Iranian Hardliner Warns Of Further Fall Of Battered Currency

According to the IRNA state news agency, a "morality police officer" was hospitalized after an attack on Friday evening in Hamedan, allegedly suffering "severe injuries".

On Saturday, in Esfahan Province, another hijab enforcement agent was "assaulted" in Naghsh-e Jahan Square. Several businesses were shut down after the incident which went viral on social media.

Widespread public defiance of hijab underway since 2022 was sparked by the death in morality police custody of Mahsa Amini, who suffered severe head injuries after her arrest for 'improper' wearing of the mandatory hijab. Since then, hundreds of thousands of women have discarded their hijab in defiance as women demand the right to choose their own clothing.

Verbal and physical altercations have since been on the rise as the state continues to expand the morality police patrols amid the mass rebellion, citizens fighting back against the Islamic Republic's theocratic rulings.

Women have been barred from public spaces, education and work places for refusing to wear the Islamic dress code, businesses closed and as a result, state surveillance, both overt and covert, has become ever more repressive.

While Iran boasts having the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, its production capacity has consistently fallen short of meeting escalating demand in recent years, especially during peak periods such as winter.

Historically, Iran has played a pivotal role in providing vital natural gas to fulfill Iraq's energy requirements, particularly for powering electricity generation.

Yet, a notable decrease in the supply of natural gas from Iran has exacerbated Iraq’s own energy crisis – with the country’s electricity output significantly lagging behind its increasing demand currently at 35 gigawatts.

While several multibillion-dollar contracts were signed with power giants by Iraq since 2008, efforts to address the crisis have largely failed, with corruption, mismanagement, and political interference leading to significant losses in investment.

Siemens and American General Electric (GE) are positioned to dominate the sector, leveraging partnerships with Iraqi interests.

South Pars field and Iran’s underperformance

The South Pars field – the world's largest natural gas field – is crucial for Iran's economy as it provides a substantial portion of the country's natural gas production.

The field, located in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Qatar, is also exposing Iranian officials’ underperformance in developing it in contrast to Qatar Petroleum.

Qatar has been extracting gas from South Pars since 1990, a decade ahead of Iran, and has produced nearly double the amount of gas from the field.

Meanwhile, based on its own estimates, Iran is expected to elevate its numbers over the next five years – from 1.07 billion cubic meters per day to 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm). However, such official claims often remain unrealized due to financial and technological constraints.

Iran is currently under a myriad of US and Western sanctions over its contentious nuclear program and confrontational foreign policy. Western energy giants are the only ones with the technology and resources to help boost Iran’s gas and oil production.

Officials, under pressure to increase production, claim that projects like the Kish gas field development, Farzad-B gas field cooperation, and ongoing development in the North Pars and Bilal gas fields are aimed to significantly increase Iran's daily gas output.

The head of Pars Oil and Gas Company, Mohammad Hossein Motejalli, has stated that initial development efforts aimed at enhancing gas production in Iran will result in an output equivalent to five standard phases of the South Pars gas field by 2027.

But, the South Pars field is reaching the latter stages of its productive lifespan. And, as the pressure in the field decreases, it becomes more challenging for Iran to maintain its capacity to supply natural gas for its domestic needs and to Iraq over the long term.

Unless Iran takes action to address the production and pressure issues within the South Pars field, its ability to sustain natural gas shipments to Iraq will be compromised.

Iraq, however, is not the only neighbor to influence the regional energy landscape.

Turkmenistan's capability and willingness to provide natural gas to Iraq through a swap agreement with Tehran introduce an additional dimension to the competition within the energy market of the region.

Sanctions exacerbate Tehran's underperformance

Iran’s existing challenges in its relationship with Iraq are further complicated due to payment methods restricted by US sanctions.

These sanctions have made it difficult for Iran to receive payments from Iraq for its oil exports, prompting discussions about alternative payment arrangements.

The recent agreement to exchange Iranian natural gas for Iraqi crude oil and fuel oil represents a strategic shift to bypass these financial constraints, ensuring the continuous flow of energy supplies between the two countries and strengthening their economic ties.

Despite Iran’s own technological challenges, underperformance, regional tensions and sanctions, Tehran hopes to grasp and hold on to its efforts to sustain energy cooperation with Iraq.

Far from flawless, Iran's gas promise to Iraq serves Tehran’s strategic aims beyond mere revenue generation: attempting to secure its regional influence by desperately trying to remain competitive by influencing energy dynamics.

Zeraati was injured in the leg when leaving his home in London on Friday afternoon.

The Standard newspaper, citing an eyewitness, reported on Saturday that two young men stabbed the journalist four times before fleeing the scene while laughing.

While the motive is unclear, the attack happened just a few months after a plot by the Iranian regime to kill 2 other Iran International journalists was revealed.

London's Metropolitan Police have initiated an investigation into the incident, noting the victim's profession as a reporter for a Persian-language media outlet based in Britain.

The attack is being treated with utmost seriousness, especially considering the multiple threats against the channel’s journalists in recent times, with specialist counter-terrorism officers leading the inquiry.

In response to the attack, numerous political figures and civil activists, including Masih Alinejad, Shirin Ebadi, and Alireza Akhondi, condemned the assault on Zeraati.

