Iran International political analyst
The 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah not only failed to achieve Hezbollah's stated objectives but also dealt a significant blow to the group and its primary backer, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
While Israel suffered its share of losses—including dozens of soldiers killed, tens of thousands displaced in the north, and attacks reaching deep into its territory—the overall damage inflicted on Hezbollah and its supporters in Tehran was far more severe, impacting them militarily and politically.
Here are eight key Hezbollah (and Iran) setbacks:
1. Failure to secure a Gaza ceasefire
Hezbollah launched this war with the aim of ending Israeli attacks on Hamas and achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. No such ceasefire materialised after 14 months of conflict.
2. Destruction of military infrastructure
Israeli airstrikes inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah's military infrastructure, destroying bases, ammunition depots, equipment, fortifications, and tunnels. These losses have significantly weakened the group's operational capacity.
3. Loss of senior commanders
Many of Hezbollah's top military leaders, including military wing commander Fuad Shukr, his deputy Ibrahim Aqil and southern front commander Ali Karaki were killed during the war. This marks the heaviest loss of senior leadership in Hezbollah's history.
4. Assassination of political leaders
The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general for over 30 years, along with his deputy Hashem Safieddine and political council member Nabil Qaouk, have dealt a blow that the remaining structure of the group may find hard to mend.
5. Withdrawal from Israeli border
Under the ceasefire terms, Hezbollah is required to retreat to positions beyond the Litani River, approximately 25 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. This withdrawal diminishes Hezbollah’s threat to northern Israel, with Israel warning of severe military retaliation should Hezbollah attempt to return.
6. Disruption of arms supply
Israeli strikes on key crossings between Syria and Lebanon have disrupted Hezbollah’s supply of arms. Israeli officials have vowed to enforce the ceasefire by preventing Hezbollah’s rearmament. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, mindful of the fate of Nasrallah and other leaders, appears to take these warnings seriously, further limiting Hezbollah's logistical support.
7. Potential erosion of power in Lebanon
It's too early to gauge but Hezbollah’s political stature could prove to have been impacted by the losses mentioned above. The group has called his 14-months campaign a victory. It's unclear if the public in Lebanon agree with that assessment.
8. Iran's weakened regional Influence
The war’s fallout extends beyond Hezbollah, weakening the broader Axis of Resistance led by Iran. Hezbollah, once Iran's strongest proxy, is not what it was 14 months ago. Hamas has also suffered militarily, with key leaders and commanders killed.
Symbolic perhaps, but the destruction of the Iran Garden in southern Lebanon with its likeness of Qassem Soleimani overlooking Israel highlighted the declining influence and prestige of Iran in the region.
