Britain issues NOTAM warning pilots against flying over Lebanon

The Egyptian NOTAM, a safety notice issued to pilots and aviation authorities, said Iran’s airspace must be avoided on Thursday from 0100 to 0400 GMT, according to Reuters.

Egypt’s Civil Aviation Ministry reportedly said the notice came after Iran warned all airlines flying over the Iranian territories about 'military exercises' on Wednesday and Thursday.

However, Iran has not issued a NOTAM for its entire airspace, and just warned pilots against flying below 12,000 feet, which is below cruising altitude of civilian airlines, in western Iran.

What prompted the Egyptian notice has not been revealed amid a looming war between Iran and Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, but the Iranian government is blaming its adversary.

On X, the OPS group, a membership organization that shares information about international flight operations, wrote "such a NOTAM from Egypt is very unusual. It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of air space disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason."

Is this the window of attack?

Many are left wondering if this could be the window that Iran will use to retaliate against Israel?

Experts advise caution on reaching conclusions just yet. The answer, they said, is not a simple yes or no, but rather a myriad of reasons.

"No one has a clear sense of Iran's timing for a response," said Bessma Momani, a Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo in Canada.

Momani said it would be be highly unusual for Iran to share information of a potential strike on Israel with Egypt.

"Regional actors are trying to get prepared and to signal their preparedness but I doubt Egypt would be privy to any information on when or if Iran and its allies plan on responding to Israel with a military attack," she added.

"Cordial but not warm," is how Momani described Egypt-Iran relations. Momani is also a Senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI) and sits on the National Security Transparency Advisory Group to advise the government of Canada.

Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, said the specific time and date of the NOTAM doesn't necessarily indicate a potential launch of strikes.

He said in past operations, the Islamic Republic has launched missiles and drones from western Iran.

"I thought it was a very specific window of time, but it could mean a lot of different things. It could mean a military drill. It could mean preparations for an attack. There are a lot of different ways to interpret it, so it's hard to know," said Brodsky.

The Egyptian NOTAM is not the only notice related to Iran-Israel tensions. Jordan has also asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes of reserve fuel amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.

The UK also issued a NOTAM advising UK-registered air operators to avoid entering the Beirut Flight Information Region (the Lebanese airspace) from 16:40 (UTC) August 7, 2024, to November 4, 2024, due to potential risks from military activity in the region.

The NOTAM comes amid escalating fears of a conflict between Israel and Iran, which could involve Lebanon, particularly through the involvement of Iran-backed Hezbollah.

The chair of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) warned about the possibility of a "wider conflict" in the Middle East, following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

“This heinous act serves only to escalate the existing tensions potentially leading to a wider conflict that could involve the entire region,” said Gambia's foreign minister Mamadou Tangara, currently chairing the OIC.

The emergency OIC meeting was held in Jeddah on Wednesday.

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian has pleaded with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to hold back a promised retaliatory attack on Israel, warning that further escalation would have a devastating impact on his new-won presidency, sources familiar with the matter told Iran International on condition of anonymity.

In a recent meeting with Khamenei, Pezeshkian urged the 85-year-old ruler to prevent any direct Iranian attack on Israel to avoid a full-blown war that would deepen Iran's existing socio-economic woes.

The sources told Iran International that Pezeshkian warned that a potential Israeli retaliation targeting Iran's energy infrastructure could cripple the Iranian economy and even lead to the state's collapse. 

Despite this grave warnings, Khamenei remained noncommittal during the session, neither validating nor opposing the president's concerns, according to the sources.

Read more here.

Iran has been threatening to launch a direct missile attack against Israel to avenge the July 31 assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, despite calls for restraint by its friends and foes. However, this desire for vengeance is apparently not shared by all high-ranking officials in Tehran, as there are voices expressing concern about the potential repercussions.

In a recent meeting with Khamenei, President Pezeshkian urged the 85-year-old ruler Khamenei to prevent any direct Iranian attack on Israel to avoid escalating tensions into an unwanted war, the informed sources told Iran International. This potential conflict, Pezeshkian warned, could severely disrupt his presidency and lead to significant problems. 

Pezeshkian cautioned that a decision by Israel to launch harsh retaliatory attack against Iran's national infrastructure and energy resources could cripple the Iranian economy and potentially lead to the country's collapse.

Despite the grave warnings, sources said, Khamenei remained noncommittal during the session, neither supporting nor opposing Pezeshkian’s concerns.

Pezeshkian further warned about the rhetoric and actions of senior military commanders that could drag the country into war, noting that he faces relentless pressure from factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who demand a strong military response against Israel, regardless of the significant social and economic costs involved, said the sources who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the case.

The president asserted that his opposition to military action is rooted in national interest and not due to a lack of knowledge or experience in security and military matters, as claimed by hardliners. He stressed that initiating a war with Israel would make economic recovery and bridging the already deep divide between the Islamic Republic and its citizens impossible, severely damaging Iran's international standing, which the country desperately needs to improve.

IRGC Chief-Commander Hossein Salami on Monday said Israel will learn a lesson once it receives Iran's "severe response". Iranian authorities also told Arab countries that the country no longer cares whether its attack on Israel will trigger an all-out war in the Middle East, a report by The Wall Street Journal said.

Last week, a close aide to Pezeshkian told The Telegraph that the security lapse that resulted in Ismail Haniyeh's killing in Iran "may have been an intentional bid by the IRGC to harm the new president’s reputation. “No unharmed brain can accept that this happened by accident, especially on Pezeshkian’s first day in office,” he said. “He may have to go to war with Israel in his first few days in office and it’s all because of the IRGC.”

The president’s private plea for restraint contrasts with his public statements affirming Iran’s right to respond to Israel’s killing of Haniyeh, though he has largely avoided using inflammatory language and even told world leaders Tehran does not seek escalation.

In comments on Wednesday, Pezeshkian made it clear that he would not question the policies dictated by the Supreme Leader in public and in his meetings with foreign officials. “At the inauguration and swearing-in ceremonies, I was told to speak about the country's problems, but the fourteenth government does not permit itself to criticize Iran in front of other nations."

Pezeshkian said in a Monday meeting with top Russian security official Sergei Shoigu that "Iran is by no means seeking to expand the scope of the crisis in the region, but this regime will certainly receive a response for its crimes and arrogance." Shoigu was visiting Tehran to convey Vladimir Putin’s message of de-escalation to Iranian authorities.

The Iranian president also told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday that “Iran reserves the right to give an appropriate response” to Israel’s killing of Ismail Haniyeh, without repeating the harshly worded statements of the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader and military authorities. 

In his recent meeting with Khamenei, the newly elected president emphasized the importance of “citizens' trust in their elected representatives”, highlighting the low voter turnout in the recent presidential election as an indicator of deep-seated distrust, the sources told Iran International.

Iran’s 2024 presidential election -- held almost a year early, after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May – witnessed the lowest-ever voter turnout rate in the history of the Islamic Republic.

More than 16 million voted for Pezeshkian, according to official figures, many in the hope of preventing hardliners from heading all three branches of government, even though Pezeshkian himself announced he will be implementing the policies dictated by Ali Khamenei.

Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi warned about potential "devastation" in the Middle East and called for "transformative" actions to get a ceasefire in Gaza.

"We need to do something really transformative here, regardless of where Iran is, where Israel is at this point, if we are to forces Israel to accept a ceasefire, end the aggression in Gaza," he told CNN.

Jordan did help in the joint operation with the US and others to intercept Iran's missiles and drones in the last round of escalation in April.

"We have two paths: a path that drives the region further to the abyss of war or a path that would say enough is enough and save the region from the devastation of an all-out war," he added.