Iran's President Struggles To Define His Discourse And End Impasse

Although no announcement could be found on CFR’s website, a member of the Council, Iranian Jewish well-known writer Roya Hakakian wrote a post on X sharing information that she was invited to the meeting but turned down the invitation. Iran International wrote to the Council on Foreign Relations asking for clarification but has not received a response at the time of this publication.

The date of the meeting is not clear, but Raisi will attend the United Nation’s annual General Assembly taking place in New York City from September 18-26.

Hakakian replied to the invitation saying, “Thank you for this invitation, which, I'm afraid, I must decline. While I am an absolutist when it comes to the value of dialogue, I see the presence of Ebrahim Raisi at the Council on Foreign Relations as a political baptism for a man who has been implicated in countless crimes…”

Raisi, a hardline cleric, who is fully loyal to Iran’s authoritarian rule Ali Khamenei, was elected president in June 2021, in a vote that excluded all the main candidates by a decision of the Guardian Council, a constitutional body composed of Khamenei supporters which reviews candidate credentials. The review is an opaque process and reasons for rejecting a candidate are never transparent.

Before becoming a president by Khamenei’s anointment, Raisi spent almost four decades in the Islamic Republic’s notorious “Judiciary”, also controlled by Khamenei since the early 1990s. It was there in 1988 when he was appointed to a small and secret “death commission” that decided to execute thousands of political prisoners serving their sentences.

In an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes last September Raisi did not deny his involvement.

Young men and women belonging to opposition groups, some violent, were summarily tried without due process and up to 5,000 were killed in prisons.

“Dialogue is reserved for those with whom we have disagreements. For criminals like Raisi, the only venue for conversation must be a court of law,” Hakakian wrote to CFR.

But Hakakian and many other Iranian Americans are furious not just for Raisi’s culpability in one crime in 1988, but also for his role and responsibility as President during the Women, Life, Freedom protests that rocked Iran after Mahsa Amini’s death in hijab police custody last year.

As young people came into the streets to demand answers for her death, security forces armed with shotguns and military grade weapons began shooting them, a behavior that occurred repeatedly for months. The real death toll has not been announced but human rights groups have estimated that more than 500 civilians were killed, hundreds seriously injured and around 22,000 arrested. After hasty trials without due process, seven people were hanged and several face execution and the death penalty.

Raisi and his government have repeatedly said that the protests were riots instigated by the United States and have not held any law enforcement agent of official responsible. In December, he vowed “no mercy” in dealing with the protesters.

“As a proud naturalized American citizen, I cannot help but think that providing such a storied platform to such a man will be legitimizing him, and it is, therefore, an insult to the memory of the protestors who were, and are, fighting for democracy, and it is, therefore, profoundly unamerican,” Hakakian told the Council on Foreign Relations.

Raisi reiterated that the Islamic Republic of Iran is against any alterations to the region's borders, as Azerbaijan threatens Armenia's territory in the south.

He also expressed Iran's readiness as a neighboring power, claiming that Tehran can play a constructive role in preventing further conflicts and preserving the geopolitical stability of the region.

Raisi’s message, conveying this "resolute stance," was communicated through a tweet by Mohammad Jamshidi, the Political Deputy of the President's Office. The message highlighted cooperation with external entities, conducting joint military exercises, and engaging in suspicious travels outside the established 3+3 format are discouraged.

Jamshidi was probably referring to Armenia holding small military drills with the United States in NATO framework.

As tensions escalate between Armenia and Azerbaijan, reports originating from Iranian sources on social media indicate that Tehran has issued a stern warning to Baku, cautioning against potential military actions.

Numerous sources have suggested that Iran's diplomatic channels and high-level meetings have played a pivotal role in delivering a clear message to Azerbaijan, specifically discouraging any aggressive actions in the southern Syunik region of Armenia.

This warning follows recent reports hinting at Azerbaijan's military preparations in the Nagorno Karabakh region, which have raised concerns about potential military actions affecting both the enclave and Armenia. Iran has consistently opposed any Azerbaijani encroachments on Armenian territories.

President Ebrahim Raisi has been making speeches claiming to have controlled inflation and reduced money printing, promising that the 50-percent inflation rate will drop to 30 percent in March 2024.

However, a report by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) quoted by media in Tehran says that in April 2023 the money supply showed a 45-percent growth over the same time last year. Money in circulation reached a staggering 88,700,000 trillion rials or around $177.4 billion calculated based on the exchange rate of 500,000 rials per dollar.

This is the highest level of money in circulation in Iran’s history, fueled by the government’s borrowing from the CBI that inevitable leads to printing money without any foreign currency or gold backing.

