Iran faces nuclear crossroads as second Trump era looms

The decision to eliminate the mastermind behind Tehran’s expanding military and political influence from Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen demonstrated how removing a single figure can disrupt an entire system—and alter a region's dynamics.

Soleimani was a key architect of Iran’s Middle East strategy. Though not the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, he was its most influential leader. His impact on the regime’s regional policies far outweighed that of any elected official, including Iran’s president.

The aftermath of his assassination revealed the strategic significance of Trump’s bold decision on January 3, 2020. The resulting shifts in regional power dynamics and successive defeats for Iran and its Quds Force highlighted how this single act disrupted Tehran’s ambitions.

General Kenneth McKenzie, then-head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), detailed the operation in his book Degrade and Destroy. McKenzie explained that Soleimani had been within US targeting range before, but former President Barack Obama refrained from authorizing his assassination due to fears of escalation. This restraint allowed Soleimani to consolidate his influence across the Middle East. Trump’s decisive move, however, ended that era.

McKenzie also noted that forces under Soleimani’s command carried out 19 attacks on US bases in Iraq in 2019 alone. A December 2019 strike that killed an American contractor became the immediate trigger for the decision to eliminate Soleimani.

The assassination dealt a major blow to Iran’s influence in the region, particularly to the Quds Force. It sent a clear message to Tehran: escalation would be met with decisive retaliation. Soleimani’s death exemplified this strategy and revealed vulnerabilities in Iran’s regional power structure.

Following Soleimani’s killing, Iran’s proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and other militias, experienced significant operational setbacks. The regime struggled to fill the void left by Soleimani, a reality so stark that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly sought to downplay the impact. However, Iran’s diminished influence in the Middle East became undeniable.

More recently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline policies have further altered the region’s dynamics. Tehran’s miscalculations, including encouraging Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, prompted an intensified Israeli campaign against Iran’s proxies.

These actions led to the defeat of Hamas, the weakening of Hezbollah, and even the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. As a result, Iran’s regional proxy network has been severely eroded, leaving its influence significantly diminished.

The decisions by Trump to eliminate Soleimani and by Netanyahu to target key Iranian and proxy leaders demonstrate how firm action against the Islamic Republic can reshape regional dynamics. Today, the effects of these decisions are evident in the weakened state of Iran and its proxies across the Middle East.

Mehdi Chamran, chairman of the Tehran City Council, confirmed on Sunday that the council is now looking for an alternative location to honor the assassinated Hamas leader, killed by Israel amid the war in Gaza in October, with a street name.

The proposal to rename a section of Bisotun Street in central Tehran was introduced last week by councilor Narges Madanipour.

Her proposal was approved by other councilors, most of whom are ultra-hardliners supporting the Iran-backed Palestinian group, Hamas, which countries such as the UK and US designate a terrorist group.

The section in question is between a street named after the lead of Iran's other Palestinian military ally, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Fathi Shaqaqi, and a nearby square called Jihad.

The City Council’s decision sparked an outcry from thousands of citizens, activists, and politicians who took to social media to voice their opposition. A petition was quickly launched, protesting what many perceived as an attempt to erase an important part of Iran’s heritage and identity.

Cultural Significance of Bisotun

Bisotun is a UNESCO World Heritage site located in western Iran and features an enormous bas-relief and nearly 1,200 lines of multilingual inscriptions by Darius the Great, the Persian king who ruled from 522 to 486 BCE.

The inscriptions, carved into Mount Bisotun, are some of the most significant archaeological relics from ancient Persia. Some nearby archaeological sites date back to prehistoric times.

The mountain also holds a special place in Persian literature, notably in the tragic love story of Shirin and Farhad, written by 12th-century poet Nizami Ganjavi.

One of the critics argued in a post on X that renaming the street after Sinwar—who he said contributed to instability in the Middle East—was an unacceptable affront to Iran’s ancient heritage. The post added that "Bisotun is a cultural symbol, and changing its name is deeply disrespectful," he wrote in his post.

Even politicians who have no objection to honoring Sinwar with a street name have voiced concerns over the renaming of Bisotun Street.

Councilor Narjes Soleimani, the daughter of the late Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, warned that renaming such a culturally important street could have serious repercussions, highlighting the significance of Bisotun to Iranians.

The legacy of street name changes in post-revolution Iran

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ousted the Shah, Iranian authorities have frequently renamed streets, squares, parks, and other public spaces to reflect the Islamic Republic's ideological values. Many of these name changes have been politically motivated, and some have created diplomatic challenges with other countries.

Shortly after the revolution, Pahlavi Avenue, once the longest streets in the Middle East named to honor the Pahlavi Dynasty, was renamed Mosaddegh Avenue in honor of Mohammad Mosaddegh, the nationalist prime minister overthrown in 1953.

A year later, Islamists who had gained the upper hand in the country renamed the avenue again. It has since been called Vali Asr, a title of the twelfth Shia Imam, Mahdi. Some people still call it Pahlavi.

