Iran International
Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is increasingly being referred to as the “IRGC’s candidate” in Iran’s presidential elections of June 28. Many believe at least one major faction in the Revolutionary Guard is backing his candidacy.
The clearest reference that the IRGC has a ‘preferred’ candidate was made Wednesday by Vahid Haghanian, a former close aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a statement published Wednesday.
Tasnim news website affiliated with the IRGC on Tuesday attacked Haghanian on for declaring his candidacy and said he lacked the required qualifications. It also alleged that Haghanian’s campaign was focused on the false claim that Khamenei’s office supported his candidacy.
Without directly naming Tasnim, Haghanian, who claims his decision to run was personal, has stated that the "desperate attempts" to discredit him stem from the IRGC-affiliated media's "fear" that their preferred candidate would be defeated.
Haghanian’s quarrel with Tasnim revealed that Ghalibaf is the candidate supported by the IRGC, the UK-based Iranian political analyst Shahir Shahidsaless maintained in a tweet on Wednesday.
“Therefore, it is conceivable that Ghalibaf broke his promise (that he would not run for president if he won the parliament’s speakership last month) and that his last-minute registration resulted from the IRGC’s insistence [on his candidacy],” he added.
In his statement, Haghanian pledged to "re-direct" the role of military-affiliated media outlets that benefit from its budget, preventing them from intervening in politics. He emphasized that the interference of the military in politics was prohibited by both the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the law.
In recent months, the IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency and Javan newspaper have repeatedly defended Ghalibaf against political rivals who have demanded answers to allegations of corruption against him and his family.
In a live TV program a few days after the Parliamentary elections of March 1, ultra-hardliner lawmaker Hamid Rasaei accused Tasnim and Javan newspaper of being at Ghalibaf’s service.
Tasnim’s promotion of Ghalibaf against the Paydari Party hardliners in the newly elected parliament was expressed by calling his win the vote for speakership “lawmakers’ No to Destruction”.
Ahead of the parliament’s presidium elections in April 2022, Javan had accused Ghalibaf’s opponents of “cowardly” attempt to destroy his reputation following a scandal that came to be known as Layette Gate.
Radical right-wingers’ attacks on Ghalibaf have intensified on social media since his last-minute announcement, only a few days after being voted as speaker of the new parliament, that he was running for presidency.
Ali-Akbar Raefipour, an ultra-hardliner who led one of the three major election coalitions within the Principlist camp during the March parliamentary elections in Tehran, is at the forefront of the attacks against Ghalibaf.
Without directly naming Raefipour but providing obvious clues for all to understand, an editorial Thursday, June 6, in the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper accused Raefipour and his supporters of “destruction with abuse and slander”.
“This group’s activities in the parliamentary elections of March were of the same nature. Instead of political vitality, they created division and gloom among hezbollahis (revolutionaries),” the editorial said. “It’s not clear why no one is taking action against them despite numerous violations and putrefying the election atmosphere,” Javan wrote.
Raefipour, who heads the Masaf Institute—a cultural entity with charity status—has been accused of misusing over half a million dollars of donors' money for payments to other organizations, which then funneled the funds back to him, his family members, and his allies.
Raefipour and his supporters, who recently formed the political group Jebhe-ye Sobh-e Iran (Iran Morning Front), call themselves "revolutionaries."
Ghalibaf’s popularity among conservatives has alarmingly declined. He came fourth in the parliamentary elections of March 1 in Tehran with 400,000 votes, one-third of his votes in 2020. He was behind three radical right-wingers including Amir-Hossein Sabeti, a young ultra-hardliner TV presenter with scarce political experience. .
Ghalibaf and his supporters are often referred to as ‘Neo-Principlists’. This refers to his call for reforms in the outlook and methods of Khamenei’s hardline supporters to set himself apart from others, and to build himself a support base among the younger generation of hardliners after his defeat in the presidential elections of 2017.
The controversial politician, largely marginalized by the ruling establishment for almost a decade, has submitted his candidacy for the forthcoming snap presidential elections, pending approval from the Guardian Council.
Aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Guardian Council prohibited Ahmadinejad from participating in both the 2017 and 2021 presidential contests. After his disqualification in 2017, the polarizing figure became a prominent detractor of the governing elite, openly criticizing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Ahmadinejad's show of force on Thursday could be an attempt to demonstrate his popularity among ordinary Iranians to the ruling establishment that commentators say will not allow him to run for the presidency.
In an act of defiance against the Guardian Council's previous disqualification, Ahmadinejad met his supporters as they showered him with compliments and fervently declared him their chosen president.
The Guardian Council will announce the approved candidates next week, with the election scheduled for June 28. Candidates who have been approved will have the opportunity to campaign in the two weeks prior to the election. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, a run-off election will be held on July 5.
