Hardliners In Iran Bar Ex-President Rouhani From Elections

Amir Shahvelayati and Matin Hassani were apprehended on Tuesday in Tehran and Bukan, West Azarbaijan province, respectively.

Human rights organizations Hengaw and HRANA reported that Amir Shahvelayati was summoned to the Evin courthouse on Tuesday, detained, and subsequently transferred to Evin Prison. The charges against him include "propaganda against the system," "membership in a subversive group," and "actions against security."

Shahvelayati sustained eye damage from a pellet shot during the Woman Life Freedom protests. First arrested last May, he was released on bail after two months until the latest arrest.

Matin Hassani, another victim of eye injuries, was reportedly arrested in Bukan on the same day. Hassani lost vision in one eye due to a pellet gunshot during protests following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini.

Recent weeks saw him sharing images of his visits to the graves of protest victims. His arrest coincided with the publication of images showing him at the gravesite of Yalda Aghafazli, a victim of the Woman Life Freedom movement.

Despite the arrests, the judicial authorities of the Islamic Republic have not issued any official comments on the situation.

In September, the Iran Human Rights Organization (IHR) disclosed the identities of numerous individuals who suffered eye injuries when Iranian security forces fired at protesters. The IHR emphasized in its report that security forces targeted protesters' eyes, particularly women, in a "systematic and deliberate" manner with alarming precision.

The report documented 138 cases of eye injuries, with 43 individuals choosing anonymity while providing evidence. The remaining 95 cases, including 8 children under 18, were extensively detailed in the report.

However, there have been limited signs of cooperation from Beijing, according to US officials cited in a Financial Times report.

Over the past three months, US officials have consistently raised concerns about these attacks with senior Chinese officials. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer addressed the matter during recent meetings with Liu Jianchao, who heads China's Communist Party's International Liaison Department.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also discussed the issue with his Chinese counterpart. Despite these discussions, US officials believe that China has not exerted significant pressure on Iran to curb the Houthi rebels, aside from issuing a mild statement on the subject last week.

Houthis began launching missiles and drones at commercial vessels passing through the strategic Red Sea carrying cargo between Asia and Europe. The attacks began after Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called for a blockade of Israel, after war broke out in Gaza.

Earlier, the US military conducted strikes in Yemen, destroying two Houthi anti-ship missiles aimed at the Red Sea and ready for launch. On another occasion, US and British forces conducted strikes targeting a Houthi underground storage site, as well as missile and surveillance capabilities used by the Iran-aligned group for attacks on Red Sea shipping.

The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted global shipping and raised concerns about global inflation. They have also heightened worries that the fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict could further destabilize the Middle East.

The US military also carried out more strikes in Yemen early on Wednesday, destroying two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed at the Red Sea and were preparing to launch, the US military said in a statement.

The US strikes, which took place at roughly 2:30 a.m. (2330 GMT), are the latest against the Iran-backed group over its targeting of Red Sea shipping, and followed a larger round of strikes a day earlier.

US troops in Iraq and Syria have been attacked about 150 times by Iran-aligned militants since the Israel-Gaza war started in October, creating pressure on President Joe Biden to respond militarily, despite political sensitivities in Baghdad.

On Saturday, four US personnel suffered traumatic brain injuries after Iraq's Ain al-Asad air base was hit by multiple ballistic missiles and rockets fired by Iranian-backed militants from inside Iraq.

"US military forces conducted necessary and proportionate strikes on three facilities used by the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia group and other Iran-affiliated groups in Iraq," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement.

"These precision strikes are in direct response to a series of escalatory attacks against US and Coalition personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-sponsored militias," Austin added.

US Central Command, which carries out operations in the Middle East, said the strikes in three locations targeted Kataib Hezbollah "headquarters, storage, and training locations for rocket, missile" and drone capabilities.

In Iraq, a medical source and a militant source said the US strikes killed at least two militants and that four other people were wounded.

Kataib Hezbollah military spokesperson Jaafar al-Husseini said in a post on X that the group would continue to target "enemy bases" until the end of Israel's seige in Gaza and singled out US support for Israel's campaign.

The Iranian regime has avoided direct military involvement in the Gaza war, preferring not to escalate the conflict to a confrontation with Israel and the US. However, its proxy forces in the Middle East have been widely attacking US and Israeli interests, as well as international shipping in the Red Sea.

The US has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq, advising and assisting local forces to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, which in 2014 seized large parts of both countries before being defeated.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's office announced moves to evict US forces following a US drone strike in Baghdad earlier this month that was condemned by the government. The Pentagon said that strike killed a militia leader responsible for recent attacks on US personnel.

