Senior visiting fellow, George Mason University
In recent years, Iranian authorities have often announced significant discoveries of oil and gas reserves, but, in reality, the government has faced tremendous challenges – often self-inflicted – in actually extracting these resources.
In February 2017 authorities revealed the presence of two billion barrels of shale oil reserves in the western province of Lorestan. To try and ascertain the feasibility of extraction and develop efficient technologies, the governmental National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) collaborated with universities on a pilot project. This effort was likely meant to showcase Iran's dedication to expand its energy sources.
The NIOC’s Exploration Manager Mehdi Fakour later alleged that ten locations containing shale oil resources had been found and confirmed. Confident in the ability of the NIOC’s extraction model, Fakour told the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency that over 2.5 billion barrels equivalent of oil were added to Iran's reserves through new discoveries in 1402.
Though the discovery of shale oil reserves in Lorestan province could offer significant opportunities for Iran's energy sector, it also presents substantial obstacles for Tehran.
Iran’s vast challenges
Iran encounters numerous challenges in its quest for shale oil production. Obtaining the necessary technological expertise stands out as a major hurdle. While the current pilot project seeks to address this issue, Iran must also pursue technology transfer from more experienced nations to fully capitalize on its resources. Moreover, the economic feasibility of shale oil production is uncertain, underscoring the need for a thorough analysis of both technical capabilities and economic factors.
International sanctions have intensified Iran's pre-existing challenges in developing its oil sector, especially concerning its shale oil deposits. The regime’s ongoing proxy conflict with Israel has not only contributed to regional volatility and instability but has also impeded Iran's ability to attract international investment and technology from countries like Israel and the US.
Additionally, a significant challenge stems from the scarcity of water, which is crucial for shale oil production. To address this issue, Iran must explore water-saving technology and techniques. This entails investing in strategies to conserve water and adopting technology for recycling and reusing water resources throughout the extraction process.
Does Tehran see major potential in shale oil?
The discovery of shale oil presents a tremendous opportunity – if Tehran genuinely wants to utilize its energy resources to foster prosperity and enhance its global influence. This finding could enable the country to diversify its energy portfolio and diminish its dependence on traditional oil supplies.
Successfully exploiting shale oil deposits could increase Iran's oil production capacity, thereby compensating for declines resulting from depletion and mismanagement of existing reserves and the impact of sanctions. Increased production through successful shale oil exports could significantly bolster economic development. Exploiting these assets can enhance Iran's energy security by reducing its reliance on imported oil and gas.
Iran’s exaggerated claims and technical limitations
It’s important to note that Iran's actual claim of discovering significant shale oil deposits in Lorestan lacks any independent validation.
That coupled with the Iranian authorities’ long history of exaggerating energy reserves, casts a real shadow on the potential of any potential find in Lorestan.
So far, the NIOC’s ongoing pilot study has encountered numerous hindrances, including technological restrictions, economic limitations, and geopolitical complexities.
Unlocking Iran’s shale oil reserves would require Tehran to face and overcome these major roadblocks, and given the existing multi-layered constraints – skepticism is warranted.
Whether Iran’s government is capable of effectively tapping into Lorestan’s shale oil deposits, improving its people's well-being, remains to be anyone’s guess at this stage.
The Mayor, hardliner Alireza Zakani, along with other officials, say the construction of a mosque at Gheytarieh Park is in response to "popular demand" for providing places of worship for park users. The officials have also argued that the mosque would not significantly limit the park's space – nor would it harm its several-hundred-year-old trees.
Critics however, say there are already numerous mosques near the park, frequented by only a few worshippers during prayers. Some religious figures and activists have vehemently opposed Mayor Zakani's plans, particularly his intention to build mosques in all of the capital's parks.
“Building mosques is a community act of faith, not a municipal duty … Building parks, building highways, developing urban systems, optimizing roads, etc., are the duties of the municipality, which, praised be God, it does awfully little for,” Seyed Saeed Lavasani, a former Friday prayer Imam of Lavasan in northern Tehran tweeted on X.
