Q&A: the new US sanctions on Iranian oil

Saudi Arabian outlet Al Hadath quoted Lebanese media as saying that the inspections are underway without saying by who.

Lebanese newspaper Lebanon Debate reported on Monday that "similar to what happened previously in the cases of inspection of planes coming from Iran, the same thing happens with flights coming from Iraq, as the flights are subject to a thorough security inspection in order to verify the possibility of them transporting money or assets for the benefit of Hezbollah."

Since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon, the country's army has begun to take a greater role in security affairs.

Last month Israel accused Iran of funneling tens of millions of dollars to Hezbollah through clandestine cash deliveries, lodging formal complaints with the US-led committee overseeing the still fragile ceasefire with Iran's largest regional ally in Lebanon, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Last week US President Donald Trump signed a directive restoring the so-called maximum pressure policy on Iran of his first term, aimed at driving the Islamic Republic's oil exports to zero.

The directive requires the US secretary of state to ensure that Iraq’s financial system is not utilized by Iran for sanctions evasion or circumvention, and that Persian Gulf countries are not used as sanctions evasion transhipment points.

The calls for his Pezeshkian's resignation intensified after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s Friday speech, in which he firmly rejected the possibility of negotiations with the United States. This appeared to contradict Khamenei’s earlier comments on January 28, where he mentioned “making a deal,” which some interpreted as a subtle indication of openness to talks.

Critics who now regret voting for Pezeshkian or call for his resignation, arguing he lacks the power to change Iran's current worsening economic trajectory, have reminded him that in a campaign video, he pledged to step down if he failed to fulfill his promises.

These promises included the lifting of US sanctions through negotiations, lifting of the internet filtering, and stopping violence against women for hijab.

“I would resign this same day if I were Pezeshkian … I would say [to those who make the decisions]: take responsibility for the country yourself, and say goodbye [to them],” journalist Mostafa Danandeh tweeted.

During his campaign, Pezeshkian criticized the policy of limiting Iran's foreign relations to Eastern bloc countries—China and Russia—and stressed the need for broader engagement, including with the United States. He argued that addressing global challenges, particularly the crippling US sanctions on Iran’s international trade, required a more inclusive diplomatic approach.

In a mid-January interview with NBC, before President Donald Trump officially assumed office, the Iranian president said Tehran was ready for talks with the United States and European Union, emphasizing that Iran was committed to peace and de-escalation in the region and globally but insisted that Iran would not submit to force in any way.

On X, users rallied around the hashtag #Resignation_Pezeshkian, posting criticism of the worsening economic crisis. Many highlighted the impact of strict US sanctions reinstated last week, citing the national currency's further depreciation and rising inflation.

"Were the two years of single-digit inflation after the 2015 JCPOA [nuclear deal] not an achievement? Inflation is the country's primary issue. If tackling inflation, sanctions, filtering, and negotiations—the four main promises Pezeshkian made—has reached such a deadlock, his resignation would be an honorable course of action," argued Javad Aghaei, a psychologist with nearly 1,300 followers on X.

Some others, however, urged Pezeshkian to persevere because his resignation could only make things worse for the Iranian people.

Ghorbanali Salavatian, an Iran-Iraq War veteran and cultural figure with over 50,000 followers on X, wrote in a post on Sunday that he would have urged Pezeshkian to resign and let his ultra-hardliner rival, Saeed Jalili, take the helm if he did not love Iran. "But since we know the disaster that would follow, and because we love Iran and its people, I urge you, Mr. Pezeshkian, to stay and fight for Iran and its people."

On Saturday, the first day of the work week, the Iranian currency, rial, plunged to almost 900,000 per US dollar in reaction to Khamenei’s rejection of talks. Early reports on Sunday indicated a continued decline, with the dollar trading at 910,000. Over the past year, the currency’s collapse has increased consumer goods prices by approximately 50%.

Hardliners and ultra-hardliners insist that Khamenei’s Friday speech, delivered after Trump reinstated the so-called maximum pressure policy on Iran, although he also said that he preferred a deal with Iran, was the Supreme Leader’s “final word”.

Some supporters of direct US-Iran negotiations, however, have interpreted Khamenei’s statements not as rejection of talks but as a “tactic” and emphasizing the need for clear outcomes, such as the lifting of sanctions, rather than engaging in futile negotiations.

Javan newspaper, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), cited an unnamed advisor to former president Hassan Rouhani as saying on Sunday that "If the president does not bring the negotiations to fruition, he should give up and leave the presidential office before the winter snow falls in Tehran."

The article by Javan said that such a sentiment about the administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian resonates with both supporters and critics of the government.

"This idea is gaining traction not only among government loyalists but also among its opponents," Javan said, noting that some newly emerged “suspicious” political factions, particularly those that surfaced after the recent elections, appear to be maneuvering to render Pezeshkian ineffective—blocking negotiations and steering him toward a scenario where he either resigns voluntarily or faces a turbulent path toward impeachment in parliament.

"This push for the president's removal is like the two blades of a scissor, cutting deeper into the political landscape and driving the country toward a major crisis before the year’s end."

Javan claimed that, according to enemy intelligence services, growing public discontent fueled by government inefficiency, rising poverty, and inequality could trigger protests in Iran, potentially leading to unrest similar to the events of November 2019.

In 2019, a wave of nationwide protests in Iran, known as Bloody November, erupted following a fuel price hike. What began as economic grievances quickly escalated into demands for the overthrow of the government and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to various sources, security forces killed at least 1,500 protesters between November 15 and 17.

The Pezeshkian administration is caught between opposing pressures. While urged to ease US sanctions, it faces a firm ban on talks with Washington imposed by the Supreme Leader on Friday.