The Islamic Republic has always been printing excess money in its 44-year history, but at different tempos. When oil export revenues were high enough to support government expenditures, less money was printed. However, when oil prices declined or Iran was subjected to oil export sanctions, printing increased and rial’s value suffered. Sometimes the rial remained relatively stable for a few years, such as the second half of the 2000s, when oil exports and prices were high.

In 1978 before the revolution, one US dollar bought 70 rials, compared with around 4,000 in early 2018, and 500,000 now.

The United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in May 2018 and imposed both oil export and international banking restrictions on Iran. That quickly translated into higher inflation and a hasty retreat of the rial. The process has only picked up speed in the past year, as the rial fell from 260,000 to 500,000 per dollar.

Other factors that have not allowed the oil wealth to boost the economy, which has had no growth since 2012, are an inefficient economic system and lack of foreign investments.

Estimates by Iranian economists indicate that 80 percent of the economy is controlled by the government, which controls banking, automakers, and the energy sectors, among many others. Political appointment of managers, nepotism, government interference and bad planning have led to inefficiency.

These factors in addition to international and US sanctions due to Iran’s confrontational foreign policy have prevented any meaningful volumes of foreign investment. This has left the economy mainly dependent on oil export revenues and more vulnerable to sanctions or low energy prices. Lack of investments have even damaged production in the oil and natural gas sectors, with less than one-tenth of investments compared to Saudi Arabia, and little technology infusion. Saudi Arabia’s Aramco energy company has been investing hundreds of billion dollars over the past two decades, with annual investments reaching a staggering $40-50 billion recently.

However, Iran's oil exports have been increasing and reached almost pre-sanctions levels in August, but the additional shipments so far have not translated into a financial improvement, lower inflation and a higher rate for rial.

According to a July report in Aftab News website, affiliated with Iran’s reformists, the government borrowed around $12 billion from four major quasi-private banks in three months ending June 21. To ensure availability of funds, it issued directives to these banks to reduce lending to the private sector, causing the loss of 500,000 jobs amid an already serious economic crisis.

These banks, which already face cash flow problems, rely on the central bank to replenish their reserves, Therefore, whether the government directly borrows from the CBI or from other banks, the money supply increases.

Scotland Yard disclosed that Khalife had been taken into custody in the Chiswick area, located approximately four miles away from Wandsworth prison, where he had managed to escape on Wednesday morning.

Presently, Khalife remains in police custody, facing a range of charges including espionage on behalf of an undisclosed enemy state, suspected to be Iran, as well as the acquisition of information with the potential to aid acts of terrorism and a conspiracy to orchestrate a false bomb threat.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak expressed his satisfaction with Khalife's arrest and offered commendations to both law enforcement officers and the public for their unwavering dedication in locating the fugitive. Speaking at the G20 summit in Delhi, the Prime Minister also revealed the initiation of an inquiry by the justice secretary into the circumstances surrounding Khalife's escape, emphasizing that this investigation would persist.

On Friday, the police officially confirmed that Khalife had been observed emerging from beneath a lorry at Wandsworth Roundabout shortly after his escape. In a bid to facilitate his capture, authorities had issued a reward of up to £20,000 for information leading to his arrest.

Daniel Abed Khalife embarked on his military career in 2019, stationed at MoD Stafford, also known as Beacon Barracks, prior to his disappearance on January 2. The incident was linked to an alleged bomb hoax. Subsequent court proceedings at Westminster Magistrates' Court unveiled allegations of Khalife planting mock explosive devices with the intent of inducing fear.

It described the Iranian regime's systematic use of sexual violence with the aim of "instilling fear, shame, and silence" in victims as reprehensible.

The US Department of State, in a post on its Persian-language page on the X social media network on Friday, wrote: "The use of sexual violence by the Iranian authorities further demonstrates the courage of Iranians against such reprehensible actions aimed at intimidating them."

This department emphasized Washington's commitment to continue supporting the fundamental rights and freedoms of the Iranian people and collaborating with allies and partners to hold human rights violators accountable.

Maroufian, a detained journalist in Evin Prison, announced in an audio file released on Thursday that she had been sexually assaulted during her detention. She also stated that she had gone on a hunger strike in protest to the suffering imposed on her and other women by the government.

This journalist, who had recently been released on bail, was rearrested August 30 in a violent manner.

She began a hunger strike in Evin Prison last week, demanding unconditional release and the restoration of her dignity, as well as punishment for the officials who had beaten her during her detention.

However, Mizan News Agency, affiliated with the Iranian judiciary, dismissed Maroufian’s disclosure as a "claim" and stated that she and her lawyer had not registered any complaint in this regard.

The Iranian government routinely denies reports about torture, harassment, or sexual assault on prisoners and has not addressed the disclosure or complaints of women and men in custody in this regard.