With an approaching run-off election to fill the final 32 parliamentary seats, and three weeks until the new Iranian parliament convenes, a fierce contest ensues among conservatives for the coveted Speaker's position.
Like most other developments in Tehran, the battle over the Speaker's seat is seen as a crucial aspect of the broader preparation for the post-Khamenei era. Yet, no one knows for sure why Iranian conservatives are so confident that Khamenei's days are numbered.
On one hand, conservative politicians vie fiercely for leadership, yet individual Iranians show apathy towards Majles leadership, evident in their lack of participation in the March 1 election, indicating their distrust in the system. However, the outcome is crucial for Ali Khamenei, who risks losing control if a dissenting figure like ultra hardliner Hamid Rasaei replaces incumbent Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is a relative of the Supreme Leader.
Among the candidates for the seat, Ghalibaf, Paydari Party leaders Morteza Agha-Tehrani and Sadeq Mahsouli, as well as outspoken Hamid Rasaei have been pushing their own campaign for the election of the Speaker in the Majles (parliament)
Paysari and Rasaei's camp, a radical offshoot of Paydari, have revealed that Ghalibaf has been holding meetings with those who have influence the next parliament, promising them posts in the Majles committees and presidium provided that they vote for Ghalibaf as the Speaker.
Social media users have said that Rasaei's statements are part of his campaign to win the Speaker's seat. This comes while some conservatives have said they are adamant to reject Rasaei's credential and bar him from continuing his career as a member of the p[parliament.
On the other hand, Entekhab News in Tehran has quoted Rasaei as promising free housing, cars and offices to new lawmakers, if he is elected to be the Speaker of the Majles. Critics argue Rasaei and his allies prioritize personal gain over voters' interests.
The challenging situation created by the ultra-hardliners dominating the new parliament is the making of Khamenei’s engineered elections, in which his Guardian Council barred hundreds of ‘reformists’ and traditional conservatives from running as candidates.
While the competition is fierce, Gholamreza Nouri Ghezelcheh, the chairman of the independent MPs' faction at the outgoing parliament has pointed out that "support for Ghalibaf's speakership will come from outside the Majles," meaning that similar to the previous round in 2020, whatever the internal mood, Khamenei will exercise his unquestionable authority to push his relative and confidant Ghalibaf into the Speaker's seat.
Khamenei is likely to lose his grip on the legislative body, if Ghalibaf is replaced by someone like Rasaei who has proven that he has no respect for Khamenei's leadership. He did not obey Khamenei when the Supreme Leader called on new MPs to stop infighting and continued levelling accusations on Ghalibaf immediately after the March election.
According to conservative politician Hamid Reza Taraqqi, "Ghalibaf's position in both the current and upcoming parliaments is precarious. He lacks sufficient support among lawmakers and faces numerous opponents in the new Majles."
Taraqqi believes Ghalibaf is unlikely to garner support from more than 80 of the 290 representatives in the next Majles. However, like Ghezelcheh, Taraqqi suggests that support for Ghalibaf may come from outside the Majles, possibly from Khamenei's household.
From Khamenei's perspective, this presents a lose-lose scenario. If Ghalibaf secures the post, as in the current Majles, he's unlikely to be an effective Speaker, forcing Khamenei into open intervention in legislative affairs, inviting criticism. On the other hand, if Ghalibaf loses, Khamenei risks being at the mercy of "young revolutionary" lawmakers who may not heed him as readily as the old guard.
“Mr Malley and his colleagues negotiated the release of several Americans last summer and, without explanation, excluded my father. Our family asked why in hell would we leave the one American hostage in Iran on death row defenselessly in the hands of his kidnappers and tormentors; there was zero response,” she said on Tuesday.
“Our family has been disappointed by our State Department officials, particularly the former Iran Envoy Robert Malley, whose tenure has failed to address my father's critical situation for three years,” Sharmahd told lawmakers at the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigation.
Malley was quietly removed from his duties last April as first reported by Iran International, apparently for mishandling restricted information, but the Biden administration has so far refused to disclose any details.
A 69-year-old California resident, Jamsjid Sharmahd was abducted by Iranian agents in 2020 while visiting the United Arab Emirates. He was sentenced to death by the Iranian judiciary on charges of endangering national security in February 2023, a verdict that was upheld by the Supreme Court of Iran.