Since Khamenei’s rejection, Iran’s currency, the rial, has been in freefall, hitting a record low of 915,000 per US dollar on Sunday.

“Negotiating with such a government should not be done; it is neither wise, intelligent nor honorable,” said the 85-year-old cleric during a meeting with air force personnel in Tehran.“No problem will be solved through negotiations with the United States,” he added.

Also on Sunday, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council and a close aide to Khamenei, said, “Those who support negotiations with Trump should clarify what they are willing to offer in a deal to persuade him to lift the sanctions.”

He added, “Mr. Khamenei presents arguments for his stance; those in favor of negotiating with Trump should also provide their reasoning.”

Sociologist Taghi Azad Armaki, in an interview with Etemad newspaper, also warned of potential protests, citing "high prices, the rising dollar rate, high rents, health problems, emigration, and absolute poverty" as key pressures on the population.

"These issues remain unresolved," he warned, "and if not addressed, will soon manifest as widespread protests." He criticized “extremist groups” opposed to negotiations for undermining the administration, stating that they must be controlled and act in the interests of the ruling establishment.

Referring to hardliners, Armaki added, "If extremism is not curbed in the current situation, it will continue to take the form of a widespread wave and will harm the entire system. Social crises should not be allowed to turn into security crises."

Prominent commentator Ahmad Zeidabadi also criticized Friday prayer leaders, accusing them of delivering contradictory and confusing messages.

During Friday prayers, chants opposing negotiations with the US and their supporters—including Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif—echoed as Khamenei's representatives, the Friday prayer imams, denounced the idea.

Zeidabadi also condemned the attempts of hardliners who say there is no need for talks with the US because it would not solve Iran's financial crisis. "They routinely blame America for all of the country's cultural, social, and political problems," Zeidabadi wrote, "even though the US neither claims nor has the ability to create them. Yet, when it comes to economic issues, they attribute nearly all problems to internal mismanagement while dismissing the impact of America's extensive sanctions. The contradictions have become deafening."

Extraordinary precautions, including the use of a decoy plane, were implemented by Trump’s team to counter the threat, according to a forthcoming book, Revenge: The Inside Story of Trump’s Return to Power written by Alex Isenstadt.

“Law enforcement officials warned Trump last year that Tehran had placed operatives in the US with access to surface-to-air missiles,” the author said in an interview with Axios.

“The concern intensified after a foiled assassination attempt of Trump at his golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sept. 15.”

Isenstadt said he was given extensive access to Trump's inner circle during his campaign.

Though Iran was not conclusively linked to the events, they heightened fears of an attack on Trump Force One, his personal jet, according to the book.

On one occasion, Trump traveled aboard a plane owned by real estate executive Steve Witkoff while his staff flew on Trump Force One. Many aides only learned of the switch just before takeoff, leading to what campaign insiders dubbed the Ghost Flight.

According to the book, set for release on March 18, the Secret Service also organized decoy motorcades and took steps like disabling a drone suspected of following Trump’s motorcade in Pennsylvania.

Campaign insiders noted that Trump grew more cautious about public events and spoke less frequently about ordering the 2020 airstrike that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq.

Soleimani led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force and Iran's influence and military allies in the Middle East.

Since then, US authorities have tracked several threats against Trump and former officials linked to Soleimani's assassination.

"If they did that, they would be obliterated," Trump said recently. "That would be the end. I've left instructions - if they do it, they get obliterated. There won't be anything left."

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei reacted to Trump's remarks saying, “Tehran reserves its right to pursue a legal process for achieving justice regarding the killing of national champions and senior officials to achieve results in domestic and international courts.”

The announcement follows the commencement of radioactive materials extraction at a complex in Yazd province.

“Today, the extraction and operation of radioactive materials and accompanying elements in the Anomaly 10 area began,” said Javad Ahmadi, the deputy head of the Atomic Energy Organization.

“Last September, we carried out the exploration of this area, and now we have reached the stage of extracting radioactive materials and accompanying elements from this mine.”

Yellowcake, a processed uranium ore, is a key material for nuclear power plants, which Iran claims is its focus, though concerns remain over its potential use in atomic weapons. The West has expressed fears that Iran’s ultimate aim may involve weapons-grade enrichment.

Ahmadi also mentioned the project’s scope, saying that it involves approximately 40 million tons of radioactive materials, iron ore, and other elements.

“We have also planned to establish a yellowcake production plant with an annual capacity of 20 tons.”

Last year, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog said that Iran is "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon.

In spite of a November resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors censuring Iran for its lack of cooperation, Iran has continued to forge ahead with its enrichment towards weapons level uranium.

The deputy head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Behrouz Kamalvandi, said at the time: "We will significantly increase enrichment capacity ... The Westerners are trying to push our nuclear industry backward through pressure tactics."

The latest developments come as President Donald Trump looks to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. During his first term, the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord, a deal that restricted Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent—well below the 90 percent required for weapons—while capping its stockpile at 300 kilograms.

Further expanding its nuclear initiatives, Iran on Saturday launched production of Iridium Hexafluoride (IR46) at the Shahid Raeisi Nuclear Site in Isfahan. State media claims the material has medical and industrial uses and opens new export opportunities for Iran.

While President Donald Trump’s new administration has indicated openness to renegotiations, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has dismissed the prospect, calling dialogue with the US dishonorable.

Trump has clearly announced that the Islamic Republic must not have nuclear weapons while countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany and France (the E3) continue to push for measures to prevent Iran's nuclear progress.

Iran insists its nuclear program is strictly for peaceful purposes, though its growing capabilities are likely to draw increased international scrutiny.