One of the reasons cited by critics for the mayor’s insistence that mosques need to be built in parks stands out from the rest: a behind-the-scenes agreement between the mayor and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and other authorities to expand the network of mosques, as well as the Basij militia bases stationed at them, across the capital.
People opposed to construction of the mosque at Gheytarieh Park measure the girth of the trees that have to be felled.
The Basij paramilitary force, which operates under IRGC command, has always been at the forefront in suppressing anti-government protests, alongside other security forces.
Didban-e Iran news website in an article entitled “Demystification of Construction of a Mosque at Gheytarieh Park of Tehran” contended that the mayor’s zeal in building mosques drives from an agreement with the IRGC to provide more bases for housing Basij forces.
Instead of paying attention to the poor southern areas of the city, the Mayor of Tehran has begun plans to expand the network of mosques in the northern areas of the capital where public discontent is at its greatest,” the article read.
While arguing that construction of a mosque in Gheytarieh park without the consent of the public would backfire and make them hate Islam – and mosques as its most important symbol – Abolfazl Najafi-Tehrani, a cleric and social media activist, alleged that Zakani’s real plan is “to build Basij bases under the guise of the mosque”.
Mosques have played an important role in the security structure of the country since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Many mosques across the country have previously housed the paramilitary Basij militia.
The militia, which recruited civilian volunteers from mosques to fight in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) and acted as neighborhood police, was established by the order of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, soon after the Revolution.
Until their dissolution in 1991, committees of the Islamic Revolution, also established in 1979 by Khomeini’s order, were also often stationed at mosques. Until their dissolution in 1991, they also took on the role of police and secret service in conjunction with security forces including the Revolutionary Guards, police, intelligence ministry, and Basij.
In the past few years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards officials, particularly Brigadier General Hasan Hassanzadeh – commander of Mohammad Rasulullah Corps in Tehran Province – have often spoken of the implementation of a plan to “create Islamic neighborhoods” centered around mosques. In July 2023, Hassanzadeh said the plan, which was projected in 2017, had been implemented in 700 of the capital’s neighborhoods.
“Mosques and Basij Resistance bases should play a greater role in the cohesion of neighborhoods. The function of a mosque should not be confined to purely religious activities and their focus must include cultural and social functions alongside religious and devotional ceremonies,” he said.
Hassanzadeh has met with the mayor of Tehran several times in the past couple of years to discuss the municipality’s cooperation with the Basij.
In November 2021, addressing the members of Tehran City Council, Hassanzadeh said the Basij had 2,500 bases in Tehran and underlined the importance of “Islamic neighborhoods” and utilizing the “astonishing potentials of the Basij”.
In the same speech, he complimented Zakani, a former head of the Student Basij in universities, as “the most Basiji mayor of Tehran since the Revolution”.
The Security Council held an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the attack, which Israel has not officially taken responsibility for.
The strike on Monday - that Iran said killed two of its IRGC Quds Force generals and five other officers of the extra-territorial unit - marked one of the most significant attacks yet on Iranian interests in Syria, where Israel has stepped up a long-running campaign against Iran.
"We will not hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation - again, an attack in which we had no involvement or advanced knowledge - to resume their attacks on U.S. personnel," said deputy US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood.
Attacks by Iran-backed proxies against US troops based in Iraq and Syria stopped in February after Washington retaliated for the killing of three US troops in Jordan with dozens of airstrikes on targets in Syria and Iraq linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and militias that it supports.
Wood also slammed the aggressive tactics used by Iran and its proxies. "The United States has repeatedly warned Iran not to take advantage of the situation to escalate its longstanding proxy war against Israel and other actors," he told the Security Council.
Iran has ignored that warning. Terrorists and other armed groups, some backed by the Syrian regime and Iran, have used Syrian territory to plot and launch attacks on Israel and U.S. facilities and personnel.
Iran told the 15-member Security Council that it reserves the right "to take a decisive response" to the attack, accusing Israel of violating the founding UN Charter, international law, and the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises.
"The United States is responsible for all crimes committed by the Israeli regime," said Iran's deputy UN Ambassador Zahra Ershadi, accusing the US of trying to destabilize Syria and the region and calling it out for supporting Israel in its war with Palestinian militants Hamas. She added that Israel is seeking to escalate tensions in the region while avoiding full responsibility for its actions.
