Iran International
Since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s return to public view after a few weeks of silence, speculation has been swirling on Persian social media that he and his inner circle may punish those seen as prematurely positioning themselves for his succession.
During and after the 12-day Iran–Israel war, several Iranian and international outlets reported that former President Hassan Rouhani and Hassan Khomeini—the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader—had joined forces to influence the succession process.
Some US media also revived earlier reports of a three-member committee within the Assembly of Experts, tasked with selecting the next supreme leader.
Senior clerics and analysts noted a key obstacle: although Iran’s Constitution does not require the leader to be a descendant of the Prophet (a sayyed), it is widely believed that a white-turbaned cleric like Rouhani would struggle to gain legitimacy.
Sayyeds, including Khomeini, wear black turbans as a symbol of their lineage.
A premature move in Qom?
In this scenario, Rouhani’s role would mirror that of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who helped groom Khamenei to succeed Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s founding leader.
But the theory lacks evidence.
What reportedly occurred was a trip by Rouhani and Khomeini to Qom, where they consulted senior clerics including Nouri Hamadani and Makarem Shirazi. Anecdotal accounts from clerics and political veterans suggest that this move—viewed as premature—deeply angered Khamenei.
On X and other platforms, many users argue that Khamenei will seek revenge against those they label the main perpetrators: Iran’s moderates and reformists.
“The reformists … believed Israel would carry out the assassinations of officials, creating space for their return,” activist Arashk Rajabpour posted on X.
“But Trump’s ceasefire left the project unfinished … it’s unlikely that those who pushed this project forward won’t face consequences.”
Revenge and the politics of martyrdom
Such accusations echo a recent Iran International report citing Khamenei’s military adviser Rahim Safavi, who allegedly claimed Israel attempted to orchestrate a coup during the war.
The report suggested that while Rouhani and Khomeini acted on one front, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and several IRGC commanders operated on another—each seeking to steer the West toward accepting a controlled internal transition which would empower their respective camps.
They now stand accused of quietly celebrating Israel’s killing of IRGC commanders as political openings.
Saving the regime, not the people?
The concept of revenge carries deep resonance in Shi'ite culture. In Ta'ziyeh, the traditional passion play, vengeance for the martyrdom of the third Shiite Imam is a central theme.
Ironically, the alleged conspirators are now being condemned by some dissident Iranians for trying to rescue the very system they once criticized.
“Hassan Rouhani’s name is once again on people’s lips,” monarchist activist Ashkan Vahdat posted on X, “not to save the people, but to save the regime.”
“With a seemingly moderate face and a reassuring smile, they want to frighten the public with the threat of foreign enemies, to once again manufacture a threat and say, Take refuge in us,” he added.
