Israelis abroad: How Iranian attack plots could open a new front

That arena is not as well defined as the Mideast war zones in which Israel has dealt punishing blows to Iran-backed adversaries. It involves Israelis abroad coming within Iranian crosshairs as retribution for Israel’s airstrikes on Iran late last month.

No evidence yet links Iran to Kogan’s death and Tehran has denied any involvement.

The possible expansion of plots targeting Israelis beyond Israel's borders may be born out of Iranian weakness, according to Beni Sabti, an Israeli of Iranian origin who is a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

“Iran cannot deal with Israel in a direct fight and war. Hezbollah and Hamas are not as strong as Iran wants them to be, so (Iran) opened an eighth round again, but from a place of weakness, not a place of strength,” Sabti told Iran International from Tel Aviv.

Israeli officials have said they are on the receiving end of attacks on seven fronts since the October 7 attacks launched by Hamas: Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.

Far-flung targets

The most recent alleged Iranian attacks on Israelis were uncovered in Thailand and Sri Lanka.

In October, Iran International learned from a police source in Colombo that local authorities had foiled an Iran-linked plan to kill Israelis vacationing in Sri Lanka. Recently unsealed US Justice Department criminal complaints corroborated the plot.

A month later, Thai police warned of an attack aimed at Israeli citizens planned for a November 15 Full Moon party on a popular vacation Island.

There have been other alleged plots thwarted by domestic and Israeli intelligence agencies in Turkey, Azerbaijan, South Africa, Kenya and Western Europe.

The targeting of Jews outside of Israel is not new, with the deadliest coming in the form of the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

85 people were killed and hundreds injured in an attack Argentinian prosecutors said was launched by Lebanon's Hezbollah at the instigation of Iran’s top leadership.

Arash Azizi, an Iranian journalist and author of What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom, said Rabbi Kogan's murder fits with Iran’s modus operandi.

“The Iranian regime in the last decade or so has tried to kill Israeli citizens wherever it could find them. And it's usually failed in this attempt,” he said.

Abraham Accords

The United Arab Emirates may be a symbolic venue to strike because it represents of hub of people from the Middle East and has a growing Jewish community after formal relations were established with Israel following the Abraham Accords.

Kogan was an emissary to Abu Dhabi’s Chabad chapter and ran a kosher grocery store in Dubai.

With the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iranian attacks beyond the Jewish state may be on the rise.

Foreign lands may provide plausible deniability in order for Iran to avoid direct Israeli reprisals, said Jason Brodsky, policy director of Washington DC-based United Against Nuclear Iran.

“There has been an uptick ... Iran feels that it can't afford to get involved in a more direct armed conflict with Israel at a time when Israel sounds to be more risk ready than usual against the Iranian regime when the Biden administration is on its way out and has virtually no leverage anymore over Israel and the incoming Trump administration is unpredictable,” he said.

The cell responsible for Kogan's killing reportedly operated from Uzbekistan. 3 Uzbek nationals were arrested in the killing of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi in the UAE.

While Brodsky sees the signs of Iran being behind Kogan’s killing, he cautioned that there may be a link to Islamic State, which has been heavily recruiting in Central Asia in recent years.