Two Iranian Clerics Say Khamenei Opposes Hereditary Succession
Two candidates vying for the Assembly of Experts election in Tehran suggest that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opposes the notion of naming his son, Mojtaba, as his successor.
Two candidates vying for the Assembly of Experts election in Tehran suggest that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opposes the notion of naming his son, Mojtaba, as his successor.
However, the timing and context of these statements on Wednesday, just two days before the March 1 elections, raise questions about their authenticity and purpose.
For many years, Iranians and Iran watchers have wondered if Khamenei has been grooming his son to succeed him, especially with presenting him as a religious scholar, a trait seen as important for the future ruler.
The Assembly has the constitutional role of selecting the next ruler after Khamenei’s passing and its composition important for the Supreme Leader.
Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi, a cleric close to Khamenei and a current Assembly of Experts member, stated in an interview with the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) that Khamenei has voiced his disapproval of the committee's suggestion to appoint his son as the next leader. The committee which includes President Ebrahim Raisi is composed of three Assembly of Experts members to identify suitable successors for Khamenei and to introduce them to him for consideration.
Similarly, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, another candidate for the AoE election whose credentials were first rejected by the Guardian Council and then approved at the last minute, has also reiterated that Khamenei is against the idea of hereditary succession.
However, Pourmohammadi emphasized his readiness to support any candidate deemed fit to succeed Khamenei, irrespective of their familial ties.
The timing of these remarks and Iranian officials including Khamenei's concerns about an expected low turnout that endangers the regime's legitimacy gives rise to speculations about these remarks having been dictated by Khamenei to tell the voters that their voting will not be meaningless and that his successor has not been chosen beforehand.
On the other hand, Mohamadi Araghi's account of Khamenei's opposition to hereditary succession dates back to nearly three decades ago when Khamenei was not as confident and arrogant as the present time.
The remarks made by the two candidates about Khamenei's opposition to hereditary succession come only a few days after several AoE members confirmed that the committee of three has already made its decision about the succession. One Assembly of Experts member who was sure about the process of selecting the next leader having been completed, said that his name will not be revealed as officials fear that foreign agents might assassinate him!
Despite the suggestions about Khamenei's opposition to hereditary succession, some clerics such as Qom Seminarian Sadeq Mohammadi insisted that Khamenei's son Mojtaba is still one of the choices for succession.
Mohamadi Araghi also made other controversial statements apparently aimed to pacify disgruntled voters to go to the polls for the parliamentary and AoE elections on Friday. He said the Islamic Republic's former and current leader have always preferred non-clerics as President and cabinet ministers. However, five of Iran's eight presidents since 1979 have been clerics.
Asked about why he thinks the Guardian Council barred former President Hassan Rouhani from running for a seat on the Assembly, Mohammad Araghi said the rejection of Rouhani's qualifications was probably related to matters other than his religious and academic credentials, but he refused to say what those matters were.
Rohani had said earlier that the next round of the Assembly of Experts is more important than the previous rounds as it might be time for the Assembly to make tough decisions about succession. Mohammad Araghi also said that Khamenei is aging and most probably electing the next Supreme Leader will have to be done by the new Assembly of Experts.
However, if the committee and Khamenei have already chosen the successor, the Assembly will become redundant, and its decision may not be needed. To be on the safe side, like several other AoE members, Mohammadi Araghi also said that he hopes Khamenei will be alive until the Shiites' hidden Imam emerges from occultation, where they believe he has been for nearly 14 centuries.
The projection is 9% down on the last elections four years ago, already the lowest turnout at the time, and comes ahead of voting on Friday.
In a significant finding revealing the disillusion of the younger generation, only 19% of Iranians aged between 18 and 29 are highly likely to vote.
The research was announced by the Middle East Institute on Wednesday, based on a poll carried out by Stasis Consulting based in the United States. But even a telephone poll conducted professionally and according to standard practices, might not fully reveal the anti-government inclinations of the respondents due to a possible fear factor. Citizens answering a telephone survey are never sure who is collecting the information, and if the government is not involved. Therefore, there is a higher likelihood that they may not provide answered deemed more damaging to the regime.
“One of the most surprising findings among the survey results is that respondents without a college education say they are less likely to participate in the election (31%) than those with a college degree (40%). Historically, Stasis polling has tracked the opposite relationship between education level and voter participation rates,” reported Middle East Institute, which is a Washington-based think-tank.
The top three reasons given for not voting were lack of faith in the candidates (20%), lack of faith in the government (17%), and the belief that neither voting nor parliament’s decisions have any effect (17%).
According to the poll, most Iranians are dissatisfied with President Ebrahim Raisi, with 65% disapproving and 49% strongly disapproving of his performance over the past three years.
“This could be the first post-1979 election in which voter turnout declines below 40%,” Arash Ghafouri, Stasis Consulting director, told the Middle East Institute.
Ghafouri pointed to nationwide uprisings over the past years and particularly the widespread demonstrations since the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022 as evidence for Iranians being “very dissatisfied” with the government.
Alex Vatanka, the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, said the results of the current poll are “hardly surprising” given the elimination of many groups and parties, including the so-called reformists, from Iran’s political scene.
“Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 84, no longer takes any chances. He is focused on consolidating control in the hands of the very few hardline loyalists whom he wants in positions of power when he eventually dies. The Iranian people can see through this mockery and refuse to play Khamenei’s cynical game,” he stated.
Addressing the unwillingness of young Iranians to vote, Vatanka said that the regime and the IRGC have lost touch with the younger generations.
He added Iran’s young “have increasingly less to lose in a society where jobs are scarce, corruption is rife, the economy only delivers for those with political connections, and the ruling elite espouses social and cultural policies that are hugely out of touch with regular Iranians”.
Over the past weeks, the Iranian officials have called on citizens to participate in the parliamentary and the Assembly of Experts elections which will be held on Friday.
On Wednesday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei struck an unusually mild tone in his speech aimed at convincing those hesitant to vote.
“We should view the elections from the national interests’ perspective, not from factional perspectives. If the election [turnout] is weak, the loss will affect everyone,” he said, while stressing that he was not “accusing anyone”.
The IRGC’s top commander Hossein Salami reiterated a similar stance earlier in the month, urging Iranians to “perceive the sensitivity of the situation and come to the ballot boxes.”
Political activists, opposition parties and large sections of the public have vowed to boycott March 1 elections.
On Sunday, over 275 political, social, and cultural activists announced their decision to abstain from participating in the forthcoming elections.
"The failed politics of participation and presence in the elections, in any case and at any cost, has never succeeded, as evidenced by repeated trials and bitter historical experiences in recent decades," they said in a joint statement.
Rejecting the upcoming elections as “theatrical” and “staged managed,” Narges Mohammadi, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and imprisoned human rights activist, stressed that boycotting the vote is a “duty”.