Israel must take the war inside Iran, former IDF official says

Eskandar Momeni's comments, delivered during a television appearance on Monday, have drawn criticism for perceived contradiction with Iran's own policies, particularly as the country continues to issue thousands of visas to Afghans daily.

During the program, Momeni justified the remarks by stating that "Iran cannot handle this volume of migration." His comments, however, have been met with skepticism from observers who argue that Iran's actions contradict its rhetoric. While Iranian officials, including Momeni, repeatedly say that Afghan migrants should return home, their actions, such as the continued issuance of visas, suggest otherwise.

Many believe the government is trying to appease public demands to reduce the presence of millions of Afghan migrants, blamed for increasing social and financial burdens, while quietly maintaining policies that keep the borders open.

The Iranian government has invested three billion euros to construct a border wall, yet reports indicate that Afghan migrants who are deported often return, some even jumping over the wall to re-enter Iran.

In his television address, Momeni clarified that the "priority is for those who enter illegally and unlawfully," and emphasized the need for migrants to "respect the mechanisms of the host country." He went further, blaming Afghan migrants for the rise in unemployment in Iran, stating that "a lot of job opportunities are being taken away."

Critics argue that while the government wants to portray itself as tough on immigration, it continues to benefit from the presence of Afghan migrants in other ways. Some have accused Tehran of using Afghan migrants to bolster its regional influence, with reports suggesting that Iran has previously recruited Afghan fighters for its military operations in Syria.

The surge of Afghan migrants into Iran since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, estimated to have grown from 2.5 million to as high as 10 million, has only deepened public frustration, as Iran grapples with its own economic crisis and strained social services.

Meanwhile, human rights organizations have Iran’s treatment of Afghan migrants. In August, Shargh daily reported the arrest of several Afghan teenagers between the ages of 10 and 17, despite their having proper documentation. One notable incident involved a violent confrontation between law enforcement and a young Afghan immigrant named "Seyed Mahdi" in Damavand County, which sparked outrage.

The arrest was followed by a video that surfaced online, showing a police officer kneeling on Mahdi’s neck, a scene that immediately drew comparisons to the death of George Floyd in the US, to which Iranian officials reacted widely including Supreme Leader Ali Khameni who slammed it.

The treatment of Afghan migrants in Iran has been increasingly scrutinized by international organizations.

Amnesty International has raised concerns about the "routine arbitrary detention" of Afghan nationals in Iran, alongside reports of torture and other forms of ill-treatment.

The rights group Hengaw has also issued warnings about the growing tide of government and societal racism toward Afghan migrants, describing the situation as "catastrophic."

For many, the contradiction in Iran’s policy, open borders on one hand, and demands for migrants to leave on the other, reflects a deeper struggle within the government to balance its geopolitical interests with rising domestic pressures.

"(We are) completely aligned on the need to tackle Iran's malign activity in the region and beyond," Lammy told reporters beside Blinken, who is visiting Britain.

"We're seeing a disturbing pattern of greater Iranian support for the Kremlin's illegal group, and we discussed today our shared commitment to holding Tehran to account for their undermining of global stability."

Blinken said Iran's decision to supply Russia with ballistic missiles threatened European security and he announced further sanctions on Tehran.

"Russia has now received shipments with these ballistic missiles, and will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine, against Ukraine," Blinken said, citing intelligence that he said has been shared with US allies and partners around the world.

The supply of Iranian missiles enables Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets that are further from the front line in Ukraine, Blinken said.

"This development and the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran threatens European security and demonstrates how Iran's destabilizing influence reaches far beyond the Middle East."

Lammy said he and Blinken would travel to Kyiv this week, the first joint visit of this kind for more than a decade.

The British foreign minister described the supply of ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia on Tuesday as a "significant escalation".

"This is a troubling action that we're seeing from Iran. It is definitely a significant escalation and we are coordinating," he said.

Lammy said he would not comment on "operational issues" when asked whether Britain would give the green light to Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia.

(Report by Reuters)

Starlink devices have been in limited use for nearly two years now but in the past two weeks there has been a sudden social media interest that is difficult to explain given the unaffordability of the terminals and monthly subscription for most Iranians.

