Government Fails To Help Flood Victims In Iran

According to official statistics, 10 million people were eligible to vote in Tehran province. Mehr news agency, close to Iran’s hardliners, claimed a voter turnout of 24 percent in the capital, which means around 2.4 million participated in the elections.

However, according to the Interior Ministry’s preliminary list of the leading candidates in Tehran, the frontrunner, Mahmoud Nabavian, has only received 120,000 votes; that is, slightly more than 2% of the total votes. This figures can be taken to imply that either much less than 24% voted, or a large number of the electorate chose to cast invalid votes.

Tehran sends 30 members to parliament, while other constituencies each have their own share of seats. Candidates receiving the highest number of votes in each district fill the available slots.

In recent years, many Iranians have cast invalid votes as a means to express their dissatisfaction with the status quo. While the Iranian regime asserts that citizens are free to decide whether to participate in elections and that abstaining will not incur penalties, numerous reports suggest that the Islamic Republic closely monitors individuals' voting records, thus exerting significant control over their freedom of choice.

This process is particularly implemented for citizens holding a governmental position, such as teachers, university professors, and civil servants. According to reports, one of the key criteria to renew the contracts of the government employees or to grant them promotions is their voting records, which is construed by security and intelligence agencies as a sign of allegiance to the regime. Those who have to vote to keep their jobs express their discontent through invalid votes.

Back in 2021, the presidential elections witnessed the same voting strategy by dissenting citizens who cast more than 3.7 million invalid votes to protest regime policies. The significance of this number becomes apparent only when we notice that the second leading candidate then, Mohsen Rezaei, won only 3.4 million votes from 60 million eligible voters.

Italy-based political analyst Ehsan Soltani referred to the discrepancy between the official turnout and the number of valid votes in Tehran, and predicted, “The number of invalid votes might surprise everyone.”

He also noted that the 30th ranking candidate in the 2016 parliamentary elections in Tehran received more than a million votes while the frontrunner on Friday managed to get just 120,000, concluding that the regime has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the citizens.

Even if we accept the government's claim of a 24% turnout in Tehran, this marks the lowest voter participation in the capital during the Islamic Republic's rule.

The invalid votes also played a major role in recent elections in Yazd, a conservative city in central Iran. The winning candidate in the city, Mohammad Saleh Jokar, was elected to the parliament with more than 81,000 votes while the second on the list was “invalid votes” with close to 30,000, around 10,000 votes more than the next top candidate, Ali Morteza Rad.

Another point of note about the preliminary results of the parliamentary elections in Tehran is that many hardliners are leading the list. The fact that these hardliners got elected with the their meager votes by not testify to their popularity in the capital. On the contrary, this is a clear sign that even many supporters of the regime abstained from voting in the elections due to their disillusionment. Most non-hardliners were barred from running by the ministry of interior and election watchdog, the Guardian Council.

Even former president Hassan Rouhani, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and many other loyal regime insiders were barred from running in elections in 2021 and 2024.

Iranian regime media, including IRNA and the IRGC-affiliated Fars news website, claim a voter turnout of more than 40%, the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. However, social media accounts offer a contrasting narrative through videos and images, indicating much lower participation.

Former reformist lawmaker Mahmoud Sadeghi taunted the celebratory rhetoric by many governmental media regarding the claimed 40% turnout. “In the previous parliamentary elections (2020), they said that only 42.5% voted because of the Covid pandemic; now that the turnout is even less, they pretend it is a victory for them!” he wrote on X.

Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, a senior aide to the former president, confirmed the report on Saturday.

Iran's hardliners, using the interior ministry and the election watchdog, the Guardian Council, barred hundreds of former officials and politicans from running in the elections.

Khatami used to be so popular in the past that his call for participation in the elections would guarantee millions of votes.

In February, he highlighted widespread dissatisfaction among educated youth, elites, and over 50 percent of the population who abstained from voting in the 2020 and 2021 elections.

The former president emphasized the need for competitive, free, and fair elections, advocating for representation of reformists, conservatives, and all Iranians.

Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, only individuals loyal to the clerical regime have been permitted to run in elections. Those with dissenting views not only faced bans on political activities but also risked arrest and lengthy prison terms.

Though a large number of Reformists chose not to run in Iran’s recent parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, the few who had registered were mostly disqualified by the Guardian Council. The most prominent example was former president Hassan Rouhani who was barred from re-election at the Assembly of Experts.

Though Iranian regime media claim a voter turnout of more than 40% in the elections, social media posts offer a contrasting narrative through videos and images, indicating a lackluster participation.

A telephone poll conducted from abroad by Washington-based Stasis Consulting had projected that the turnout would be set to hit a new record low of just 34 percent.

Iran and Russia have recently signed 19 contracts to strengthen their bilateral cooperation across various industries, as reported by the Shana News Agency, affiliated with the Iranian Oil Ministry. These agreements, reached during the 17th meeting of the joint economic cooperation committee in Tehran, encompass energy, health, trade, and education sectors. Talks are also underway to develop new gas and oil reserves, indicating the potential for further agreements soon.