“Bisotun is one of the prides of Iran's cultural heritage, and eradicating its name from Tehran will not send a good message to Iranians. Why don't you rename Khaled Islambouli Street, [named after] a Takfiri terrorist and associate of Ayman al-Zawahiri, after Sinwar?”, Abdolreza Davari, a former advisor to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who now supports President Masoud Pezeshkian, asked in an X post.

The street referred to by Davari, was named Khalid Islambouli after a lieutenant in the Egyptian army who assassinated the Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in 1981 because Sadat had opened his arms to his long-time friend, the Shah, granted him political asylum, and held a state funeral for him when he died of cancer in 1980.

Cairo still considers the street’s name an affront to the Egyptian nation. Iranian diplomat Amir Mousavi in July 2023 told Faraz Daily that the street name was one of the last hurdles to be overcome to make the normalization of Tehran-Cairo relations, which were severed over four decades ago, possible.

President Joe Biden announced that January 9 will be a national day of mourning throughout the US. "I call on the American people to assemble on that day in their respective places of worship, there to pay homage to the memory of President James Earl Carter," Biden said.

Carter, a Democrat, assumed office in January 1977 but his one-term presidency was marked by the highs of the 1978 Camp David accords between Israel and Egypt and conversely, the 444 day hostage crisis which saw more than 50 Americans held captive in the US embassy in Tehran.

It is not only in Iran that the former statesman has become a divisive figure. Even in the US, the Washington Historical Association says that “The Iran Hostage Crisis was one of the most important issues of Jimmy Carter’s presidency and likely one of the reasons for his election loss in 1980,” losing in a landslide to Ronald Reagan in 1980.

The US State Department is today more open about the failings of Carter's administration. While at the beginning of Carter’s presidency, the United States and Iran were allies, today, they say, “The Iran hostage crisis undermined Carter’s conduct of foreign policy”.

Like last year’s hostage crisis under Joe Biden in which five dual-nationals were released by Tehran for $6 billion of Iranian frozen funds, the crisis dominated the headlines and made the administration look weak, in echoes of history repeating itself.

When Secretary of State Cyrus Vance opposed a mission to rescue the hostages in Iran in favor of diplomatic channels, the administration was left wide open for the incoming Reagan presidency.

In a 2014 interview with CNBC, Carter tried to justify the disaster that led to his election defeat, failing to admit that it was on the very day his rival was sworn in that the release of hostages took place. American television networks broadcasting Reagan's inauguration, showed hostages on a split screen boarding a flight to the United States.

Carter said: “I could have been re-elected if I had taken military action against Iran. It would have shown that I was strong and resolute and manly. ... I could have wiped Iran off the map with the weapons that we had. But in the process a lot of innocent people would have been killed, probably including the hostages. And so I stood up against all that advice, and then eventually all my prayers were answered and all the hostages came home safe and free.”

Relations before the 1979 Islamic revolution had been strong between Iran and the US. Carter even called Iran during the monarchy “an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world” during a visit to Tehran and maintained a strategic relationship with the Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi.

However, this relationship was contentious for both nations. In November 1977, President Carter and First Lady Rosalynn Carter hosted the Shah and his wife, Empress Farah Pahlavi, at the White House for a State Visit.

Protests broke out between the pro and anti-Shah factions which ended up with over 100 protesters injured as well as police officers. It further pushed Iranians into the hands of the incoming Islamic Republic and its narrative of anti-US policy, which continues to today.

After his January 1979 exile of the Shah, suffering from terminal cancer was allowed to receive medical care in New York, but he later decided to spend his remaining days in Egypt. He was buried with full honors in a Cairo mosque.

Just 16 days after the Shah left, the incoming Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, returned to Iran to a thunderous welcome, paving the way for the Islamic Republic’s birth, with the US embassy first attacked in those initial days after.

In Iran, sentiment against the US grew when Carter allowed the exiled Shah into the US for what Carter believed to be life-saving medical treatment in October 1979, one of the final triggers leading to the hostage crisis.

Carter failed to grasp the magnitude of sentiment against the Shah by Iranians in Iran and abroad in the heydays of the revolution, many thinking it was part of a plan to return him to power. Again, it led to demonstrations around the US embassy.

The legacy of Carter’s Middle East policy will now always be torn between the historic peace deal he secured between Israel and Egypt, while for others, it will be the failings of his policy on Iran.

In 1984, during a national debate with Walter Mondale, Reagan blamed Carter for the fall of the Shah, who he said had been a major ally in the Middle East.

He said: “The shah, whatever he might have done, was building low-cost housing and taking land away from the mullahs and distributing it to the peasants so they could be landowners. ... But we turned it over to a maniacal fanatic who has slaughtered thousands and thousands.”

Many Iranians have already spoken out against Carter. Political researcher Arvin Khoshnood wrote on X: “He bears responsibility for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iranians. By actively supporting Khomeini and enabling the Islamic Revolution, Carter is complicit in every life lost to the regime’s brutality and inhumane policies over the past 45 years.”

