As US talks stall, skeptics in Tehran raise their voices

Speaking at the US-GCC summit in Riyadh, Trump said, “I want to make a deal with Iran. But for that to happen, it must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars and permanently and verifiably cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.”

Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Last month, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, said: “Iran is not far from having a nuclear problem. They don’t have it, we know it, but the material for it is already there. To make a few warheads.”

Trump accused his predecessor, President Joe Biden, of emboldening Iran and undermining US allies in the Persian Gulf. “Everyone at this table knows where my loyalties are,” he said. “Those days are over.”

The summit in Riyadh took place during the first leg of Trump’s tour of the Persian Gulf as the US seeks to revitalize ties with regional allies and broker new economic and security partnerships. Trump traveled to Doha on Wednesday.

During the visit in Riyadh, Trump also announced a $600-billion investment agreement with Saudi Arabia, covering sectors from energy and defense to mining and technology.

On Tuesday, Trump, speaking before Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other top Saudi and US officials, delivered a wide-ranging speech criticizing Iran while expressing willingness to strike a new nuclear deal.

Framing Tehran as the main obstacle to regional peace, Trump said, “The biggest and most destructive of these forces is the regime in Iran,” blaming it for destabilizing Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Yemen.

He contrasted Iran’s decline with the Persian Gulf’s growth, noting that while “you have been constructing the world’s tallest skyscrapers,” Iran’s infrastructure is “collapsing into rubble.”

“If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch,” he warned, the US would impose massive maximum pressure to stop it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Iranian officials swiftly pushed back. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting in Tehran on Wednesday, dismissed Trump’s remarks as provocative and misleading.

“Trump tries to portray Iran as the source of insecurity. But who killed 60,000 people in Gaza? Are we the ones spreading chaos?” Araghchi asked, in comments aired by state television, referring to US support of Israel in its war on Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.

He rejected Trump’s threat of renewed pressure, saying, “The policy of maximum pressure has already failed.”

Araghchi added that Iran remains committed to dialogue and is awaiting further coordination by Oman, which has been mediating backchannel talks between Tehran and Washington.

“It is America that, through its sanctions over the past forty-some years, along with its pressures and its military and non-military threats, has hindered the progress of the Iranian nation; the one responsible for the economic problems is America,” he said.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei also denied that nuclear negotiations were at an impasse.

“The fact that both Iran and the US want the talks to continue means the negotiation process is still ongoing,” he said.

He said details about the next round of talks will be announced by Oman soon.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday evening, “If we stand together, America will be powerless against us.”

In a surprise move during his stay in Riyadh, Trump also announced the lifting of US sanctions on Syria, following a landmark meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa—the first such encounter between leaders of the two nations in over two decades.

“We’re taking them all off. Good luck Syria, show us something very special,” Trump said at a US-Saudi investment forum.

The US leader also touted a recent ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, a key Iran ally, and a diplomatic breakthrough in South Asia, where American mediation reportedly helped de-escalate tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.

As the summit convened on Wednesday, Saudi Foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said Riyadh fully supports the US-Iran nuclear talks and hopes for positive results.

"Regarding the nuclear file, there is full support for the ongoing talks between the United States and Iran. We hope that these talks will lead to a positive outcome that ensures the stability of the region."

Oman’s Deputy Prime Minister for International Affairs, Al Sayyid Asaad Tariq Taimur Al Said, also expressed optimism that a nuclear deal with Iran could still be reached.

Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa echoed that sentiment, saying continued dialogue would “bolster stability and improve prosperity across the region.”

Whether Oman’s mediation can bridge the divide remains to be seen.

Before traveling to Saudi Arabia on May 12, Trump reaffirmed his opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, while praising Iranian negotiators for being, in his words, very reasonable and very intelligent.

Despite pillorying Tehran at length in a speech in Saudi Arabia the next day, the comments suggested an openness to continued dialogue—even amid mounting pressure from within his own ranks.

Trump’s position reflects a carrot-and-stick strategy: applying sanctions while keeping the door open for a potential deal. Yet, internal divisions are growing.

Middle East envoy and chief negotiator Steven Witkoff told Breitbart last week that no level of uranium enrichment should take place in Iran—opposing the allowances made under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Witkoff’s remarks echo those of hawkish Republicans who reject even limited enrichment under international monitoring. Witkoff once again aligned himself with that position, signaling that any new deal could be more restrictive than the 2015 deal.

In the same interview, however, Witkoff distanced himself from advocates of military action, accusing them of a “bias toward war.” He emphasized that Trump prioritizes diplomacy, arguing that critics underestimate the risks of armed confrontation.

The messaging—hardline on enrichment, moderate on military force—underscores the absence of a unified Republican policy.

