School Dropout At Highest Level In Iran In 15 Years

Responding to Zarif's comments, Amir-Hossein Mosalla, chief editor of the reformist Ayat-e Mandegar bi-weekly, tweeted, "How disgraceful was the arrogance in Zarif’s recent remarks, leaked as usual! Blaming radical reformists or those advocating to limit the leader's powers instead of critiquing the dictator responsible for the status quo, is nothing but seeking a share in power?"

The remarks referred to by Mosalla were made at a private meeting with a group of citizens recently an edited recording of which was leaked to IranWire. He alleged that during the 1999 student protests, reformists sought to lead demonstrators towards Khamenei’s residence in Tehran, aiming to topple him.

“Reformists sought elimination in 1999. That is, they said they wanted to change the Constitution [to limit Khamenei’s powers] … Obviously realistic rules apply here, when you seek elimination, when you threaten someone’s existence, he will be driven to threaten your existence,” Zarif said at the meeting.

In a tweet Saturday, Zarif defended himself against critics and claimed that when making the controversial remarks he only meant “a few radical reformists” who he claimed were not even approved of by the “majority of Reformists and Reformists’ leadership”. The former foreign minister who faced constant criticism by hardliners for advocating a nuclear deal with the West, has been in political limbo since he left his post. At the same time, he is disliked by most dissidents in Iran and abroad for having relentlessly defended the regime against charges of human rights violations. They call him “white-washer in-chief” for his role in defending the Khamenei-led system.

Top reformist politicians and media have not yet publicly reacted to Zarif’s remarks but many including Paris-based reformist activist Taghi Rahmani, whose wife, the Nobel Peace Laureate Narges Mohammadi is in prison for her political beliefs, have taken to social media to respond to Zarif.

“In Zarif’s mind the Iranian people have no place… Khamenei pitched the system against the people,” Rahmani said in a tweet stressing Khamenei’s responsibility in creating the divide between the ruling system and people.

Expatriate political activist Ali Afshari, one of the leaders of the student movement at the time of the attack on Tehran University, alleges that it was the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) that created the rumor at the time that reformists were aiming at deposing Khamenei as Supreme Leader. “[The majority of Reformists and Khatami’s administration] had no role in organizing and managing the protests on Tehran University campus,” he wrote.

Afshari who was arrested after the incident also alleges that IRGC’s intelligence tortured him to accuse President Khatami’s chief of staff, Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, of trying to incite students to chant against Khamenei and to lead protesters towards his residence in downtown Tehran.

Others argue that Khamenei's opposition to reforms stemmed from his fear of losing power, rather than radicalism within the reformist movement, as Zarif suggested.

The protests that began at the campus of Tehran University were sparked by the closure of the reformist newspaper Salam by the hardliner judiciary’s Press Court. Protests spread to several major cities in the following days after riot police, paramilitary Basij and other vigilantes raided the campus on the evening of July 9 with many protesters demanding secular democracy.

The law enforcement was under Khamenei’s own command at the time as he had refused to grant any authority over the police to the reformist government as commander-in-chief of armed forces.

One student was thrown to his death from a rooftop and over two hundred others were seriously injured during the harsh crackdown on students in one night. Over 1,200 were arrested in the following days and several students vanished without a trace.

Following the protests, the press court shut down twenty reformist newspapers in one day and many of Khatami’s allies were persecuted and imprisoned under various pretexts in the coming months.

In a letter sent on March 10, Rouhani pointed out the Council's criteria for disqualification, criticizing them as "generally involving vague affiliations" and lacking evidence contrary to explicit law. He insisted that the documents supporting the claims be presented "fully, without omission or summary."

The hardliners controlling the candidate vetting process for the March 1 elections rejected Rouhani's candidacy, pushing him into political isolation along with other former Iranian presidents. Rouhani had registered and expressed eagerness to run for a seat in the Assembly, which holds the constitutional duty to select Iran’s next Supreme Leader in the event of Ali Khamenei’s absence.