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog said of Carter: “In recent years I had the pleasure of calling him and thanking him for his historic efforts to bring together two great leaders, [Menachem] Begin and [Anwar] Sadat, and forging a peace between Israel and Egypt that remains an anchor of stability throughout the Middle East and North Africa many decades later. His legacy will be defined by his deep commitment to forging peace between nations.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said in a post on X: ”His significant role in achieving the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel will remain etched in the annals of history.”

“Naturally, if there is a need for such efforts, they will certainly be undertaken, but no messages were exchanged during this visit,” Araghchi said during a joint press conference with his Omani counterpart, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, in Tehran on Monday.

“Oman's role in nuclear negotiations is clear, and we have always expressed our gratitude to our Omani friends in this regard, ”he added.

He also reiterated that Tehran continues to exchange necessary messages with Washington through the Swiss Embassy. “At the appropriate time…and if necessary, it will be done through this channel. If needed, our Omani brothers could also assist, but no such actions took place during this trip,” he said.

Al Busaidi, who traveled to Tehran for high-level talks, did not comment on the matter but said that he carries a message from the Sultan of Oman for the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Araghchi also addressed regional issues, emphasizing the need for stability in Syria. "We all seek calm in Syria, the formation of an inclusive government, and an end to the occupation by Israel," he said, referring to what is internationally recognized as the Israeli occupied Golan Heights.

The press conference is part of a string of trips, following meetings in the UAE the day before, and china on Saturday. In Beijing, he held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, where, according to a statement by the ministry, they agreed to advance the implementation of the China-Iran Comprehensive Cooperation Plan.

Videos and photos of Movahed’s unprecedented act of defiance went viral on social media very quickly, becoming known only as “The Enghelab Avenue Girl” after, having climbed a utility box on Enghelab (Revolution) Ave in Tehran on December 27, 2017, removed her white headscarf, tied it on a stick, and waved it in protest.

The young mother of 32 was arrested within minutes.

Movahed was freed from prison a month later after her first arrest, but her bravery inspired several other young women who came to be known as the 'Enghelab Avenue Girls', protesting on the same spot.

Authorities were eventually forced to build a gable on top of the utility box to stop more girls from climbing it to protest.

Nearly a year later, the young mother climbed a turquoise dome in the center of the very busy Enghelab Square in downtown Tehran with a bunch of red, white, and turquoise balloons and a red and black headscarf in her hand to protest again. She was arrested and was this time sentenced to one year in prison for “inciting people to corruption and immorality” by unveiling.

Movahed served eight months at the notorious Qarchak Prison in the south of Tehran. She has not been seen in public since being freed in 2019 but her name and memory are honored by many every year on social media.

And today, her legacy lives large, thousands of women now appearing unveiled in public arenas, forcing authorities to retreat from implementing a harsh new hijab law drawn up by ultra-hardliners.

The movement was given a rebirth in the wake of the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. It sparked the Woman, Life, Freedom protests across the country in September 2022, protests which lasted for months and saw a tide turn against the compulsory Islamic dress.

During and after the Woman, Life, Freedom protests, scores of celebrities including artists and athletes posted unveiled photos on social media or attended public events with no headscarves. Most of the artists who expressed solidarity with the anti-compulsory hijab movement have been banned from acting, suffering other penalties such as bank account freezes and travel bans.

The public pressure has grown so much in the past year that even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appears to have agreed to the shelving of a new and more radical law to enforce hijab, for the fear of inciting unrest if brought into effect.

In a speech in April 2023, Khamenei said that flouting hijab was “religiously and politically haram (forbidden)”, accused foreign intelligence services of encouraging Iranian women to disobey the mandatory head-dress, and urged the authorities to do whatever it took to enforce it.

In his latest speech to a group of women on 17 December, very uncharacteristically, he did not refer whatsoever to the hijab issue and the controversies surrounding it.

Public acts in defiance of the hijab have grown to new heights in recent months despite authorities' threats of severe legal crackdowns, occasional violence against women on the streets, and measures such as impounding vehicles if unveiled women are spotted in them.

There have been a string of now iconic protesters since. In early November, another young woman, Ahu Daryaei, shed her clothes at a university campus in Tehran, reportedly after being harassed by hijab enforcers. She was arrested and sent to a mental health facility but was freed later without charges being brought against her after the story went worldwide.

A few weeks later, Parastoo Ahmadi, a songstress, performed in a historic caravansary in a black evening dress that showed her bare shoulders and streamed her concert live on YouTube. Ahmadi and her band were arrested too but were later released on heavy bail.

Before Movahed’s public act, women’s defiance of hijab had only been done in safe spaces. A campaign was launched by women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad in 2014 on Facebook, My Stealthy Freedom.

Women contributed photos of themselves taken in the car on quiet roads with their hair flowing on their shoulders or in other places where they could “stealthily” remove their headscarves.

But nothing could have predicted the country's biggest rebellion against the mandatory hair covering which has swept the nation, posing the biggest challenge to the government since the Islamic Republic was founded as women from all over Iran continue to rise up.