Sudani has limited control over some Iran-backed factions, whose support he needed to win power a year ago and who now form a powerful bloc in his governing coalition.

The Pentagon has said it has not been formally notified of any plans to end the US troop presence in the country, and says its troops are deployed to Iraq at the invitation of the government in Baghdad.

Following the US strike, Abo Alaa al-Walai, a militia commander sanctioned by the US last year for involvement in attacks on US forces, said Iran-backed Iraqi militias operating under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq should expand operations by "enforcing a blockade on Zionist maritime navigation in the Mediterranean Sea."

Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei has been calling on Muslim countries to blockade Israel since early November.

Reporting by Reuters

Senator Hussain Syed, head of Pakistan's Defense Committee, told Iran International that the attack seemed like a “deep state operation” to save face following a series of recent security breaches, the latest of which was twin blasts on the death anniversary of IRGC-Quds Force former commander Qasem Soleimani in Kerman. 

“There were issues of security, and the election is coming up in Iran. I think this was an Iranian deep state operation,” he said, explaining that “Iran has multiple centers of power.” 

Hussain noted that Iran's Quds Force, which is in charge of operations overseas, has historically played a dominant role in Iran's foreign policy, particularly in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, pointing the finger at the body which also manages Iran's regional proxies. “A lot of foreign policy initiatives are not decided by Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs or even by the president perhaps,” he said. “It was their own operation.”

However, it is unlikely that such an operation was not given the green light by the country's Supreme Leader who has the ultimate control of Iran's proxies abroad. “I don't think the Iranian Foreign Minister knew about it, because two hours before the operation he had a very cordial and pleasant meeting with our prime minister in Davos,” he said, suggesting that the operation was kept to a closed circle. 

"It was an Iranian deep state operation by their Revolutionary Guards, who operate as a state within a state, and they are very powerful,” he underlined, saying that “Qasem Soleimani was the most powerful man in Iran after the Supreme Leader.” Countries such as the UK have called Iran its number one threat after tens of attacks on its soil have been foiled, coordinated by Iran's Quds Forces and Ministry of Intelligence.

Hussain also noted the timing of Iran's attack on its neighbor, amid heightening regional tensions. He suggested that Iran flexing its military might could be Iran's desire to send a message to Israel, the US and the West that “if you want to attack us, bomb us, we are ready for a military strike.”

He said, “I think it was pressure on Iran after the al-Aqsa Flood operation,” referring to Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7 that was the onset of the escalating Middle East conflict.

By attacking targets in Pakistan, Iraq and Syria within 24 hours, Iran wanted to send a message to the West that it has “the capability, the willingness and the intention” to act militarily if the need arises while its proxies wreak havoc across the region, including Yemen's Houthis blockading the Red Sea. Iran continues to deny its involvement in any of its proxies missions from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran misjudged the response from Pakistan and Iraq which, following the attacks, both not only recalled ambassadors but lodged legal action at the UN Security Council. Iran also did not account for Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrikes. 

Through what Hussain called "stupid action", "Iran has brought Iraq back into the American lap ... lost the goodwill in Pakistan and the region... and also showed that Iran’s military power has its limits.” 

Although the ministry has declined to specify the number of detainees believed to be held by the Iranian regime, recent reports suggest an increase in the number of detained Swedes. The latest was a 60-year-old dual Swedish-Iranian citizen arrested on January 19.

The Swedish foreign ministry summoned Iran's charge d'affaires on January 17 urging the release of all detained Swedish citizens and expressing concern over the missile attack on Erbil, Iraq, on January 15.

On January 16, a Swedish man in his twenties residing in central Iran was also arrested. The ministry cited consular confidentiality for not disclosing further details about the detainee's identity.

TV4 Sweden reported that the charges include "complicity in murder" and "weapons-related crimes" in connection with a fatal shooting, with an arrest warrant issued in late December.

In a separate case, Johan Floderus, a 33-year-old Swedish EU diplomat, has been detained in Iran since April 2022. His trial began in December.

Iran is known for regularly arresting foreigners and individuals holding dual citizenship as part of a tactic to gain leverage in negotiations with Western nations. The United States released $6 billion of Iran's blocked funds in 2023 to secure the freedom of five hostages.

The situation has escalated since Sweden upheld a life sentence for a former Iranian official convicted last year for his part in a mass execution of political prisoners in Iran in 1988, making Swedish citizens particularly vulnerable to Iran's hostage diplomacy.

In 2022, the Stockholm District Court ruling found Hamid Noury guilty of murder and serious crimes against international law.