Economic Strain Leads To Apathy Among Iranian Voters
A former labor minister and leader of one of Iran's leftist Islamist groups has said the all-conservative government has failed to reach its economic objectives.
A former labor minister and leader of one of Iran's leftist Islamist groups has said the all-conservative government has failed to reach its economic objectives.
Mohammad Salamati, the head of the Islamic Revolution's Mojahedin Organization (IRMO), added in an interview with Rouydad24 website that the immense economic pressure on the people has made them politically indifferent. Salamati further attributed the government's failure to wrong policies as well as naivete and weakness of government managers.
Meanwhile, he called on the government and influential regime figures to pave the way for political participation rather than restricting people's choices before it is too late.
Salamati went on to say that the people are currently facing high inflation, unemployment and social restrictions including the government's heavy-handed control of the Internet and information dissemination. This, he said, has eroded people's hope and made them indifferent and reluctant to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections in March.
"The Guardian Council’s vetting of the candidates and its discretionary supervision of the election has made the people certain that the vote is not going to change anything in Iran. It appears that a large part of those who hold political power in Iran do not believe in people's participation in determining their own fate," Salamati said. He was referring to mass disqualification of more moderate candidates in 2020 and 2021 elections.
"Salamati added that "Only a competitive, free and fair election can restore people's trust in the government. It is only in that case, and with an improvement in the people's livelihood that they may be encouraged to participate in the elections." However, he said that "hard-headed officials are not capable of doing that."
Meanwhile, in a report about Iran's economic situation, Khabar Online website wrote last week that "The Raisi administration has failed to control the inflation rate and quoted an economist as saying that chronic high inflation will lead to the gradual deterioration of the country's infrastructures."
Iranian economist Mohammad Salimi Boroujeni told Khabar Online that the situation has left many businessmen with no motivation and reversed many conventional economic mechanisms.
The website wrote that Raisi’s promises about reducing the inflation rate to single digits have led to no tangible results and currently the inflation rate is around 47.5 percent at the start of the third year of Raisi's presidency.
However, some officials, including Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi even claim that the administration is ahead of its plans in controlling inflation and liquidity growth. He also promised that by March 2024, the inflation rate in Iran will be at its lowest point in five years.
At the same time, economic experts have told Khabar Online that Khandouzi's statement is contrary to what they see in terms of the people's livelihood and their purchasing power.
Boroujeni told the website that inflation has risen and the economic crisis has further deepened although the price of oil has remained stable, and officials claimed that the government's oil income is at a desirable level adding that according to them Tehran receives the oil money in cash.
The economist added that the government's handling of the economy has reduced people's purchasing power, increased poverty and inequality and damaged growth and production in the country.
Nonetheless, he said that the government is likely to come up with a bigger budget deficit by the end of the year. However, he added that financial discipline, a reduction in the government's expenses and wasteful activities, as well as increased transparency about the its financial operations can restore people's trust in the regime.
“Efforts and negotiations are currently in progress to lift the sanctions, which are proceeding properly as they should. However, it is equally important to simultaneously pursue the path of neutralizing sanctions, with the most crucial indicator being the reduction of inflation,” Khamenei maintained.
‘Neutralizing sanctions’ is the terminology used by the Islamic Republic for referring to evading restrictions, for example by illicit oil exports or conducting banking transactions through front companies and intermediaries.
Khamenei’s reference to ongoing talks follows a deal announced earlier this month, whereby the United States agreed to unblock $6 billion of frozen in South Korea in exchange for the eventual release of five US citizens held hostage in Tehran. In June, the US had also agreed to release $2.7 billion from Iraqi banks.
Many observers suspect that the Biden administration has reached an unofficial, partial deal with the Islamic Republic to release nearly $20 billion in total and not enforce oil export sanctions if Tehran stops its uranium enrichment at 60 percent, which is just short of weapons-grade material.
This in effect leaves Iran in a stronger position, able to extract more concessions by threatening to breach an unwritten deal in the future.
Having endorsed the ongoing talks, Khamenei immediately cautioned against a pro-Western outlook, saying those who see interaction with the world in “warm and intimate relations with a few Western countries” are making a mistake. “This outlook is wrong and relates to 100 years ago when a few European states controlled the world. Today, we should dispose of this old and reactionary outlook and understand that having global ties means relations with Africa, Latin America and Asia who have immense natural and human resources.”
Interestingly, Khamenei did not repeat his “Looking East” catchphrase, which means close ties with China and Russia with referring to Latin America and Africa. Sensing that amid sanctions and international economic isolation, Iranians blame the regime for their hardships, Khamenei and his subordinates claim that they are ready to extend a hand of friendship to many countries, with a few exceptions – namely Israel and the United States.
In fact, Khamenei praised the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi for having made progress in forging better ties with neighboring countries. In March, apparently urged by China, the Islamic Republic restored ties with Saudi Arabia after a seven-year hiatus.
What the aging Iranian ruler seems not to understand is that most wealthy and technologically advanced countries and large corporations take the US sanctions and Iran’s authoritarian political and economic conditions into account when making major trade or investment decisions.
Iran’s close allies are Syria and Venezuela, which rely on Tehran’s assistance, and Russia which itself is under heavy sanctions.
Khamenei also tried to defend the Raisi administration’s record, by praising the government’s rosy economic statistics and “successes” that most experts and many regime politicians in Iran reject as political propaganda. Even many loyalist conservatives dispute the administration’s claims of having reduced inflation and boosted production, as annual inflation is well over 50 percent and the national currency is near its all-time lows, trading around 500,000 rials per US dollar.