Meanwhile, Mehdi Hosseini Matin, an official at the Iranian embassy in London, denied any involvement of the country’s agents in the attack, in spite of the UK’s security services revealing that multiple attacks on UK-based dissident journalists have been foiled in the last two years.

Last year the channel’s offices had to temporarily relocate to the US after threats reached such a level that the UK’s domestic security services could no longer guarantee the staff’s safety.

The exhibition, also housing rare Saudi pieces, is housed within the historic Meridian Gate, the primary entrance to the centuries-old Beijing palace, and emblematic of China's Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI).

The GCI was introduced last March with the goal of “[injecting] strong impetus into advancing humanity’s modernization process and building a community with a shared future for mankind”.

The showcased relics, ranging from Al-Ula's sandstone altars to intricately crafted Persian ceramics adorned with Quranic motifs, showcase the historical interplay between Islam and ancient China along the Silk Road. Many of the artefacts have remained unseen due to stringent sanctions imposed by Washington on both nations.

The display is also a nod to the thaw in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, culminating in a historic peace accord brokered by parties including China in March 2023.

In 2016, Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic relations with Iran in the aftermath of the storming of its embassy in Tehran. The incident occurred amidst a disagreement over Riyadh's execution of a Shiite Muslim cleric. Tensions escalated with subsequent conflicts, marked by missile and drone assaults on Saudi oil facilities and tankers in the Persian Gulf, carried out by Iran's Houthi militia.

William Figueroa, an assistant professor of history and international relations at the University of Groningen, said the exhibition serves to boost China’s “modern ties” with the Middle East, particularly Iran, and bears “tremendous educational value”.

The spokesman for the Guardian Council, the constitutional body tasked with vetting legislation for compliance with Sharia or the Constitution, announced on Thursday that the Council has once again sent the bill back to the parliament for amendments — marking the fourth time. As in previous instances, Hadi Tahan-Nazif provided scant details regarding the specific changes required by the Council.

The bill generally referred to as the Hijab and Chastity bill, passed the parliament in September. Originally drawn up by the government of President Ebrahim Raisi in July 2023, it has undergone many changes by ultra-hardliner lawmakers who took advantage of the provisions of Article 85 of the Constitution to delegate the power of legislation to the Judicial Committee to avoid debates on the floor.

Analysts suggest that the ultra-hardline Council's reluctance to swiftly approve the legislation, contrary to the expectations of their political allies in the parliament, is not driven by public objections to its provisions. Instead, it likely arises from concerns about the potential political and security ramifications of enacting the legislation, among the highest levels of power.

Hijab enforcers harassing women at a beach in Babolsar, northern Iran

Tahan-Nazif also denied the recent claims by a hardline lawmaker, who said earlier this week that all state bodies involved in the matter of hijab legislation and enforcement, including the Guardian Council, had jointly decided to use cash fines as the primary means of forcing defiant women to comply with compulsory hijab.

The parliamentary committee in charge of the matter is under the sway of the Paydari (Steadfastness) Party. The party has its tentacles in all government institutions including the parliament where their members form an influential minority that often takes a leading role amid the weak presence of established conservative and reformist parties.

The legislation proposes various penalties including heavy cash fines for women who do not abide by the prescribed dress code.

Previously, lawmaker Mojtaba Karbasi had announced that first-time offenders would face a fine of 30 million rials (approximately $50), which would be deducted directly from their bank accounts without requiring their consent. Repeat offenders would face a fine of 240 million rials (around $400).

These are substantial amounts given the fact that ordinary monthly salaries hover around $200-250.

On Thursday the media reported that Seyed Mohammad Sadr, a member of the Expediency Council, has warned about the consequences of enacting the hijab legislation.

Women dancing at the very busy Tajrish Square in northern Tehran on New Year’s day

"The dissatisfaction of the people, especially women who constitute half of our society and the majority of whom adhere to Islam and the Islamic Revolution, will escalate if this bill is implemented. They will turn against the system (regime), leading to serious hazards," warned Sadr, who previously served as an advisor to reformist President Mohammad Khatami.

Sadr also criticized lawmakers’ plans to levy cash fines on women for unveiling or inadequate observance of hijab and to deduct it directly from their bank accounts without requiring their consent.

"This proposal will compel everyone to withdraw their deposits from banks and lose trust in the banking system. It will not only result in cultural harm and erode trust but also cause economic damage and lead to the bankruptcy of banks," he warned, seemingly alluding to social media calls urging people not to trust banks if they allow the government to infringe upon individuals' control over their bank accounts.

Since March 2023, hardliners have attempted to end women's increasing defiance of compulsory hijab and reclaim lost ground through various instructions to government bodies, but their efforts seem to have hugely backfired as the number of women who refuse to abide by the current rules has very noticeably increased since then.

The increase in the number of women appearing in public without veils, compared to the previous practice of partially covering their hair, was evident during this year's New Year (Norouz) holidays.

Celebration of the ancient festival, dancing in public, and unveiling, all despite the fasting month of Ramadan, went hand in hand in many places as a form of civil disobedience this year.

Videos shared on social media depict women in markets, beaches, and streets, including many traditional and conservative areas, with their hair openly displayed. Some videos also capture instances where men and women in black veils, protesting against the defiance of hijab, receive unabashed criticism from passersby and members of the public.