Ershadi called on the Security Council to condemn the attack on Iran's diplomatic premises in Damascus. Wood said that Washington does not yet have confirmation of the status of the building that was struck in Damascus.
"Any confirmed attack on property that was in fact a diplomatic facility would be of concern to the United States," he said. "Diplomatic missions and their property, as well as official diplomatic residences must be protected, even and especially in times of armed conflict."
Iran has fully supported Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel and has vowed to continue assisting the “Resistance Front”, until the destruction of the Jewish state. Iran’s Resistance Front is a collection of armed and militant groups in the region, stretching from Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres earlier on Tuesday condemned the attack in Damascus, calling on "all concerned to exercise utmost restraint and avoid further escalation," UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said in a statement.
"He cautions that any miscalculation could lead to broader conflict in an already volatile region, with devastating consequences for civilians who are already seeing unprecedented suffering in Syria, Lebanon, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, and the broader Middle East," said Dujarric.
However, Monday’s airstrike coincided with a public holiday for Iranian officials, who commemorate the death anniversary of the first Shiite Islamic Imam, and the embassy should have been closed. The IRGC officers present on the premises were not diplomats and were reportedly holding a military meeting.
Although Israel has not taken responsibility for the strike, Iran International sources say it was an Israeli operation.
With reporting by Reuters
Zeraati was stabbed outside his residence in Wimbledon, south London, on March 29, and sustained injuries to his leg. He was discharged from hospital on Sunday.
According to a statement by the Metropolitan Police, the motive for the assault remains unclear. However, due to prior threats against Iran International journalists, the Metropolitan Police's Counter Terrorism Command is spearheading the investigation. The attack occurred just a few months after a plot by the Iranian regime to kill 2 other Iran International journalists was revealed.
Detectives investigating the stabbing said they have identified three suspects in the case, but did not disclose their identities. Zeraati was approached by two men before being attacked. The assailants then escaped the scene in a blue Mazda 3 driven by a third accomplice. Their getaway vehicle, however, proved to be their undoing. Police located the abandoned car in New Malden and are currently conducting a forensic examination.
Authorities discovered that the suspects, instead of lying low, made a beeline straight for Heathrow Airport and vanished from the UK within a few hours of the attack.
"We've identified three suspects who we believe left the country shortly after the incident," revealed Commander Dominic Murphy, Head of the Met's Counter Terrorism Command.
The investigation, which included extensive CCTV analysis and inquiries, led the detectives to the abandoned vehicle, he added. “Detectives trawled CCTV and made extensive enquiries resulting in the identification and recovery of a vehicle used by the suspects to leave the scene. We have established that after abandoning the vehicle, the suspects travelled to Heathrow Airport and have left the UK. We are now working with international partners to establish further details.”
Commander Murphy said they are still in the early stage of the investigation, stressing that all possibilities are being considered, and no definitive reason for the attack has been established yet.
The incident has understandably caused significant concern “for local people and all those impacted, "Murphy admitted, adding that they have increased police patrols in Wimbledon and other key areas across London.
Many activists and human rights and journalist unions have raised concerns about the incident, calling for action to confront and deter the regime in Tehran from expanding its malign activities.
Activist Masih Alinejad, herself a victim of an assassination plot by Iran, said the attack on Zeraati must be “a wake-up call for the UK.” This attack on Zeraati was a sinister message from the Islamic Republic she said: "If you are a dissident, then you are not safe, no matter how far from Iran's borders you may be, she said in her opinion piece."
Iran International’s journalists have long been a target for the regime for their coverage of Iran, and the platform it provides to critics and human rights activists.
In November 2022, the London Police provided protection to Iran International’s offices, acting upon credible intelligence about real threats against two of its journalists based in London.
In early 2023, the network had to temporarily shut down operations in London and move its broadcasting studios to Washington DC. In September, operations resumed at a new location in London. A man surveilling the previous London office was arrested by the police in February 2023. The Central Criminal Court of England sentenced him in December for gathering information on Iran International's London headquarters to 3.5 years behind bars.