Trump himself has sent conflicting signals. In an interview with Hugh Hewitt on 7 May, he reaffirmed his desire to end Iran’s uranium enrichment but also indicated a willingness to hear justification for maintaining some nuclear infrastructure.

Elusive positions

A week—and one more round of talks—later, we are none the wiser about the Trump administration’s red lines.

US vice president J.D. Vance has taken a more flexible position, suggesting a tightly monitored, limited centrifuge program could be acceptable. His stance diverges from that of US secretary of state Marco Rubio and Witkoff’s latest, betraying disagreement at the very top.

In Tehran, the message has been more consistent—in public at least. The right to enrich uranium is non-negotiable, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X on the eve of the fourth round of talks.

Enrichment, in reality, is what gives supreme leader Ali Khamenei the leverage he has always sought to face his western ‘enemies.’

Khamenei’s strategy, as far as can be surmised from his decisions in the last two decades, is to remain close to the nuclear threshold without crossing it, standing on the brink without falling into the abyss of war.

Despite this impasse, both sides agreed to extend the negotiations, signaling a desire to avoid blame for their collapse. Still, the fundamental disagreement over enrichment remains unresolved.

Witkoff has also called for the talks to address Iran’s regional conduct, particularly its support for armed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. He argues any deal should reduce the Islamic Republic’s hostile actions against the US and Israel.

These positions are yet to be formalized, but the rulers in Tehran appear to have used whatever influence they have with the Houthis to calm the Red Sea and ease pressure on Iran’s negotiators.

But the link between nuclear diplomacy and regional security remains tenuous.

Fraught issue

Historically, the US strategy on Iran’s nuclear program has fluctuated. The Bush administration failed to enforce a zero-enrichment model; the Obama administration accepted a 3.67% cap to delay Iran’s breakout capacity. Trump’s second-term ambitions appear to aim higher—but face the same practical limits.

UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi asserted recently that completely eliminating Iran’s program may no longer be achievable.

Also significant is public opinion in the US. In a recent poll by the University of Maryland, more than two-thirds of respondents said they preferred a negotiated deal to curb Iran’s nuclear activities, with only 14% backing military action.

On this point at least, and for now, President Trump appears to be reflecting the popular will, letting diplomacy run its course while pursuing his maximum pressure campaign of sanctions, hoping to force Iranians to blink first.

Unclear to nearly all watching the talks—and perhaps even to those involved in it—is how far and how long he is willing to go without visible results.

Tehran as obstacle to regional peace

"The only thing still standing between this region and its unbelievable potential was a small group of rogue actors and violent thugs seeking constantly to drag the Middle East backward and into havoc, mayhem and indeed, into war. Unfortunately, instead of confronting these destructive forces, the last US administration chose to enrich them and empower them and give them billions and billions of dollars.

"Our task is to unify against the few agents of chaos and terror that are left and that are holding hostage the dreams of millions and millions of great people.

"The biggest and most destructive of these forces is the regime in Iran, which has caused unthinkable suffering in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Yemen and beyond. There could be no sharper contrast with the path you have pursued on the Arabian Peninsula than the disaster unfolding right across in the Gulf in Iran."

A Persian Gulf of contrasts

"While you have been constructing the world's tallest skyscrapers in Jeddah and Dubai, Tehran's 1979 landmarks are collapsing into rubble and they had it going for a little while under a much different system but those buildings are largely falling apart.

"Iran's decades of neglect and mismanagement have left the country plagued by rolling blackouts lasting for hours a day ... While your skill has turned dry deserts into fertile farmland, Iran's leaders have managed to turn green farmland into dry deserts as their corrupt water mafia ... causes droughts and empty river beds. They get rich."

Syria and Lebanon

"Countless lives were lost in the Iranian effort to maintain a crumbling regime in Syria. Look at what happened with Syria and Lebanon, their Hezbollah proxies have pillaged the hopes of a nation whose capital Beirut was once called the Paris of the Middle East.

"Can you imagine all of this misery and so much more was entirely avoidable?

"If only the Iranian regime had focused on building their nation up instead of tearing the region down.

"In Syria, which has seen so much misery and death, there is a new government that will hopefully succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace. That's what we want to see in Syria, they've had their share of travesty, war killing many years.

"I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance."

Enmity or peace with Iran

"In the case of Iran, I have never believed in having permanent enemies. I am different than a lot of people think. I don't like permanent enemies ... I want to make a deal with Iran.

"But if Iran's leadership rejects this olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure drive Iranian oil exports to zero like I did before."

"(The US will) take all action required to stop the regime from ever having a nuclear weapon."

