Iran has reportedly arrested over two dozen people including security and intelligence officials after the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran exposed a humiliating security lapse.
The assassination was carried out despite heightened security measures due to the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian which took place one day earlier, underscoring a severe breach. Reports are now suggesting that it might have been an "inside job".
A report by the New York Times says over two dozen individuals, including senior intelligence officers, military officials, and staff at the guesthouse, have been detained in connection with the incident.
The Revolutionary Guards Corps' (IRGC) specialized intelligence unit is now spearheading the investigation, tasked with identifying those responsible, the New York Times said.
Iranian authorities have not yet confirmed making any arrests in connection with the assassination. Despite the vague public statements, the severity of the situation is clear, as it shows the Islamic Republic cannot even protect its guests and allies.
"The perception that Iran can neither protect its homeland nor its key allies could be fatal for the Iranian regime, because it basically signals to its foes that if they can’t topple the Islamic Republic, they can decapitate it," said Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, speaking to the New York Times.
This incident emerges against the backdrop of a protracted covert war between Iran and Israel, characterized by targeted assassinations and sabotage. Iranian officials and Hamas have accused Israel of orchestrating the attack, while Israel has remained silent, neither confirming nor denying its involvement.
The IRGC on Saturday declared that Haniyeh was assassinated with a "short-range projectile with a warhead of approximately 7 kilograms" in Tehran. The IRGC also asserted that "this action was designed and implemented by the Zionist regime and supported by the criminal government of America."
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardastani, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, confirmed on Saturday that there are "gaps and impurities" in the Islamic Republic's security and intelligence system. He outlined "two probable scenarios" regarding Haniyeh's death: "One is that the Israelis used a drone and targeted the location from the mountains north of Tehran. The second scenario is that no drone was involved; rather, a number of infiltrators within Iran positioned themselves near the same mountain and used a missile-like weapon to strike Haniyeh's residence."
However, Western media reports suggest that Haniyeh was killed by explosive devices planted well in advance in his room, possibly by agents recruited by Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency. A report by The Telegraph says the devices were placed in three separate rooms of the guesthouse, pointing to a meticulously planned operation.
The original plan was to assassinate Haniyeh during the funeral of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's former president, in May. However, the operation was aborted due to the large crowds inside the building, which significantly increased the risk of failure, the report said.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior analyst at the Washington Institute and an expert on Iran's defense and security issues in the Persian Gulf region, has questioned the likelihood of a bombing, telling Iran International, "While Israel has the capability to carry out such a bombing, according to reports, Haniyeh had been staying in a hotel until the night of the incident. Therefore, he did not have a fixed location that could have been targeted with a bomb planted there months earlier." Nadimi suggested that targeting Haniyeh with a projectile remains the strongest scenario.
A system in disarray
The incident has not only embarrassed Iran's leadership but also exposed the system's vulnerabilities at a time when it seeks to project strength and stability. The IRGC, responsible for the Islamic Republic's security, now faces an unprecedented challenge in regaining control and preventing further breaches. This assassination underscores the precariousness of Iran's internal security and the challenges it faces from both external and internal strife.
It has also sparked a blame game within the ranks of the IRGC, with internal factions speculating about possible complicity at higher levels. The Telegraph report also cited a close aide to President Pezeshkian, suggesting that the security lapse resulting in Haniyeh's killing "may have been an intentional bid by the IRGC to harm the new president’s reputation."
The aide expressed disbelief at the incident happening by accident, especially on Pezeshkian’s first day in office, suggesting it might lead to war with Israel, all due to the IRGC.
Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also believes the attack sought to destabilize Iran during a sensitive political transition.
While it is not yet fully clear how Haniyeh was killed, the incident has brought "a tremendous embarrassment for the IRGC" and triggered a heightened state of alert within the Iranian leadership.
