Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Shortly after Turkey began exporting electricity to Iraq this week, Iran ceased its deliveries to its neighbor due to an increasingly worsening domestic power deficit.
The National Iraqi News Agency cited an official source on July 23, reporting that the country’s Diyala province experienced a massive power outage due to the cessation of Iranian electricity deliveries from both transmission lines for unknown reasons. The report suggests that Iran has stopped supplying 250 megawatts (MW) of electricity, while the region requires 900 MW due to rising temperatures.
The two transmission lines from Iran to Diyala have a combined transmission capacity of 550 MW. However, until July 20, Iran had only been delivering 250 MW to Diyala due to an intensified domestic deficit.
According to Iran's Ministry of Energy statistics archive, the country’s net electricity exports have drastically decreased from 2012 to 2022, indicating a substantial reduction in the surplus of electricity available for export. The country imported about three terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan while exporting 4 TWh in 2022, with the majority going to Iraq. This puts Iran’s net electricity export at 1 TWh, which is eight times less than the 2012 level.
Iran's Ministry of Energy halted public access to its statistics in June 2023. However, some Iranian officials have stated that the country’s electricity trade balance has been zero since last summer, meaning that the Islamic Republic has been exporting electricity equal to its imports. It now appears that Iran's summer electricity deficit has reached a point where it cannot sustain its exports at the same level as its imports.
Meanwhile, Turkey's Energy Minister announced on July 22 the commencement of exporting 300 MW of electricity to Iraq. Additionally, since March 2024, Baghdad has begun importing electricity from Jordan. The country is also negotiating deals with Saudi Arabia and Oman to import electricity, though these agreements have not yet been finalized.
In 2023, Turkey launched 2,800 MW of solar and wind power plants. According to the latest statistics from Turkey's Energy Market Regulatory Authority, it added 3,500 MW of new solar and wind farms, as well as 600 MW of hydroelectric capacity, to its power generation during January-May 2024.
Turkey's growth in renewable electricity generation capacity in the first four months of 2024 exceeds more than twice the total electricity generation growth of Iran from all types of power plants over the past year. The country plans to add 7,000 MW of renewables this year.
In contrast, the Iranian government targeted the launch of 2,850 MW of solar and wind power plants last year but only achieved 2% of this goal. Most of Iran's newly launched power plants last year were steam and gas types with efficiencies of only 29% to 33%. This year, Iran faces a summer electricity deficit of 14,000 to 18,000 MW, equivalent to 20% to 25% of the country's electricity demand.
Iraq’s power plants also heavily rely on Iranian gas imports. The Iranian state, however, faces a significant gas deficit in winters and halts gas deliveries to its western neighbor. As a result, Iraq loses 4,000 to 5,000 MW of its electricity generation capacity in winters due to these interruptions.
Though Iraq recently extended a gas import deal with Iran for the next five years, it has been striving to diversify its energy import sources, including importing gas from Turkmenistan through Iran.
Iraq has also set a goal to stop gas flaring by 2028 and achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2030. The country is working to reduce its heavy reliance on Iranian energy supplies, which are subject to sanctions that necessitate the US to issue waivers every four months.
The four women have been identified as Pakhshan Azizi, Sharifeh Mohammadi, Varisheh Moradi, and Nasim Gholami Simiyari.
While Azizi and Mohammadi have received a death sentence in recent weeks, the verdicts for Moradi and Simiyari are pending. However, given the armed rebellion charges they face, activists have warned that they could be at high risk of execution.
Article 287 of the Islamic Penal Code states that any group taking up arms against the Islamic Republic is considered a rebel and "its members shall be sentenced to death.”
Rights groups, activists, and Evin Prison inmates have condemned the authorities' actions, sparking widespread protests on social media and from human rights organizations against the Islamic Republic's harsh treatment of female activists.
Varisheh Moradi
Accordin to Iran International sources, the second court session for Varisheh Moradi on the charge of "armed rebellion" is scheduled for August 4 at Tehran’s Islamic Revolution Court, presided over by Judge Abolqasem Salavati.
This date was set without allowing her lawyers access to review her case. During her first court session on June 13, Salavati, infamously known as the "Judge of Death" for his severe human rights violations and death sentences on dubious charges, did not permit Moradi's lawyers to defend her.
Nasim Gholami Simiyari
On Saturday, a court session was held for Nasim Gholami Simiyari, a protester of Iran’s 2022 nationwide "Woman Life Freedom" uprising, on the charge of "armed rebellion" in a joint case.
The session took place at Branch 26 of the Tehran Revolutionary Court, presided over by Judge Iman Afshari, notorious for human rights violations. Afshari was sanctioned by the UK in 2022 for being "involved in the commission of serious human rights violations in Iran, namely being responsible for serious violations with respect to the right to a fair trial and the right to freedom of expression of political protesters."
