Iranian Insider Boasts About Nuke and Missile Capability

In an interview with The Washington Post on Tuesday, Zeine said Molly Phee, the State Department’s top official for African affairs, issued the threat during spring negotiations aimed at extending the presence of US forces in Niger.

According to him, the confrontation led to the “rupture” of military relations between the United States and Niger, previously considered a key ally in West Africa.

Le Monde reported earlier this month that despite international pressures, the military government of Niger still plans to proceed with the sale of hundreds of tons of refined uranium, or "yellowcake," to Iran.

Zeine, who met with President Ebrahim Raisi and other top Iranian officials in Tehran in January, stated that “absolutely nothing” has been signed with Iran, adding that if a deal had been inked, it would have “not been under the table … but in front of cameras.”

The strain in relations was exacerbated when Niamey announced the mid-March termination of its military cooperation with the US, shortly after a US delegation visit.

The US had been heavily involved in counter-terrorism operations in Niger, operating a major drone base near Agadez city. Following the cessation of cooperation, the US agreed in April to withdraw more than 1,000 American personnel, with ongoing discussions regarding the terms.

Relations between Niger and Western nations have deteriorated sinceast year’s July coup that ousted elected president Mohamed Bazoum. Post-coup, the junta expelled French troops and enhanced ties with Russia, which has since provided military instructors and equipment.

International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi in London on Tuesday was quoted by two major newspapers as being both concerned and hopeful regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

The contradiction was apparently due to the different emphasis the Financial Times and Guardian put on Grossi’s separate remarks to each publication. The Guardian emphasized Grossi’s statement that loose talk in Tehran “is very worrying and needs to stop”. However, the FT highlighted Grossi’s optimism that Iran has shown willingness to engage in “serious dialogue” with the IAEA.

Both takeaways from Grossi’s remarks could be equally valid: his optimism after a trip to Iran last week and the continuing loose talk in Tehran by senior officials for opting to build nuclear weapons. However, at this juncture, Grossi’s concerns may be more justified than his expressed optimism.

In recent weeks three Iranian officials have hinted or openly threatened to reverse nuclear doctrine if Iran’s nuclear installations or the Islamic Republic regime are threatened. The latest statement came on Sunday, when senior foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated the threat. Kamal Kharrazi said that the Islamic Republic would be left with no option but to alter its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatened its nuclear facilities or its existence.

Kharrazi stated that Iran does "not possess nuclear weapons, and there is a fatwa from the leader regarding this matter. But what should you do if the enemy threatens you? You will inevitably have to make changes to your doctrine."

The reason for Grossi’s optimism, however, is less clear, except what he took away during his recent visit to Tehran. Grossi told FT that IAEA’s relations with the Islamic Republic “could be entering a different phase,” apparently based on signals he received when he met with Iran’s atomic chief Mohammad Eslami. But Tehran has been making promises to the IAEA and Western diplomats for two decades, while its nuclear program has reached the weapons development threshold.

Grossi, however, appears to be highly alarmed by threatening remarks of Iranian officials. He told the Guardian, “Loose talk about nuclear weapons is extremely serious for me. And I think it should stop. We are moving closer to a situation where there is a big, huge question mark about what they are doing and why they are doing it.”

Last March, during a visit to Tehran to resolve disputes about severe restrictions on IAEA’s vital monitoring activities, he reached a written agreement with Tehran, but more than a year later nothing has been implemented.

In fact, in September 2023, Tehran withdrew designations of several inspectors assigned to conduct verification activities in Iran under the Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement. Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Eslami, justified Tehran's decision by claiming that those expelled had a history of "extremist political behavior".

Also, in an interview with PBS on March 29, Grossi had expressed concern over Iran's advancements in its nuclear program alongside restrictions placed on IAEA monitoring activities. He emphasized that without full Iranian cooperation, the agency cannot verify that its program is peaceful. The lack of visibility would be a major setback, similar to the situation during the late 1980s and 90s in Iraq, he explained.

“[President] Biden and [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said in a press briefing.

He made the remarks in reaction to Sunday comments by Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei, that the Islamic Republic would be left with no option but to alter its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatened its nuclear facilities or its existence.

“We continue to assess, though, that Iran is not taking any key activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device,” Patel told Iran International correspondent Samira Gharaei.

Kharazi said on Sunday that Iran does "not possess nuclear weapons, and there is a fatwa from the leader regarding this matter. But what should you do if the enemy threatens you? You will inevitably have to make changes to your doctrine."

Asked if these comments were a concern for the United States, Patel said, “We don't believe that the Supreme Leader has yet made a decision to resume the (nuclear) weaponization program that we judge Iran suspended or stopped at the end of 2003.”

When asked about the Biden administration's strategy toward a "nuclear threshold state" like Iran in the absence of ongoing negotiations, Patel told Iran International, "We have ways of communicating with Iran when it's in our interest, I'm not going to comment on that."

In a Monday press conference in Tehran, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman suggested that Kharrazi's remarks were not the official position of the Islamic Republic, and that Tehran's nuclear doctrine has not changed.

"Iran's official position on Weapons of Mass Destruction has been repeatedly declared by high-ranking Iranian officials, and there has been no change in Iran's nuclear doctrine," Nasser Kanaani told reporters in a briefing held on the sidelines of Tehran International Book Fair, citing a fatwa by Ali Khamenei on the prohibition of the production and use of nuclear weapons as the basis for Iran's position.