The defendant was convicted of leading a pro-monarchist group known as Tondar that was responsible for a deadly bombing incident that occurred in 2008 at a religious center in Shiraz, killing 14 and injuring 215 others. For the bombing, however, suspects had already been arrested and convicted years before.
The charges are, however, denied by Sharmahd and his family, and Iran provides no evidence to back up its accusations. Amnesty International has blasted the trial as a sham.
“When the Islamic regime showcased the international kidnapping of an American by parading my father on their National TV blindfolded with a swollen face forced to confessions, there was zero response from the US,” Sharmahd told the House subcommittee.
In an interview with Iran International on Tuesday, Sharmahd blamed the State Department’s Iran team for enabling the Iranian regime after last year saw five hostages released for a total of $6bn in released Iranian funds from South Korea. “The regime is putting price tags on people’s lives,” she told Iran International host Fardad Farahzad.
Sharmahd claimed that the regime, “instead of asking the [western] governments directly, talks to the families of hostages and tells them what they want, so they don't have to admit officially they're hostage takers.”
She added, “For my father's release, they sought talks with German authorities, the release of Asadollah Assadi [an Iranian diplomat convicted of terrorism], and billions of dollars.” In March, Iran demanded $2.5 billion for his release.
Since coming to power, the Biden administration has been accused of enabling the Iranian regime in its emboldened hostage taking policy which has seen the likes of European diplomats taken hostage on false allegations. Its soft approach has also seen Iran only enhance nuclear enrichment in the face of international sanctions and maritime seizures continue, as the US refuses to take direct action against the regime.
Khamenei and his loyalists in the Iranian regime have seen victory in pro-Hamas protests in American universities, and the Supreme Leader made sure to highlight this to his audience.
“Despite the extensive efforts of Zionists and their American and European supporters, the issue of Gaza remains the top global concern. Protests against the crimes of the Zionist regime in American universities and their expansion to European universities are signs of the continued sensitivity of public opinion worldwide to the Gaza issue,” Iran’s authoritarian ruler said.
Khamenei has invested 35 years of his rule to relentlessly campaign against Israel, the United States and Western influence, not only in the Middle East but also in distant places in Africa and Latin America.
In the process, energy-rich Iran has become isolated and cut-off from the global economy, gradually losing its economic viability, with a shrinking GDP, high inflation and dependence on China and Russia.
With heavy political and military investment on Hamas and other militant groups in the region, Khamenei seems desperate to showcase any sign of anti-Israeli and anti-Western public opinion at home and abroad as a sign of vindication for his worldview.
“The brutal and merciless behavior of the rabid Zionist dog proved the righteousness of the Islamic Republic's position and the Iranian people, and the massacre of thirty-some thousand people, half of whom are women and children, demonstrated the evil nature of the Zionist regime and the perpetual righteousness of Iran to the whole world,” Khamenei stated.
Claiming repression against protesters on US campuses, Khamenei said, "This issue has shown to everyone that America is complicit in the crime and an accomplice to the unforgivable sin of the massacre of the people of Gaza by the Zionists, and some of their seemingly sympathetic words are lies; therefore, the position of the Islamic Republic, which cannot be optimistic about the US government and trust it, has been proven."
Khamenei feels insecure after years of anti-regime protests by ordinary Iranians, whose social freedoms are being curtailed by Islamic restrictions and their economic status degraded by high inflation and lack of real jobs. He is most likely aware that especially the younger generation cares little about his anti-West ideology and yearns for living like their peers in free and prosperous societies.
Most protesters belong to Generation Z, ranging from teenagers to those in their early 20s. Hundreds of them have been killed by security forces during rounds of protests since 2017. Despite relentless propaganda by the government and dozens of state and religious institutions, there have been clear indications that many in Iran oppose the regime’s anti-Israeli and anti-Western ideology. From chants during protests and football matches, to graffities popping up on the walls and Israeli flags appearing in Tehran, some Iranians let the government know what they think about sacrificing their well-being to support militant Palestinians.
However, Khamenei insists on having no diplomatic and economic relations with the United States and continuing to spend billions of dollars arming regional militant proxy groups with the stated goal of driving the US out of the Middle East and “wiping Israel off the map.”