iran's nuclear sites, including in Los Angeles, Karachi and outside a NATO meeting at The Hague.

Russia's United Nations ambassador Vassily Nebenzia hit out a what he called a rerun of the US Iraq War, based on weapons of mass destruction which were never found.

"Again we're being asked to believe the US's fairy tales, to once again inflict suffering on millions of people living in the Middle East," Nebenzia said.

US President Donald signaled he would accept little opposition as he tore into a lawmaker critic from his own Republican party on social media.

Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie had called out Trump, saying on X:"This is not America First folks.

What war wrought

Israel's attacks on Iran have so far killed 950 people and injured 3,450, human rights group HRANA reported on Sunday.

Meanwhile no clear picture had yet emerged on the impact of US attacks and whether it achieved its goal of ending Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The UN nuclear watchdog said Sunday that entrances to underground tunnels at Iran’s Isfahan nuclear complex were damaged in the strikes.

“We have established that entrances to underground tunnels at the site were impacted,” the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a statement.

The IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told CNN it was too early to assess the underground damage to Iran's Fordow site.

Iranian defiance

Iran's foreign minister arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin after appearing to vow Iranian retaliation in Turkey.

"The US crossed a very big red line by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities," Abbas Araghchi said. Speaking in Istanbul, Araghchi said the US bore full responsibility.

“The attack on peaceful nuclear installations marks a dangerous precedent and will not go unanswered."

Relative moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian also promised a rejoinder.

“The US has attacked us. What would you do if you were in our position? Naturally, they must receive a response to their aggression,” Pezeshkian said.

Veteran security insider Ali Shamkhani said the strikes would not sink Iran's nuclear enterprise.

“Even if nuclear sites are destroyed, the game isn’t over... enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, and political will remain,” Shamkhani said on X.

“The initiative is now with the side that plays smart, avoids blind strikes. Surprises will continue!”