After two years of relative silence, which some attribute to his reinstated membership in the Expediency Council by the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad emerged from obscurity to offer commentary on a promising future for Iranians following President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash last month.
According to political commentator Jaber Rajabi, speaking on an Iran International panel show, the Supreme Leader's decision to renew Ahmadinejad's membership in the Expediency Council is perceived as an attempt to appease him to some extent, although genuine trust in him is lacking.
“When queried about his decision to retain Ahmadinejad within the council, Khamenei reportedly likened it to housing a man whose arm has been removed, within a mosque to prevent the recurring theft of footwear,” Rajabi said on Chashm Andaz panel show.
Ahmadinejad, known for his outspokenness regarding the regime's corruption and covert activities, notably acknowledged that Israel's Mossad stole significant documents about Iran's nuclear endeavors from within the country.
In 2021, Ahmadinejad said the highest-ranking Iranian intelligence official in charge of countering Israeli spies in Iran was himself an agent of Israel.
In a tweet on Tuesday, prominent reformist commentator Abbas Abdi asserted that this is the first time since 1981 that clerics are not strongly represented among the registered candidates. Despite having held high positions and wield influence in the Islamic Republic, clerics now feel they have no chance of being elected.
Only three of the Islamic Republic’s eight presidents in over four decades -- Abolhassan Bani Sadr (1980-1981), Mohammad-Ali Rajai (August 1981) and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2009) -- were non-clerics. This means that in 45 years clerics occupied the presidential seat for more than 35 years.
Bani Sadr was impeached and deposed by the clerical establishment. Rajai was assassinated along with his prime minister in a bombing 28 days after being elected. Ahmadinejad who was once Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s desired president, however, fell from his favor during his second term of presidency. He was not allowed to stand in 2017 and 2021 and is very unlikely to be approved this time.
Abdi’s inference is apparently based on the predictions of the most likely candidates to be approved. Only one cleric, former minister of justice and interior Mostafa Pourmohammadi, stands out among the registered candidates. Pourmohammadi does not seem to be among the top contenders or have a considerable chance of winning against his non-clerical rivals, even if approved by the 12-member, non-elected watchdog, the Guardian Council.
The government of the late President Ebrahim Raisi, however, is strongly represented among the candidates with two vice-presidents and three ministers. Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazrpash, Minister of Cooperatives, Labour and Social Welfare Sowlat Mortazavi, Vice-President and Head of the Planning and Budget Organization Davoud Manzour, Vice-President and Chief of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, and Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Mohammad-Mehdi Esmaili have registered to run.
Acting President Mohammad Mokhber was widely believed to aspire to the presidency, but to everyone's surprise, he did not register. It is now believed that he is eyeing the vice-presidency in the next government.
All government candidates claim they will continue Raisi’s path if elected.
The Mayor of Tehran, Alireza Zakani, also sits in cabinet sessions while hardliner politician and candidate Saeed Jalili who does not hold any official position in the government, is believed to wield great influence in it.
On Tuesday, Gholam-Hossein Esmaili, Raisi’s Chief of Staff, asserted on a live television program that the government does not support any specific candidate. However, he urged "consensus" among those registered to run "so that a president with a high number of votes is elected."
Among the government-aligned candidates, Bazrpash, 44, is the most controversial yet widely believed to be the most likely to succeed if approved.
Bazrpash hails from populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s circle of ‘young advisers’ when the former president was the mayor of the capital prior to 2005. He was given several high positions in Ahmadinejad’s government including chief of the National Youth Organization.
Bazrpash was voted by lawmakers in 2020 as chief of the State Audit Organization but some lawmakers who challenged his qualification for the position argued that he was inexperienced for such a high position and had not served a minimum of twenty years in government positions as required.
Rumors circulated that Bazrpash was interrogated about his last-minute change of plans and decision not to board the same helicopter as President Raisi, even before Raisi's body was recovered from the crash site last month.
On May 22, journalist Fariborz Kalantari claimed that Bazrpash and his team had already held a meeting to plan his candidacy in the June 28 elections to take Raisi’s place.
After his last-minute registration, Bazrpash showed a thick volume to reporters which he claimed was the comprehensive plan of his government. Many on social media say he could not have possibly written the plan in the less than two weeks he had to register as a candidate.
Bazrpash has also been accused of plagiarism in his Ph.D. thesis and financial corruption which rivals can use against him in election debates.
Many believe that if approved, all government officials, apparently except Esmaili, will eventually either withdraw from the race in favor of a ‘chosen’ one, or appear in a ‘supporting role’ to aid the block’s top candidate against Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili or reformist candidates if any of them is approved.
“It makes no difference who wins. They make promises before getting endorsed as president but after that [their path] is obeyance of the [Supreme] Leader. We reject the entirety of this system,” one of Iran International TV’s audience said in a voice message.