Iran Incentivizes Religious Leaders to Boost Population

The all male list consists of senior government figures such as hardliner Saeed Jalili who is Ali Khamenei's representative in the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Parliament Speaker and Masoud Pezeshkian, a 'reformist' parliamentarian.

Several high-profile figures were disqualified from running, including ex-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, and former Vice President Es’haq Jahangiri.

The pattern is similar to the 2021 election, when Ahmadinejad and Larijani were rejected and only a second-echelon 'moderate' candidate was allowed to run. The result was a low-turnout election when Ebrahim Raisi passed the line in the first round.

Some analysts in Iran have told the local media that the race now will most likely be between Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator and an opponent of an agreement with the West, and Ghalibaf who is considered a more flexible politician. In any case, the issue of relations with the West and the fate of Iran's nuclear program are under the purview of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Also selected to run is Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a former minister of justice and interior, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, a current Vice President, and another hardliner, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani. 

Jalili, 58, is making his third presidential bid, having been a significant figure in Iran's nuclear negotiation team and holding various senior positions within the ministry of foreign affairs. Jalili, who holds a Ph.D. in political science from Imam Sadiq University, is noted for his uncompromising conservative stance.

Former IRGC general Ghalibaf, 63, and the current Parliament Speaker, is known for his military and political experience.

The only reform leaning candidate, Pezeshkian, 69, has served as health minister and chancellor of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences. He is also a trained cardiac surgeon, holding a medical degree from Tabriz University.

Pourmohammadi, 64, infamous for his role in the "Death Commission" during the 1980s, has been a polarizing figure due to his past actions as deputy intelligence minister.

Ghazizadeh Hashemi, 53, currently serving as Vice President, head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, and an ENT surgeon, has maintained a conservative stance throughout his political career, representing the Mashhad and Kalat electoral district in Parliament for several terms. He holds a medical degree from Mashhad University of Medical Sciences.

Mayor of Tehran, Zakani, 58, noted for his confrontational style and conservative views. holds a Ph.D. in nuclear medicine from Tehran University of Medical Sciences. He has been an outspoken critic of the nuclear deal and a key figure in the conservative camp supporting the crackdowns on women defying compulsory hijab.

The snap election follows the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi who died in a helicopter crash on May 19 along with his entourage.

The candidates' approval by the Guardian Council, a body of clerics known for its allegiance to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, highlights the clerical rulers' continued grip on power. The upcoming elections are expected to see record low participation as the population rejects the sham polls rigged by the country's theocratic dictator.

The disqualification of heavyweights such as outspoken Ahmadinejad and Larijani came with mixed reactions from among the public. Ahmadinejad was highly unlikely to get through, but many thought that Larijani, as a quiet insider, will make it to final stage considering Khamenei's comment after his "unfair disqualification" in 2021.

On the other hand, the 'reformists' must be somewhat disappointed as only one of their official candidates has his credentials approved, Iranian analyst and Iran International contributor Behruz Turani said. The only reform-minded candidate, Pezeshkian's chances to win the presidency is uncertain because of his ethnic voter base, something that Khamenei is known to detest.

The final battle will be among "revolutionary" Jalili, insider Ghalibaf, and ambitious Zakani, observers say. Khamenei sees no difference among them although he definitely does not like Jalili's link to the over-ambitious and ultra-hardliner Paydari party, Turani argued.

In view of the security situation in the post 2022 protests, Khamenei's ideal candidates are more likely Ghalibaf and Zakani, both experienced IRGC and Basij operatives with a proven track record of suppressing dissent.

The Guardian Council, which has ultimate control over the final list of candidates as approved by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, will announce the candidates in the coming days. Eighty people have registered for the upcoming snap presidential elections scheduled for June 28 following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. 

Turnout is expected to be at a record low as the public remains aware that the decision for the sham elections lies ultimately in the hands of Khamenei.

Hadi Tahan Nazif, spokesperson for the Guardian Council, claimed Sunday: "The voting itself is entirely confidential, and the members do not know each other's votes. Opinions may be expressed during the discussion, and positions of agreement and opposition may become clear, but the members' votes during the voting process remain hidden."

Reform Front Spokesman Javad Emam on Friday nominated the Front's candidates as former Roads and Urban Planning Minister Abbas Akhundi, Member of parliament from Tabriz Massoud Pezeshkian, and former vice president Es'haq Jahangiri. Eman said that two thirds of the Front members voted for the three candidates. Now it all hinges on which one these candidates, if any, will be approved by the non-elected Guardian Council and be allowed to compete in the vote.

Earlier, the Reform Front and leading ‘reformist’ figure Former President Mohammad Khatami had said that they will not take part in the election if the Guardian Council does not endorse the qualifications of at least one of those nominated by the Reform Front.

The Reform Front is an umbrella organization of two dozens of reformist groups and political parties.

Meanwhile, conservative father figure former Majles Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, who leads one of the conservative coalitions, told Entekhab News website that "If the conservatives follow the same strategy as in the 2013 presidential election, they will bring about their own defeat by dividing into different rival groups.

In 2013, moderates and reformists joined hands and won the election while several conservative candidates who refused to form a coalition lost the presidential election to moderate Hassan Rouhani who was backed also by the Reform Camp.

Haddad-Adel warned that all the conservative candidates should try to reach an agreement over one single candidate for the entire conservative camp. He was referring to "revolutionaries" such as Roads Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash, several candidates including Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili from within the incumbent government, which is the legacy of the Raisi administration. Other conservatives include former member of Supreme Leader AIi Khamenei's office Vahid Haghanian, Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, his predecessor Ali Larijani and several other low-key conservative figures.

