A prominent centrist political analyst in Tehran has warned that the benefits Iran once expected from the 2015 nuclear deal are rapidly fading as the country’s economy continues its downward spiral since last summer.
In an interview with Khabar Online, Mohammad Atrianfar cautioned, "If Iran cannot overcome sanctions, Tehran should prepare for major domestic political challenges." He attributed the current economic decline to the suspension of negotiations with the West since 2021, stating, "The damage to Iran's economy stems from the stalemate in talks."
Khabar Online also noted that lifting sanctions remains a priority for the Pezeshkian administration, as officials recognize that improving Iranians’ living standards hinges on resuming effective negotiations with the West. In her analysis, commentator Fereshteh Saemi observed, "Aware of this reality, the government has shifted its approach since 2021."
This renewed focus on negotiations reflects growing concerns about the economic and political repercussions of prolonged sanctions on Iran, and the coming Trump administration.
This follows comments by Khabar Online columnist Rassoul Salimi, who blamed Iran's hardliners for halting the negotiations led by then-Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Vienna in April-June 2021. Salimi argued that talks were stopped at a critical moment when the West was reportedly prepared to offer significant concessions to Iran.
According to Salimi, hardliners believed they could extract even greater concessions, especially with Ebrahim Raisi widely expected to win the June 2021 presidential election. He claimed their objective was to undermine outgoing President Hassan Rouhani’s efforts to secure a deal with the United States and instead position Raisi’s incoming administration for a political victory.
Under the Raisi administration, negotiations were pursued by chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri between November 2021 and March 2022, but came to a halt with Iran's overt support for Russia in the Ukraine war. During this time, Tehran’s hardliners actively worked to derail the talks, according to Rassoul Salimi.
While Iranian officials and media anticipate a potential new round of negotiations after Donald Trump takes office in late January, other officials, including Kamal Kharrazi, secretary of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations—a body affiliated with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office—have indicated that Iran will enter talks on its own terms. However, Kharrazi has not specified what those conditions entail.
Speaking to Al-Mayadeen TV in Lebanon, Kharrazi stated that "Iran will decide its next steps based on the new US policy." He added, "Iran is equally prepared for negotiations or for countering Western pressures. Our response will be proportional to the West's behavior."
This has long been Tehran's standard approach, but it might not be effective at this juncture when the government is under heavy economic pressure and has sustained serious setbacks in Syria and Lebanon.
Former Vice President Es'haq Jahangiri warned in a recent statement that "hard days lie ahead for Iran" as the country's economy continues to suffer under crippling US sanctions.
In an interview with Khabar Online, political analyst Mohammad Atrianfar echoed similar concerns, highlighting the resistance within the top leadership to re-engage in negotiations. "There is an undesirable resistance in Iran to any negotiations, with hardliners questioning the ability of Iranian negotiators to protect Tehran’s interests," Atrianfar said. "They argue: 'If we are going to lose in negotiations, why should we participate at all?'"
Atrianfar further explained the challenges posed by such attitudes, stating, "Radical stances restrict the actions of reasonable politicians. However, radicalism is destined to fail if we empower moderates."
Meanwhile, the pro-reform website Fararu recently issued a stark warning, noting that "the trigger mechanism of the 2015 nuclear deal will be activated, and all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran will be reinstated if Tehran fails to reach an agreement with the United States before August 2025."