Furthermore, the electrical companies of both nations have entered into a cooperative agreement aimed at advancing research and technology in power generation. This initiative seeks to enhance collaboration through digitalizing electrical networks, improving energy efficiency, and localizing equipment manufacturing. Additionally, a protocol has been adopted to modify the roadmap for scientific and technological collaboration in the oil and gas industry, emphasizing practical cooperation enhancement in 21 key areas.

Challenges and Opportunities

For the Iranian energy industry as well as the larger geopolitical environment, the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on technological collaboration between Russia's Transneft and Iran's Ministry of Oil brings both chances and problems.

By possibly introducing Russian technology into Iran's oil industry, the MOU establishes a precedent for technical collaboration. This might improve the production and efficiency of Iran's oil and gas projects. The strengthening alliance between Russia and Iran has the potential to change local energy supply environments, which might affect global energy pricing and distribution networks.

The deal is a component of larger conversations on energy cooperation, which also include the development of gas reserves and the establishment of a gas hub in Iran. Iran's standing in the international energy market may be enhanced by this.

However, Iran and Russia have a history of broken agreements,which highlights how difficult it is to meet the promises of these MOUs. The contradiction between Russia's reluctance to convert memoranda into contracts and Iran's statements suggests that execution may be difficult. Both nations have lofty goals, but they also have economic difficulties. For example, Gazprom of Russia has experienced a sharp decline in earnings and a rise in debt, casting doubt on the viability of spending $40 billion in Iran's energy industry.

Russia and Iran are also potential competitors in the energy markets, while Western sanctions on both nations might make cooperation more difficult by impeding the execution of ambitious objectives. Although the MOU gives Iran a chance to alleviate its natural gas shortage, Iran's energy independence may be compromised if it becomes dependent on Russian gas through swaps or direct transfers.

Iran and Russia have recently solidified their bilateral cooperation by signing 19 contracts, marking an advancement across various sectors. This development follows the successful negotiations of agreements covering commerce, energy, health, and education at the 17th meeting of the Joint Economic Cooperation Committee in Tehran, Iran.

The MOU between Transneft and Iran's Ministry of Oil, which holds promise for enhancing collaboration within the oil industry, but intricacies of geopolitics and conflicting economic interests, uncertainties persist regarding its specific objectives and potential consequences.

Even with all the possible drawbacks—like dependency worries, financial restraints, and legal obstacles—one can't help but wonder what real intentions are driving these partnerships. It begs the question of whether Iran and Russia have other hidden goals at work, or if they are just looking to take advantage of these openings to increase their energy capabilities and influence globally. While building strong relationships, promoting innovation, and deftly managing global dynamics may seem appealing, it also raises the issue of what hidden agendas may be at play.

The intercepted missile on Saturday was identified as a significant threat to US aircraft in the region.

“On March 1, at approximately 12:40 pm (Sanaa time), US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a self-defense strike against one Iranian-backed Houthi surface-to-air missile that was prepared to launch from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen towards the Red Sea. CENTCOM forces identified the missile and determined it presented an imminent threat to US aircraft in the region,” CENTCOM announced on X.

The incident unfolds amid escalating tensions, with Houthi fighters targeting both commercial and military vessels since November. Initially directed at ships associated with Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, the attacks have since broadened to include vessels linked to the United Kingdom and the United States.

Last month, US forces, in collaboration with the United Kingdom Armed Forces and other nations, launched strikes against 18 Houthi targets in Yemen controlled by Iranian-backed Houthi militants.

The multinational efforts, as stated by US Central Command, aim to protect their respective countries, partners, and allies in the region. The heightened insecurity in the Red Sea has prompted major shipping lines to avoid the critical trade route, opting for longer journeys around Africa. The shift has led to increased expenses, raising concerns about global inflation.

After losing the election in the constituency of Kerman and Ravar, Mohammad-Reza Pour-Ebrahimi stated that “buying and selling votes, giving massive gifts and conducting unlawful campaigns” as some of the widespread violations.

He called on the Guardian Council to carry out an immediate and thorough investigation of the irregularities.

Pour-Ebrahimi is the head of the outgoing Iranian Parliament’s Economic Commission and is considered an influential lawmaker. He has represented Kerman and Ravar in parliament for three consecutive terms.

What some candidates committed definitely affected the results in the constituency, he added in his statement.

Iran’s parliamentary and the Assembly of Experts elections were held simultaneously on Friday, an event which was met with a massive boycott by the public, the opposition and civil and political activists.

Iranian regime media, including IRNA and the IRGC-affiliated Fars news website, claim a voter turnout of more than 40%. However, social media accounts offer a contrasting narrative through videos and images, indicating a much more lackluster participation.

Over the past days, the regime drastically stepped up its measures to lure the unwilling citizens to vote.

In one instance, Iran's infamous police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan said that the soldiers serving in the police force will be granted four days of leave in exchange for participating in the elections.

Iran’s security and intelligence institutions had also mounted pressure to prevent boycott campaigns.

Some activists reported that they received threatening text messages from Iran’s judiciary over launching or supporting boycott campaigns on their social media pages.