Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Iran's oil loadings plummeted nearly 70% in the first ten days of October, as its tanker fleet dispersed in anticipation of potential Israeli strikes, which may target the country's oil terminals.
Data obtained by Iran International from tanker tracking firms indicates that Iran loaded only 600,000 barrels of oil per day in the first 10 days of October, much less than the 1.5 million barrels shipments volume average in recent months.
Tanker tracking data shows a relative increase in the number of tankers at Iran's Kharg oil terminal after October 10. Armen Azizian, a senior oil risk analyst at Vortexa, told Iran International that while loadings have resumed, they are progressing much slower than usual. Recent estimates suggest that volumes have slightly increased to 800,000 barrels per day since mid-week.
The Kharg oil terminal, located in the western Persian Gulf, handles 90% of Iran’s oil loadings, particularly for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) with a capacity of 2 million barrels. Observers have identified the terminal as a potential target for Israeli strikes.
According to a report, published by Vortexa, a slowdown at Kharg is already visible, with only two VLCCs loaded between October 1-10, compared to an average of 1.1 VLCCs per day in the first nine months of the year. Most of Iran’s oil, shipped despite US sanctions, are purchased by small Chinese refineries.
Iran had around 40 million barrels of floating oil storage, out of Persian Gulf in early October, enough to continue exports to China for only one month. Azizian said that during October 1-10, the floating storage has been declining as tankers, which held stored oil, are departing Iran.
It is still unclear whether the Kharg oil terminal is among Israel's targets. However, an attack on this terminal could cripple Iran's economy. Reports suggest that after Iran’s large-scale missile attack on Israel on October 1st, Tehran immediately withdrew its tankers from the Kharg Island to prevent them from being targeted by Israeli retaliatory strikes.
Informed sources have told some Western media that Iran has also made numerous confidential contacts with the regional Arab neighbors over the past week, asking them to urge the US to prevent Israel from attacking Iran’s oil facilities.
Soon after Iran's missile attack on Israel, the Iranian president traveled to Qatar, followed by a rare visit to Saudi Arabia by Iran's foreign minister.
Oil exports make up 65% of Iran’s government budget and 8% of its GDP. However, a recent report by Iran's Court of Audit revealed that in the first five months of the current fiscal year (March 21 to August 22), the government fell short of realizing a quarter of its projected oil revenues.
Additionally, tanker tracking data indicates that in August and September, Iran's daily oil exports dropped by about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels compared to previous months, falling to 1.4 million barrels per day. This suggests a deepening of Iran's oil budget deficit in coming months.
The reason behind this drop was the decline in oil demand from China, a country that purchases over 95% of Iran’s exported oil.
Iran has repeatedly threated regional and western states to blockade Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of oil traded worldwide passes through.
Vortexa reports that with China now accounting for over 95% of Iran’s oil exports as its top trade partner, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. “Such a move would trigger severe economic instability and jeopardize Iran’s vital relationship with China,” the firm stated.
From January to September, China imported 4.2 mb/d of crude via the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 43% of its seaborne crude. This included n increased volume of Iranian oil as more Chinese refiners turned to Tehran’s discounted feedstocks to improve refining margins.