Simiyari is currently detained at Tehran’s Evin prison and awaits a verdict. She was arrested on May 18, 2023, by IRGC intelligence agents in Tehran. Initially held in solitary confinement in Ward 1A, she was interrogated before being moved to the notorious Ward 2A and finally to the women's ward of Evin Prison on September 26, 2023.
After five months, she was charged with "assembly and collusion against national security," "propaganda against the regime," and "armed rebellion" in a joint case. US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) citing Gholami Simiyari’s friend reported that she endured psychological and physical torture, resulting in forced confessions recorded on camera under duress.
Pakhshan Azizi
Political prisoner, Pakhshan Azizi was sentenced to death and an additional four years in prison on charges of "armed rebellion." The verdict was handed down by Judge Afshari of Branch 26 of the Tehran Revolutionary Court, with her lawyers being informed of the judgment on July 23.
On Saturday, Norway-based Iran Human Rights urged the International community to demand charges against Pakhshan and all others detained for their peaceful civil activities to be dropped.
“Pakhshan Azizi’s death sentence has no legal basis and was issued by the Islamic Republic’s non-independent judicial system at the behest of the security forces in order to suppress civil movement. The international community must react to her sentence in the strongest terms,” Iran Human Rights Director, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam said in a statement.
Sixty female political prisoners at Tehran’s Evin Prison staged an overnight sit-in on Wednesday to protest against Azizi’s death sentence.
The Instagram accounts of Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi, Iranian civil rights activist Golrokh Iraee, and German-Iranian rights activist Nahid Taghavi jointly announced that Evin's women unanimously demand the annulment of the Iranian-Kurdish political prisoner's death sentence.
Sharifeh Mohammadi
Labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi was sentenced to death in early July on charges of "armed rebellion" by Judge Ahmad Darvish Goftar of Branch 1 of the Revolutionary Court of Rasht.
The Campaign to Defend Mohammadi stated on Instagram that the sentence is "based on the pretext of Mohammadi's membership in an independent, public, and legal labor organization a decade ago, demonstrating the baselessness of the verdict."
Rights groups and activists have been campaigning against Mohammadi’s death sentence since it was issued in July.
Last year, 834 prisoners were executed in Iran, including at least 22 women, marking the highest number since 2014, according to Iran Human Rights, making Iran the world's leading executioner of women.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Saturday the rocket used in the deadly attack was an Iranian-made Falaq-1 fired by Hezbollah.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani dismissed the accusations on Sunday, stating, "Israel's statements will not be heeded by others." However, Kanaani did not make it clear whether he means no Iranian rocket was used in the attack or the Iranian proxy group did not fire any munition at the civilian target.
Israel has vowed to respond to the suspected Hezbollah attack, with the country's national broadcaster Kann News citing officials as saying that the Israeli response to the attack "might lead to several days of intense fighting."
The attack has also sparked widespread reactions across the world.
The White House condemned the attack and blamed Hezbollah for it, saying, "It was their rocket, and launched from an area they control." It added that Washington has been in discussions with Israeli and Lebanese officials since Saturday's attack, which it described as "horrific."
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also said that all signs point to Hezbollah's involvement, emphasizing Israel’s right to self-defense while stating that the United States does not seek an escalation of regional conflicts. At a press conference in Tokyo, Blinken expressed condolences for the loss of life and reiterated the US stance against terrorism.
“There is no justification for terrorism, period, and every indication is that indeed the rockets were from or the rocket was from Hezbollah. We stand by Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks,” he added.
The Saturday attack has left the community of Majdal Shams in deep mourning. Thousands gathered for the funeral of the victims, marking a day of profound sorrow. At the funeral on Sunday, weeping men wearing traditional, red-topped white hats carried 10 white-covered caskets through the crowded streets. Women dressed in black abaya robes cried as they laid flowers on the caskets, with some mourners carrying large photos of the deceased children.
Fadi Mahmud, a 48-year-old resident, in an interview with AFP described the incident as a significant loss for the close-knit community. "It was the first time Majdal Shams had experienced such a loss during the war." "Our community is very close-knit. These children are like children of everybody in the village."
In the early 1980s, Iran established Hezbollah in Lebanon as a proxy force to confront Israel. In 2018, the US government reported that Iran annually provides Hezbollah with an estimated $700 million. Earlier, in a 2016 speech, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, publicly stated that Iran is the source of his organization’s funding. The financial support bolsters Hezbollah’s substantial military capabilities, including an arsenal of roughly 150,000 missiles and rockets targeted at Israel.
Full-blown Israel-Hezbollah war
The deadly attack blamed on Hezbollah has stoked fears of a full-fledged war between Israel and the Lebanese group, with Lebanon's Middle East Airlines delaying some of its Beirut flight arrivals, and several European countries advising citizens to leave Lebanon.
However, Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer in international relations at George Washington University, believes a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely due to the prohibitive cost.
