The cold war between the two countries heated up a few more degrees last week, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, promised a harsh response that many believe would happen sooner rather than later.
“I think [the Iranians] have to respond,” Petraeus told Iran International's Marzia Hussaini, “this is an enormous blow to Iran's honor… It's a huge intelligence failure and… a security failure. So, they have to respond. But I don't think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back and forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don't think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran… I don't think they want to get into this with each other, because the damage to both sides would be very, very substantial.”
Governments in the region and beyond have intensified their diplomatic efforts in anticipation of Iran’s attack that they fear could spiral the cycle of retaliations out of control and drag them into yet another war in the Middle East. Little is known of the scale and the nature of Iran’s promised ‘revenge’ at this stage, but many fear that it could be more serious than the last retaliatory attack in April.
“There's a whole menu,” General Petraeus said on the potential targets of an Iranian operation. “I'm sure they're looking at everything from trying to hit a military site…all the way up to hitting critical infrastructure or a major port or something like that. If that actually was to succeed, Israel would have to respond in a very massive way, not unlike the way that they responded to the Houthi drone attack… and they did enormous damage to the port of Hodeidah in Yemen.”
The current round of escalation began last Wednesday when Haniyeh was assassinated while in Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Fingers were immediately pointed at Israel, which has held to its customary silence on such matters in the face of the almost universal belief that the Israeli secret services were behind the assassination.
“My sense is that the Israeli intelligence services, once again, have demonstrated how thoroughly they have penetrated different elements inside Iran,” Petraeus said about the operation that killed Haniyeh. “The most plausible explanation that I have heard of how this was carried out is that it was a result of a bomb planted months ago in the guest house where Haniyeh ultimately stayed… This is really quite extraordinary in a country that, in many respects, is viewed as a denied space to other intelligence services.”
Iranian officials were largely silent on the details of the attack that had killed Haniyeh. It was the New York Times that first reported the ‘bomb’ scenario. The assassination has put the IRGC in the spotlight, as many inside Iran, even among former officials, criticize the intelligence apparatus and call for “investigation” and “clear answers” over security lapses that allowed the assassination.
Iran’s posture would not change with Pezeshkian
Gen. Petraeus was asked by Hussaini about the outlook of the conflicts in the Middle East and whether or not Iran’s new administration under Pezeshkian might be able to change things.
“The really concerning aspects of Iran, the drones and missile that they're selling to Russia, support for these malign actors…and armed forces that they support in Gaza, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Shia militia in Iraq and in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, I don't think he has any control over that,” Petraeus said. “What he might be able to do, would be to reduce the role of the religious police in enforcing the hijab and that actually could provide some degree of relief for the people. It's possible he could carry out limited reforms of the economy.”
Pezeshkian has indeed promised to address Iran’s worsening economic situation. However, many experts inside Iran say it’s next to impossible to effect meaningful change without a drastic shift in Iran’s foreign and nuclear policy that would relieve the country’s economy of sanctions.
But General Petraeus was not too optimistic about a breakthrough in the nuclear front, warning that the next US administration may have little incentive to get softer with Iran.
‘Tougher’ policy under Trump or Harris
“I suspect that the policy gets much tougher after the election, regardless of who is elected,” the former CIA director said. “Donald Trump has said that he will reimpose some of the sanctions… I think that a Harris presidency will do the same. The truth is right now, in an election year, you're worried about the price of gasoline at the gas pump, and if they, for example, impose sanctions that reduce the ability of Iran to export 1.5 million barrels of oil and distillates, the price of gas is going to go up.”
Petraeus called Iran an “enemy” whose ultimate goal is to push the United States out of the Middle East. He warned, however, that that may not be a real option for any American administration.
“This continued effort of the US to leave the Middle East is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia. You just keep getting sucked back in, and you might as well acknowledge that and determine what is the most effective and efficient force structure required to ensure our objectives in the region, and then maintain that, sustain it and stop scaring all the people in the region who are afraid that we're going to leave,” he said.