However, the fatwa Iranian officials refer to is not an irrevocable principle. Islamic fatwas can change or be reversed at a moment’s notice, experts have pointed out. Also, the alleged Khamenei fatwa is not actually a religious order, it is part of a statement he submitted to an international conference more than a decade ago.

Khamenei may invoke the principle of expediency to overrule his “anti-Nuclear” fatwa. The principle of expediency, as decreed by the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khomeini in January 1988, stipulates that the Supreme Leader may even violate the fundamental tenets of the Islamic faith in order to preserve “the Islamic Regime” as the preservation of the Islamic Regime supersedes all else.

Kharrazi on Sunday also raised the issue of Israel’s alleged nuclear arsenal and called for the Jewish state’s nuclear disarmament. “If Israel threatens other counties, they cannot remain silent,” he retorted.

Last week, Kharrazi had stated, “If they dare to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, our level of deterrence will change. We have experienced deterrence at the conventional level so far. If they intend to strike Iran's nuclear capabilities, naturally, it could lead to a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine.”

In recent weeks, Iran has evoked the option of using the nuclear option as a deterrent against the possibility of an Israeli strike against its atomic facilities, amid a new reality in the Middle East after the October 7 Hamas attack.

On Friday, Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani claimed Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon.

He conveyed to the Rouydad 24 website his belief that Iran's decision to risk attacking Israel in April stemmed from its possession of nuclear weapons.

Ali-Akbar Salehi, who was foreign minister more than a decade ago and is still a key foreign policy voice in the Iranian government, also said last month that Iran has everything it needed to build a nuclear bomb, as tensions rose with Israel amid the Gaza war.

In a televised interview in April, Salehi, was asked if Iran has achieved the capability of developing a nuclear bomb. Avoiding a direct answer he stated, "We have [crossed] all the thresholds of nuclear science and technology.”

Salehi’s statement was preceded by a declaration from a Revolutionary Guard general. In the midst of tensions between the Islamic Republic and Israel, Ahmad Haghtalab, the IRGC commander of the Guard for the Protection and Security of Nuclear Facilities, announced on April 19 that if Israel intends to "use the threat of attacking our nuclear facilities as a tool to pressure Iran, a revision of the nuclear doctrine and policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a shift from previously stated considerations is conceivable and likely."

Since early 2021, when the Biden administration opted for negotiations to restore the Obama-era JCPOA agreement, Iran has vastly expanded its uranium enrichment efforts and is now believed to have amassed enough fissile material for 3-5 nuclear warheads.

In a letter to the Guardian Council, he asserted that the Raisi Administration "neither has the capability to withdraw from the JCPOA nor the will to revive it."

Rouhani also lamented that the opportunity for reviving the JCPOA at the end of his term was thwarted by "the parliament's sabotage and the support of the Guardian Council."

President Ebrahim Raisi has recently echoed sentiments against expanding the nuclear deal by Rouhani, saying “Some wanted to announce in the country that we must reduce the shadow of war, negotiate on our missiles and military capabilities, and put JCPOA 2 and 3 on the table. However, the leadership said, 'What happened to JCPOA 1 that you want to put 2 and 3 on the table, and missiles are not negotiable."

The JCPOA, achieved in Vienna on July 14, 2015, involves Iran and major world powers including the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reduce its nuclear capabilities in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.

However, the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 under President Donald Trump and the subsequent imposition of sanctions strained relations and crippled Iran’s economy.

Despite international scrutiny and ongoing diplomatic efforts, Iran has continued to enrich uranium up to 60-percent purity, a level that many outside observers argue has potential military applications.

On Tuesday, Rafael Grossi, the chief of the United Nations atomic watchdog, criticized Tehran for its "completely unsatisfactory" cooperation after his recent visit to Iran. During his trip, he had pressed Iranian leaders to implement "concrete" steps to resolve issues surrounding their nuclear program.

It came weeks after Grossi said Iran was dangerously close to making nuclear weapons.

Shariatmadari’s piece pushed for "the suspension of all Iran’s commitments under UN Security Council resolutions, including those concerning the nuclear dossier, and the expulsion of IAEA inspectors." His statement comes amid heightened rhetoric following the IAEA chief’s recent visit to Iran, which seems to have emboldened Iranian officials’ nuclear ambitions.

“This is the undeniable and legal right of our country. Do not trample on this undeniable right,” said Shariatmadari.

Meanwhile, Kamal Kharrazi, the Supreme Leader’s foreign policy advisor and former Iranian foreign minister, threatened a shift to nuclear deterrence if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities. The statement has been met with minimal reaction from the international community, with the US State Department merely labeling it "irresponsible."

“We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran's existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” Kharrazi said.

During his visit, Grossi noted that although there was “no specific timeframe or deadline” for Iran to address its nuclear issues, he underscored the expectation for Iran to act quickly.

The escalatory dialogue follows the February 2024 announcement by former Iranian Atomic Energy Chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, who claimed Iran’s readiness to quickly produce sufficient fissile material for nuclear armament.

Grossi, recently warned that Iran is alarmingly close to achieving nuclear weapons capability, suggesting that the development of a nuclear bomb could be weeks away, should Khamenei decide to proceed.