Iranian Conservatives Jockey Ahead Of Lackluster Elections
With all the talk about Iran's fate in a possible escalation of war in the region, the parliamentary election on March 1 is not the foremost concern for Iranians.
With all the talk about Iran's fate in a possible escalation of war in the region, the parliamentary election on March 1 is not the foremost concern for Iranians.
Besides immediate fears of war and conflict, Iranian media also highlight expectations of a low turnout amid a general indifference to the regime’s highly manipulated elections.
Nevertheless, Iranian media are passionately discussing what the election might hold for Iranians, although almost all of them are quite sure that ultraconservatives will win the majority of seats in the parliament (Majles).
Reports in the reformist media alternate between the news of fresh divides and new alliances in the conservative camp. Arman Melli, a reformist daily, wrote last week with a high degree of certainty that "Conservatives are unlikely to reach unity."
The daily argued that although it is too early to predict what will happen in the conservative camp, the dynamics among conservative groups indicate that there is a likelihood of an alliance, and it is almost certain that Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's name will be at the top of the conservatives' list of candidates.
This comes despite Ghalibaf not being the most popular figure among Iranian conservatives, as even members of the parliament have lately criticized him harshly for his inaction and his failure to establish the parliament's supervisory role.
Yet, the daily speculated that there are more signs in the conservative camp indicating divides among various groups. Arman Melli wrote that the sheer number of various groups is more indicative of divides than alliances. The daily noted that all conservative groups in Iran believe that unity is something good only if they are the leader of the alliance. This is what can easily turn the illusion of an alliance into solid signs of divide.
Another pro-reform daily, Arman Emrooz, wrote on January 16 that an alliance is likely to be formed by conservative groups, led by the hardliner Paydari Party, which holds the majority in the current Majles and most of the cabinet ministers of the Raisi Administration are its members. The daily argued that accepting Paydari's leadership is the only condition that can bring about an alliance among Iranian conservatives.
Arman Emrooz added that key conservative figures such as father figure Gholam Ali Haddad Adel and Assadollah Badamchian of the Islamic Coalition Party have already agreed that Paydari should lead other conservative parties and political groups. Although the two men are influential enough, but other conservative groups have still not voiced their views about Paydari's leadership.
Badamchain has recently said that his party has 200 candidates for constituencies all over the country. It appears that there is currently an agreement among conservatives that Paydari should continue to hold the majority of the Majles under the speakership of current Speaker Mohammad Baghert Ghalibaf. This was the arrangement that was first made after the current Majles convened for the first time in May 2020. Ghalibaf does not have a big number of followers in or out of the parliament, but despite essential differences, even Paydari agrees that as a relative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Ghalibaf can be a good leader for the Majles, and his kinship ties gives him the leverage to resist pressures coming from the executive branch.
However, Ghalibaf has powerful rivals in the internal election for choosing a speaker. Paydari's Leader Sadeq Mahsouli, and the Chairman of its Central Council Morteza Aqa Tehrani have always been serious competitors for the post. In the next Majles, there is a true conservative heavyweight Ghalibaf and others need to tackle: Mohammad Reza Bahonar. Even hardliner Mohammad Hossein Naqavi Hosseini says Bahonar stands way higher than others in the competition for the post of the speaker of the parliament.
The only thing that can stop Bahonar, a seasoned politician and a former Vice Speaker, from rising to the position of Speaker is a sold alliance among other conservative groups, Naqavi Hosseini said.
Eqtesad100, a prominent Iranian news website, scrutinized the contradictory statements from government officials and bakers in a detailed report on Sunday. The situation became more complex with reports circulating about a directive from the Baker's Union.
While some sources suggested citizens are prohibited from purchasing more than "four loaves with one bank card," Eqtesad100, citing confirmed reports from the union, indicated that the sale of "more than three Barbari breads with one bank card" is prohibited.
The reported restrictions, if violated by bakers, trigger a penalty, as they receive a notification of "unauthorized sale" in a specialized system.
Amir Karamlou, head of the inspection commission of the Traditional Bakers' Union in Tehran, said on Saturday that Tehran bakers must adhere to specific requirements.
“To earn certification, (Barbari) bakers must sell each sack of flour to 32 people, with each transaction involving a different bank card.”
The reports also indicate that the sale of more than 10 Lavash bread to a single individual is prohibited.
Contradicting the measures, Mohammad Jalal, the economic adviser to the economy minister, asserted three days ago that "nothing has happened in the field of bread supply." He described the new measures as an effort to “organize the bread situation and prevent the smuggling of flour and bread. Bakers are now required to register the amount of bread sold and conduct transactions exclusively through bank cards.”
However, an informed source confirmed a reduction in the flour quota provided by the government and bread rationing in specific areas, hinting at a potential review of plans to review subsidies and increase prices.
This contradicts earlier declarations by Iranian officials who categorized price hikes and rationing of traditional bread as red lines.
Introduced in April 2018 amid economic uncertainties triggered by former US President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran's national subsidy aimed to stabilize prices for essential goods.
As the national currency faced a significant decline, the government, led by President Hassan Rouhani, provided cheap dollars to importers, particularly for vital commodities like flour.
On May 1, 2022, the parliament, despite warnings of increased inflation, approved the government's decision to eliminate the annual $10-14 billion subsidy for essential food and medicine. The move, coupled with an existing inflation rate of around 40 percent, resulted in a ten-fold increase in the price of flour.
To mitigate the impact on citizens, President Ebrahim Raisi's administration introduced a "smart plan" for the continued subsidy of bread. The government issued digital cards tied to specific purchases, aiming to prevent the smuggling of subsidized flour and bread to neighboring countries where they could be sold at significantly higher prices.
However, bakers have raised concerns about the ration card system, citing disruptions in trade during internet outages and delays in government reimbursement for subsidized bread. The challenges faced by bakers have highlighted issues with the implementation of the new system.
The substantial surge in flour prices, following the removal of subsidies, has had a ripple effect on various other goods, including pasta, biscuits, and cakes. These price increases have affected consumers, particularly those in vulnerable economic conditions. Additionally, bakeries offering non-traditional loaf breads operate at unsubsidized prices, creating disparities in the cost of different bread varieties.
In spite of this and in the face of global sanctions, Iran continues to pour billions of dollars' worth of funding into its regional proxies and the domestic military budget, while the nation faces crippling economic turmoil.
Palestinian groups alone such as Gaza based Hamas, have been found to receive around $100m annually, according to US government evidence. Larger proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, receive much more.