“There will be no such thing as production if we cut off the supply of gas in winter and electricity in summer to industries,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Monday, justifying the decision to shield factories and major production centers from the worst of the power cuts.

“So instead of imposing power cuts solely on industries, we have directed some of it to domestic consumption.”

Iran is currently facing a peak-hour electricity deficit of around 20,000 megawatts. With the summer heat intensifying and water levels in hydropower dams at historic lows due to years of drought, power outages—both scheduled and unexpected—have become routine.

The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian blames inherited problems for the shortage. In parliamentary hearings for his cabinet approval in August last year, energy policy dominated the debate.

Lawmakers voiced concern at the time that the growing electricity gap could bring more severe blackouts and industrial shutdowns than before.

Economic survival over public comfort

The move to protect industry over residential demand is a calculated risk. Iran's manufacturing sector, already battered by sanctions, inflation, and a volatile exchange rate, is considered too critical to fail.

If industries grind to a halt, Iran risks deeper economic stagnation. But if public resentment continues to grow amid daily blackouts, the political costs could be just as severe.

Many industries, including cement plants and steel factories, which require uninterrupted energy for their kilns and machinery, are particularly vulnerable to power cuts.

The total annual loss from power cuts to the steel industry last year, according to the head of the Isfahan Chamber of Commerce, Amir Kashani, was estimated at around $4 billion.

Power cuts affecting daily lives

Widespread dissatisfaction is mounting, as daily life for millions is disrupted by blackouts as the daily power cuts are more than an inconvenience—they are a source of hardship, danger, and economic loss in the lives of millions of ordinary Iranians.

Social media is filled with videos and reports of people trapped in elevators, traffic lights failing and causing massive jams, and water not reaching upper floors of apartment buildings due to non-functional pumps.

Mobile phone signals have also been affected, as network operators are forced to shut down towers to prevent equipment damage when backup batteries run out.

Many small businesses, including bakeries, restaurants and cafes and grocery stores, report spoilage of perishable goods, compounding their financial strain.

Adding to the frustration, the government has shifted working hours for state offices to 6:00 AM in an effort to avoid peak hours, a move that has caused widespread disruption for employees and service recipients alike.

On Monday, authorities announced that school hours would also be adjusted to follow this new schedule.

A long-term crisis years in the making

Experts argue that Iran’s electricity shortage is not a sudden development but the result of decades of mismanagement and underinvestment.

Despite having the world’s second-largest reserves of natural gas, Iran has failed to expand its generation capacity or modernize its energy infrastructure.

“This crisis did not arise overnight, nor can it be solved in the short term,” Mehdi Masaeli, secretary of the Electricity Industry Syndicate, recently told Zaman-e Eghtesad, warning that officials should not downplay the severity of the situation.

Resolving the crisis would take at least three years, he said, citing the need for significant financial investment, equipment procurement, and coordinated management.

Authorities have also blamed cryptocurrency mining for electricity outages for years.

Earlier this week, Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said illegal use of miners has expanded and is responsible for around 1,000 megawatts of energy consumption.

He also urged citizens to report illegal mining to the authorities. Last year, authorities offered a bounty to combat illegal cryptocurrency mining activities. According to Aliabadi, authorities have seized over 220,000 illegal mining devices over the past year alone.

“These negotiations will be fully aligned with the Supreme Leader’s guidance, which will light our path,” Pezeshkian said during a meeting with a group of lawmakers. “We have not and will not tie the people’s livelihood to the outcome of the talks.”

Pezeshkian said that while Iran seeks dialogue without escalating tensions, it would not compromise on what he called national values. “We will not retreat from our principles under any circumstances,” he added. “At the same time, we are not seeking tension.”

Earlier in the day, Iran’s deputy foreign minister said the country is open to accepting temporary restrictions on uranium enrichment, though no detailed agreement has been reached.

Majid Takht-Ravanchi, speaking after the fourth round of indirect talks with the United States in Oman, said negotiations have yet to address the specifics of enrichment levels.

The talks, described by both sides as difficult but constructive, mark the highest-level contact between Tehran and Washington since the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018 under former Trump administration.

Iran has since accelerated its enrichment to 60% purity—well above the deal’s 3.67% cap but below weapons-grade, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.

While US officials have called for a full dismantlement of Iran’s enrichment capabilities, Tehran insists the right to enrich is non-negotiable.

Iran’s atomic energy chief, Mohammad Eslami,said on Tuesday that the nuclear program remains a pillar of national strength and is not subject to bargaining.

Western powers accuse Iran of seeking nuclear weapons—an allegation Tehran denies. Despite diplomatic engagement, the US continues to expand sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear and energy sectors.