Two senior IRGC commanders said this week that the Islamic Republic is currently unable to retaliate against Israel's October air strikes due to financial constraints and the loss of key regional ally Syria.
Iranian political and military officials have repeatedly threatened to launch a large-scale retaliation against Israel, referring to the operation as “True Promise 3.” The codename refers to two earlier missile and drone strikes carried out against Israel in 2024.
An IRGC general who until recently was stationed in Syria told Iranian media that such an operation should have been launched earlier, and now Iran is not in a position to ignite a large-scale conflict with Israel.
"I do not know why the operation was not launched or who decided against responding to Israel," General Behrouz Esbati who heads the Iranian armed forces Cyberspace Headquarters, told the conservative Tabnak news website.
"However, as someone who was on the ground in Syria, I can say that we would be in a much better position today if Iran had retaliated against Israel's attack."
Iranian troops quit Syria last month in the face of a surprise rebel offensive which toppled the ruling Assad dynasty, Iran's faithful ally for decades.
The loss was among the heaviest to Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance in 15 months of war with Israel. Tehran describes the armed front as legitimate resistance against Israel and has been keen to avoid all-out conflict with its better armed fow.
"I believe the current situation makes it impossible to carry out Operation True Promise-3," Estate added. "Under the present circumstances, it is not in the interest of the Resistance to drag the region into a war. If we initiate a new operation, the enemy will respond with renewed attacks."
Addressing the reasons behind Assad's fall, Esbati remarked, "Assad lacked the motivation to fight. Despite Khamenei’s assurance that Iran would support him if he resisted, Assad was unwilling to engage in battle."
He also criticized Assad's military leadership, saying, "His army commanders were corrupt and accepted bribes from everyone." Esbati further accused Russia of betrayal, saying, "Russia betrayed both Assad and Iran." He added that "after Iran's first retaliation against Israeli attacks, Russia was aligned with Israel."
The Didban Iran news website in Tehran quoted also General Esmail Kowsari, an IRGC officer and member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, as saying, "The Islamic Republic's hands are tied; otherwise, we would have responded to Israel and carried out Operation True Promise-3."
Highlighting the United States' $921 billion military budget, Kowsari remarked, "If we were in a better financial position, we would have launched Operation True Promise-3 and even Operation 4."
Meanwhile, Etemad newspaper cited Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who stated, "Iran must learn a lesson from Assad's fall in Syria." He added, "The Syrian army was defeated before it even considered fighting or resisting." The foreign minister warned, "Syria's defeat should serve as a lesson for us, and we must not allow the enemies to spread despair within Iran."