The move highlights a broader pattern of manipulation in Iranian elections, where non-hardliners are systematically rejected from candidacy, consolidating power within ultraconservative circles. Such tactics were previously observed in the 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections, resulting in the dominance of ultraconservatives in both the outgoing parliament and President Ebrahim Raisi’s administration.

Despite the regime's efforts to control the electoral process, concerns persist over the legitimacy of the elections, exacerbated by economic crises and nationwide protests. Official figures reported a turnout of 41 percent out of 61.1 million eligible voters, but doubts linger over the accuracy of the numbers with some estimates as low as nine percent.

All elected and re-elected members of parliament need to have their mandates approved first by the investigative committee and then in full session of the newly elected legislature.

Ghalibaf’s saga started when Hamid Rasaei, a newly elected hardliner politician attacked him in a TV program and on social media, calling the veteran politician, former IRGC general, mayor of Tehran and speaker of parliament a “hypocrite.” The IRGC media immediately came to Ghalibaf’s defense threatening that Rasaei’s credentials could be rejected in parliament. It is worth noting that Ghalibaf is a relative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and it is safe to assume that he enjoys his support.

According to Reformist figure Mohammad Reza Javadi-Hesar, the ultraconservatives at the new Majles (parliament) might take Ghalibaf's credentials hostage to make sure that Rasai's credentials get the approval of the parliament, and he can get away with undermining Khamenei's advice to avoid conflicts and controversies.

Javadi-Hesar also warned that hardliners might use all their political muscle and influence to back the motion to reject Ghalibaf's credentials to blackmail him and his supporters and get Rasaei's credentials through the vetting during the next parliament's first two weeks in May and June.

The elections were marred by the lowest turnout in the 45-year history of the Islamic Republic. Official numbers said 41 percent voted in the March 1 elections, although many observers looking at partial numbers published believe the turnout might have been around 30 percent. Also, millions of people cast invalid ballots to show their dismay at the existing conditions in the country. All this has put the legitimacy of the new parliament in serious doubt.

There were as many as 500,000 invalid ballots cast in Tehran alone, with some hardliners getting elected with around 5% of all eligible votes in the capital.

Another lawmaker, Massoud Pezeshkian, who won the elections only after Khamenei intervened to avert his disqualification by the Guardian Council, told reformist Shargh newspaper that the newly elected hardliner lawmakers have very limited experience and knowledge. He explained that the regime is underestimating potential damage by barring the candidacy of many experienced politicians from the elections and putting the ultraconservatives in majority of the new parliament.

Pezeshkian reiterated his concern, stating, "The new lawmakers are incapable of addressing the country's major challenges." Additionally, he criticized the government, highlighting its failure to deliver on numerous promises regarding housing, employment, and tackling economic corruption. He further remarked, "The government has failed to fulfill even one of the many promises it made."

He further argued that "I cannot say the Majles and the government ignore the country's problems, but their decisions are problematic and those who should carry out these decisions are not capable of accomplishing their tasks. They lack the knowledge and experience for doing their job."

Meanwhile, hardliners continue to make outlandish claims about how successful the elections were. Esmail Kowsari, a hardliner and an IRGC officer said in an interview that “polling stations in Tehran were too busy and the waiting lines were too long in the morning, so voters decided to vote in the afternoon. The situation was the same in the afternoon, so they decided to go to the polls during the night, but the polls were still busy."

However, numerous videos taken by citizens showed empty polling stations in the capital and other large cities. The lackluster elections has become another issue of legitimacy for the regime that faces intractable economic and other crises.

Hadi Tahan Nazif, the spokesperson for the council, announced the decision on Saturday. The Guardian Council is a 12-member body which checks if the legislations passed by the parliament are not against the country’s Constitution and the Islamic laws.

"With the amendments made by the parliament and in compliance with Article 4 of the Public Service Duty Law and within the framework of the measures of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, it (reducing the mandatory military service) was not considered contrary to the criteria of Sharia and the Constitution," he said.