However, the availability of Starlink is seen by many as a potential game-changer for bypassing state-imposed online restrictions, allowing greater access to unfiltered internet in Iran.

The terminals typically cost around $500, depending on the model, with a monthly subscription fee of $110. However, in the Iranian market, prices are significantly higher, reaching up to three times the standard cost. Users still need domestic internet subscriptions to connect to government websites and the banking system. Starlink alone cannot bypass these local services, as access to critical domestic infrastructures remains tied to Iran's national network, requiring users to maintain both international and domestic connections.

Installation of Starlink and speed test in Tehran

To put the potential cost in perspective, an ordinary employee earns around $200 a month and can never spend hundreds of dollars for unfettered internet access.

There is also an element of risk involved in the use of Starlink. The terminals have to be smuggled into country from neighboring countries, particularly the Iraqi Kurdistan and the Persian Gulf countries as Starlink has no regulatory approval to operate in Iran.

In October 2023, Iran's Ministry of Telecommunications demanded that SpaceX obtain licensing for Starlink operations and filed a complaint with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) over unauthorized use in Iran, which resulted in a ruling in Iran's favor. While over 60 countries have approved Starlink services, Iran is likely to demand access to user data—a request SpaceX would almost certainly reject.

Those found using Starlink in Iran risk prosecution for possessing smuggled goods. In November 2023, Iranian security forces confiscated 22 Starlink terminals, claiming they were CIA property intended for use by the office of dissident Sunni cleric Mowlavi Abdolhamid Esmail-Zehi.

The illicit terminals must be registered in the countries from where they are smuggled for the same reason and operate in ‘roaming’ mode once installed in Iran.

In many cases, social media posts suggest that multiple families in large apartment buildings share a single Starlink device to reduce the cost, similar to how satellite dishes were shared when first introduced in the 1990s, despite being banned.

Many Iranians recall police raids and jamming that rendered satellite dishes useless. The government continues to resort to jamming, especially during unrest, while also implementing internet blackouts to stifle dissent.

Since the early 2000s, the Islamic Republic has tightly controlled the internet, forcing most Iranians to rely on anti-filtering software to access blocked websites and social media. The widespread use of such software is a major cause of slow internet speeds, with allegations that influential figures behind the restrictions benefit from selling VPNs.

Iran has been working on a national network to cut off access to the global internet and gain complete control over online content.

During his campaign, President Masoud Pezeshkian criticized internet restrictions, which impact freedom and hurt hundreds of thousands of small businesses. However, his government has yet to make any meaningful changes to the strict policies set by a council that includes key state officials, such as the Revolutionary Guards and police chiefs.

Hesam Misaghi, an expert from the Persian-language Telegram channel Starlink for Iran, told Iran International that it’s difficult to determine how many Starlink terminals are currently in use in Iran. He estimates there could be between 10,000 to 20,000 terminals, based on information from merchants and installation technicians.

Starlink satellites were activated over Iran in September 2022 after the US Treasury authorized certain transactions to ensure Iranian protesters could access the internet to share footage of the crackdown. By October 2022, after the Mahsa Amini protests spread nationwide and authorities imposed internet blackouts, Starlink terminals were smuggled into Iran and activated.

In January 2023, the head of the Tehran Telecom Traders Union, Mehdi Mohebi, quoted an “official” whose identity he did not want to reveal, saying that around 800 Starlink terminals had been smuggled into Iran. A few days earlier, Elon Musk had said the number of active terminals in Iran was approaching 100.

According to the Ham-Mihan newspaper, patients are seeking refuge in countries like Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK.

As death rates among SMA patients have also risen sharply, with over 50 people having died since last year, the crisis is worsening in Iran where a flood of medical professionals have fled to seek work abroad.

Saeed Azamian, former director of the SMA Association, said the situation worsened after medication for children under 11 was halted last December, leading to the deaths of at least 20 children suffering from the genetic neuromuscular disease.

In March, Iran International reported that 10 children had died in one month alone as a result of the crisis.

A report published last year also noted that of the 781 patients registered in Iran by October 2022, 164 patients died, the majority of them during the first 20 months of life.

Over the past three years, patients and their families have protested against the Ministry of Health for failing to import or distribute the medication.