During a speech to the coalition of the "Revolutionary Forces," Haddad-Adel defended Ghalibaf against his political rivals who had accused him of financial corruption. Meanwhile he called for the unity of the conservative front in the aftermath of the death of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May and echoed Khamenei's call for electing a revolutionary, hard-working insider as Iran's new President. He added that the presence of candidates from various political groups showed "religious democracy" in action.

Interestingly, ultra-hardliner newspaper editor Hossein Shariatmadari also backed Ghalibaf on Sunday against hardliners. He is usually seen as reflecting the thinking of Khamenei’s headquarters.

In another development, a former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi said in an interview that either Ghalibaf or Larijani are going to win the presidential election. He added that the candidacy of five of the incumbent government officials in this election is disgraceful. He also characterized the candidacy of two brothers from the same family, deputy Majles Speaker Ali Nikzad and his brother, as laughable.

Conservative political activist Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, on the other hand, said that the main competition will be between ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Majles Speaker Ghalibaf. He opined that it is unlikely the Guardian Council would endorse Larijani's qualifications.

Moghaddam argued that the Guardian Council faces a serious challenge, as disqualifying most of the 80 registered candidates is difficult, given that many are incumbent and former officials. Unlike many Iranian politicians who criticize Ghalibaf for running in the presidential election just one week after becoming Majles Speaker, Moghaddam noted that around 200 members of the Iranian parliament have backed Ghalibaf's candidacy. Nevertheless, his decision to run came as a surprise to many others.

UK maritime agencies reported on Sunday that two ships caught on fire after being hit by projectiles off Yemen's Aden, showing that Houthis controlling northern Yemen and supported by Tehran are determined to launch multiple attacks each day against international shipping.

The attacks began in mid-November after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on Muslim nations to blockade Israeli trade.

Hezbollah, controlling the southern region of Lebanon bordering northern Israel, has also intensified its rocket and missile attacks on Israel, prompting fears of an all-out war, as Israeli patience runs out with the worsening security situation.

The twin flare-ups coincided with a Western initiated censure of Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting in Vienna.

A resolution tabled by Britain, France and Germany, and reluctantly backed by the United States, demanded Tehran to cooperate with the UN nuclear watchdog. Such a resolution could be the prelude to a move by Western powers to refer Iran’s case back to the UN Security Council, which could lead to the reimposition of UN sanctions.

Days before the censure resolution, the three European powers had written to the Security Council detailing Iran's violations of its 2015 nuclear deal, a step diplomats said aimed to pressure Tehran to resolve the issue diplomatically and to avoid reimposing UN sanctions.

The British, French and German letter did not explicitly threaten to "snap back" United Nations sanctions, but it noted that UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and provided that power, expires on Oct. 18, 2025.

Amidst Iran's snap presidential election campaign, the reaction to the Western move has been largely controlled. However, many outside the circle of ruling hardliners are concerned about the ramifications of the IAEA resolution.

Kourosh Ahmadi, a former Iranian diplomat based in New York, told Entekhab newspaper in Tehran, that the European move could be a prelude to tabling Iran’s case in the Security Council, because that will become impossible after Resolution 2231 expires in 2025. However, Ahmadi added that at this juncture he believes the West is simply applying pressure on Iran.

As Iran’s presidential campaign kicks off in earnest following the Guardian Council's announcement of approved candidates in the coming days, the elephant in the room remains the nuclear issue and the urgent need to lift US sanctions.

For the average Iranian citizen, the prolonged economic crisis has made the main question whether there will be a reduction in sanctions. This would require Iran to demonstrate real flexibility, a decision that ultimately lies with Khamenei rather than the future president. However, the outcome of the highly regime-controlled election could provide hints about his thinking.

Commentators in Tehran tell the local media that former nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, is a strong candidate because he enjoys the backing of hardliners. Two other strong candidate are Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and former Speaker Ali Larijani, both enjoying the backing of the wider conservative circle.

While Jalili is seen as a risky persona because of his staunch opposition to any deal with the West, Ghalibaf and Larijani are perceived as more ‘moderate’ figures. All three, however, are loyal to Khamenei.

If the election is managed in a way that Jalili becomes president, it would send a more negative message regarding relations with West, while the election of Ghalibaf or Larijani might be interpreted as a less provocative choice. The election of a hardliner other than Jalili is also possible, but overall, the new president must follow what is decided in Khamenei’s headquarters.

Bagheri, speaking to CNN TÜRK, said, "They [Israel] should not forget the defeat in 2006. If they want to fall from the Gaza swamp into the Lebanese well, we do not recommend it," he stated, referring to the second Lebanon war which came to an end after UN Resolution 1701. 

Bagheri's comments were made at the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Economic Cooperation Organization of the Eight Developing Countries (D-8), during which he called for an outright boycott of Israel and levied heavy accusations against Western nations, particularly the USA and Europe, accusing them of abetting what he referred to as a "massacre" in Gaza. 

The Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, Iran's largest and most powerful proxy, has recently intensified its conflict with Israel, which was triggered after the October 7 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas, the Lebanese proxy joining the bombardment of Iran's archenemy. Rising numbers of drones and missiles are being launched towards Israeli territory with mass fires being ignited across northern Israel. The conflict in the north has left 100,000 Israelis displaced and similar numbers displaced from southern Lebanon.

In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Wednesday morning that Israel is "prepared for an extremely powerful action in the north" to counter the escalating assaults.

Israeli intelligence estimates indicate that Hezbollah has stockpiled approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles in southern Lebanon, all poised to target Israel.