Mohsen Dehnavi, a member of the parliament's presiding board, said in February that, "The average military service, including the training period, will be reduced to 14 months, meaning a minimum of three months reduction in the service of all soldiers."

Under the plan, individuals over the age of 35 with two or more children are exempt from compulsory military service, offering relief to a specific demographic.

Military service in Iran is obligatory for all Iranian men over 18 years old, except for certain exemptions outlined in the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The mandatory 21 to 24-month service has faced criticism due to the physical and psychological pressures on soldiers, sometimes leading to outcomes such as suicide or violent acts.

Recent reports of such incidents have further underscored the concerns. Last month, the prosecutor of Bam in Kerman province confirmed the death of a conscript due to self-inflicted gunshot wounds. Similarly, Iranian media reported on January 22 that a soldier stationed in a garrison in Kerman had killed five fellow soldiers before fleeing.

The decision to approve the reduction of the service, which had been sidelined for at least four years, follows recent reforms in conscript payments.

In November, Iran introduced a new salary structure for its soldiers, who can now receive variable monthly salaries ranging from $60 to a maximum of $180. The current minimum wage in Iran is around $150 a month with the average income between $150-250.

In a meeting between the defense ministers of Iran and Syria Saturday, the Iranian official said his country is willing to “utilize its full capabilities” to help Syria strengthen its “defense and deterrence” against Israel and the United States.

Shortly after, the Syrian army announced that Israeli missiles had hit “several points” in southern Syria early Sunday local time, injuring one soldier and causing some “material damage”.

No more details were offered immediately, neither by Syria nor by Israel –which rarely comments on such events. Several local sources reported, however, that the targets had links with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and were located around the Syrian capital, Damascus.

Syrian opposition sources indicated Israel launched missiles from the Golan Heights targeting the Damascus countryside. Some reports spoke of large explosions lighting up the night sky.

Israel is known to launch frequent airstrikes inside Syria, often targeting IRGC-related sites or personnel. These airstrikes have intensified since October 7, when Hamas forces stormed Israeli territory bordering Gaza, killing more than a thousand civilians and soldiers.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has recorded 24 Israeli attacks inside Syria this year, killing more than 40, including members of Hezbollah and the IRGC.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have scaled back deployment of senior officers in Syria due to a spate of deadly Israeli strikes and were relying more on allied Shi'ite militia to preserve their sway there, Reuters reported in February.

The attacks early Sunday seem to have hit a weapons depot linked to Iran and a military airport, both in the outskirts of Damascus. SOHR has said that two Hezbollah bases in north-east Syria have been targeted.

It’s unclear if the timing has had anything to do with the meeting between the defense ministers of Iran and Syria Saturday –where the Iranian general warned Israel and America not to ‘intensify’ the ongoing crisis in the region.

Iran and its regional allies, identifying themselves as the Axis of Resistance, have been in a state of heightened military tension since last October, but have so far managed to avert a full-blown war, thanks also to the Biden administration’s reluctance to confront Iran.

The Israeli government, however, has been far more willing to launch direct attacks on Iranian interests, especially in Syria, where several IRGC officers were killed a few months ago. As a result, the regime in Tehran seems to have slowed the flow of its IRGC personnel into Syria.

The scale and significance of the latest attack is yet to be known. So is Iran’s response, if any. Recent history suggests that Iran prefers to let such attacks go unanswered, focusing instead on enabling and coordinating its allied groups to keep threatening US and Israeli interests.

Reports emerged Friday that senior Houthi and Hamas representatives held a rare meeting in Lebanon last week to discuss “expanding confrontations and encircling" Israel. Other Palestinian factions were also present at the meeting, according to AFP, including the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

The aim, AFP reports, was to find ways to “coordinate their actions of resistance" for the "next stage" of the war in Gaza. It is hard to imagine Iran –or IRGC’s Quds Force, to be more specific– not having played a leading role in this.