“Despite the threats being made, my analysis is that we are far from a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah for several reasons," Ghaedi told Iran International.
He said the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon cost around three and a half billion dollars. “Today, an attack on Hezbollah could cost more than 50 billion dollars. Additionally, Hezbollah's enhanced capabilities, including precision missiles, position them to retaliate effectively against Israeli targets.”
According to security sources, Hezbollah has preemptively evacuated several key sites in southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley in anticipation of a potential attack by Israel.
Ghaedi believes that Israel will likely conduct limited strikes in response to Hezbollah, aiming to resolve political differences within Israel and seek international condemnation of Hezbollah.
He referred to the rocket used in the attack, allegedly an Iranian-made Falaq, as a central point of tension. “If confirmed, it could prompt small-scale Israeli responses within Iran, following Naftali Bennett’s ‘thousand cuts’ strategy against the Islamic Republic."
The conflict might have broader implications, potentially involving other powers such as the United States and Iran. However, Ghaedi finds it unlikely that Iran-backed forces in Iraq and Syria will enter a conflict under current circumstances.
Trump’s last tenure was highly 'eventful' for Iranians. The former president withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal, ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani—arguably Iran’s second most powerful figure after the Supreme Leader — and imposed extensive oil sanctions that put unprecedented pressure on Iran’s economy.
It’s little surprise, then, that many seem to dread Trump’s potential second term. The annual inflation rate is already ‘back-breaking’, as we say in Persian, hovering above 40% for three years. Corruption is rampant. Another round of Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” would push millions off the cliff – or drag the country into war. And still, many say they’d like Trump to win. It is impossible to say how many, but it’s a sizable chunk of the population.
“Trump may be bad for us, but he’s worse for the regime,” says Farhad, an IT technician looking for a job. He was “kicked out” of work after he was arrested during the 2022 protests. “Trump is no Biden,” he says, “and his Iran advisers are not [former Iranian FM] Zarif chums. The pressure he’d exert could hasten the collapse of the regime.” What about ordinary Iranians, I ask, what if there’s a war, what would happen to their lives? “You call this a life?” he snaps back.
Farhad is 23. He’s visibly angry and has little to lose –materially at least. Those who do have something to lose, the ‘better-off’, see things differently.
“People have suffered enough these past years. We need the sanctions lifted, and that’s more likely with a Democratic administration. Trump has shown no goodwill towards Iran,” says Arash, an engineering student who actively campaigned for Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. “Iran cannot prosper with anti-Americanism. I voted for Pezeshkian because he seems less aggressive and might be able to negotiate a deal with the US and attract the foreign investment our country desperately needs.”
That may very well be wishful thinking, given what US officials have said on record and the fact that Iran’s foreign policy is dictated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not the president. Still, many Iranians share Arash’s hope for a miracle. However, a Trump victory this November seems much more likely. This prospect terrifies Arash as much as it thrills Farhad.
And then there’s Farkhondeh, a 29-year-old journalist who avidly follows US politics. She believes both the fear and hope that Trump would put more pressure on Iran may be exaggerated, if not entirely misplaced. “I think Trump is as likely to enter negotiations with Iran as [Kamala] Harris,” Farkhondeh says. “Trump’s record is not that of a warmonger. He’s a businessman. I think he wouldn't hesitate to talk to Khamenei if the latter was willing. That said, I don’t think any good for ordinary Iranians would come out of such a negotiation. Both sides would be more than happy to sell us out for their own interests.”
Curiously, almost everybody I talked to focused on Trump. There are no polls on this, but it seems rather clear that most Iranians believe the former US president would win again. Neither in social networks nor among my acquaintances have I seen anyone who sees Harris defeating Trump. This could be a result of Trump’s aggressive demeanor, which makes his opponent appear weak, or it could be because he’s a former president. But it’s also because Harris is a woman.
Sex or gender may be less of an issue in the US, but it remains significant in Iran, where no woman has ever passed the vetting process to enter a presidential race. The highest position a woman has reached in the Islamic Republic is Minister of Health—and that only once. Strangely, many view this as a ‘capability’ issue rather than a direct result of fanatical religious orthodoxy.
“America and Iran may differ socially, but I think being a woman will work against a candidate even there.” Sima, a 40-year-old woman who works at a publishing house said. She regularly posts about women's rights on Instagram, but takes little interest in the US election, even though a woman is in the race. “I like Harris to win,” Sima says, “but it won’t make much difference to us here either way.” She believes the impact of US elections on Iran is “exaggerated” – and it benefits the government.
“Iranian officials fuel this notion by constantly referring to the US as the enemy,” Sima says. “America is a scapegoat for their incompetence and corruption. Many have bought this idea, thinking that either disaster or redemption awaits us if Trump wins. Both are misguided, in my view. We better focus on our own rulers and let the Americans worry about theirs.”