Families are selling their homes and belongings to pay brokers and immigration lawyers to seek asylum in European countries. The report cited the case of a woman named only as Zahra, who fled to the Netherlands with her sick six-year-old son. They now live in a camp but receive the expensive medication he needs for free.

Families had previously relied on campaigns for medication, but donations dwindled after President Ebrahim Raisi promised the government would supply the necessary drugs, a promise he failed to keep.

Months passed before the partial import of medicines began and patients had been paying up to 250 million tomans per bottle of Risdiplam syrup, a costly treatment for SMA. The medication was not part of Iran's official drug list until late 2021.

The Ministry of Health claimed it would assess the drug's effectiveness, but results were delayed while the efficacy of drugs like Spinraza and Risdiplam has already been proven in multiple other countries.

The Chairman of the Iranian and Foreign Joint Investment Association, Hossein Salimi, in an interview with ILNA admitted that Iran's energy crisis could be the final nail in the coffin for its already anemic foreign investment prospects. According to Salimi, the ongoing shortfall in energy production and consumption is so severe that it may deter foreign investors more than any other issue.

$5 Billion: A contrast to regional success stories

Iran’s much-publicized $5 billion in foreign investment last year is dwarfed by the figures coming out of neighboring countries. For example, the UAE attracted $22.5 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2022, and Saudi Arabia, riding the wave of Vision 2030, secured around $21 billion the same year. These numbers are several times higher than Iran’s, highlighting how far the Islamic Republic has fallen behind its regional rivals in the race to attract global capital.

While Iranian officials like Salimi say that the $5 billion investment is a small victory, the reality is that it’s hardly enough to compensate for the country's systemic mismanagement, outdated infrastructure, and the suffocating impact of international sanctions. In comparison, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, free from such constraints, have built an investor-friendly environment supported by stable energy supplies, global trade relationships, and consistent economic reforms.

Energy crisis: A ticking time bomb

Salimi’s comments underscore a critical point: even if foreign companies wanted to invest in Iran, they would face challenges due to the country’s dysfunctional energy sector. Years of underinvestment, combined with poor management, have left Iran with a 14,000-megawatt electricity deficit. As a result, the country is struggling to meet even its current consumption, let alone the additional energy needs of foreign industrial investors.

Salimi’s warning points to a reality: "If tens or hundreds of foreign industrial companies come to Iran... will we be able to provide the necessary water, electricity, and gas for these industries?" The answer, it seems, is no. Any influx of foreign business would likely run into the same problems that Iranian citizens already face—frequent blackouts, water shortages, and limited access to energy resources.

The problems run deeper than just energy shortages. Salimi’s reminder of energy giant Total's departure from Iran is emblematic of how the country’s geopolitical entanglements have stunted its growth. In 2018, after the US reimposed sanctions, Total, one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, pulled out of a multibillion-dollar gas deal, signaling to the world that Iran was simply too risky for long-term investment. Since then, the situation has only worsened, with Iran remaining on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist, limiting its ability to engage in international banking and financial exchanges.

Small investments, big problems

Salimi's mention of the $5 billion in foreign investment last year underscores another issue: the size and type of investments Iran is attracting. According to Salimi, 10-20% of this investment came from Iranians living abroad, while small Afghan investors accounted for less than 20%. More than half of the remaining investment came from companies outside these two groups, mostly in industries like food production, which require relatively small capital outlays.

Meanwhile, an energy expert, Morteza Behroozifar, warns that Iran’s oil industry alone needs $250 to $300 billion in investment to remain afloat. “We are currently experiencing shortages of gas, gasoline, and diesel," Behroozifar said in a recent interview with ISNA, adding that without massive foreign investment and a change in management, Iran’s energy sector is headed for collapse. The $5 billion that officials are highlighting is a fraction of what is required to stabilize and grow the economy.

The road ahead: Will Pezeshkian's government deliver?

President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the need for at least $100 billion in foreign investment to tackle the country’s growing problems. Yet, according to observers, attracting that kind of capital will require more than just rhetoric—it will demand systemic reform, transparency, and above all, the resolution of Iran’s energy crisis.

With a 14,000-megawatt electricity deficit, Pezeshkian’s cabinet will have to overhaul the country’s infrastructure while navigating the complex web of sanctions and international isolation that has crippled previous administrations.