Iran’s breakout time now too short for JCPOA return, US think tank says
Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb in as little as 4.5 months, even if limits from the 2015 nuclear deal were reimposed, a US non-proliferation expert said in a new report.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, said that under the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s breakout time was about 12 months. But since then, Iran has installed more powerful centrifuges and gained experience that would let it move much faster.
“The situation has changed so fundamentally that new limits are needed,” Albright wrote. “The most important of which is that Iran destroy centrifuges and related equipment, rather than store them.”
The report said Iran now has over 13,000 advanced centrifuges and can reinstall them quickly. It could enrich enough uranium for one bomb in 4.5 months and nearly eight bombs within 15 months, even under JCPOA-style limits.
Albright also warned that proposals to only reduce Iran’s 20% and 60% enriched uranium stocks are “essentially worthless,” because Iran could still reach a breakout in as little as 25 days.
He said a new deal must include stricter limits, real verification, and require Iran to dismantle—not just store—its excess centrifuges.
