Iranian Officials Continue Sending Contradictory Signals

Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, and a diplomat with long experience in the Middle East argued in an op-ed published June 23 that if reports about a new limited deal with Iran are true, the Biden administration might be changing its approach.

The deal reportedly hinges on the premise that Iran keeps its highly enriched uranium, practically making it a nuclear threshold state that could quickly decide to produce a weapon.

“Instead of seeking to prevent Iran from going nuclear as it has up until now, the United States would be tacitly shifting to a policy of accepting Iran’s nuclear status and relying on deterrence. It would be shifting from a policy of prevention to a policy of containment,” Ross argued.

He further reasoned that “Such a posture would all but guarantee nuclear proliferation across the Middle East,” where Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt may decide to obtain nuclear weapons.

“The Biden administration must therefore structure any forthcoming deal with prevention — not containment — as its goal,” Ross said advocating that first, a deal limited to the end of Biden’s first term. Second, the US should make it clear that if Iran moves toward producing a weapon it will destroy all its nuclear infrastructure.

Third, the US “should conduct exercises in the region rehearsing attacks against hardened targets to underline its seriousness,” Ross underlines.

In a televised interview aired by the state broadcaster IRIB Wednesday evening, Gholamreza Mohseni-Ejei said he and the organizations under his supervision would never shut their eyes to corruption and infringements of the law, and in some cases their actions have upset the government of President Ebrahim Raisi and caused complaints. 

No mention was made, by Ejei or the interviewer of corruption cases including a new scandal that involves the family of the head of the State Endowment Organization Mehdi Khamoushi, a Khamenei appointee. 

Critics often allege that IRIB interviews with top state officials are scripted, and interviewers always refrain from challenging the interviewees. 

Hardliner whistle-blower Vahid Ashtari revealed in a series of tweets on June 18 that a 150-hectare piece of land endowed by a local family in Qazvin including a farm with 1,000 cattle has been rented out to Mona Chaychian, Khamoushi’s daughter-in-law, at a monthly rent of 10m rials (around $20 at current exchange rates). 

Ashtari who dubbed the case as “Daughter-in-Law Favoritism in Endowment Organization” pointed out in his tweets that young couples are unable to rent a basement in the outskirts of the city of Qazvin with the same amount of money as a point of comparison.

“The Endowments [Organization has officially turned into the back yard of corruption [-mongers],” he wrote.

The Organization has confirmed the deal but claimed that Khamoushi was not involved in it and threatened to sue the whistle-blower. 

Ashtari is a member of Edalat Khahan (Justice Seekers), a political group of mainly university students who are loyal to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and are also close to former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili who ran against Raisi. 

Gholam-Ali Jafarzadeh, an outspoken former lawmaker, said Wednesday he was barred from running in the previous parliamentary elections because he had been investigating allegations of corruption in the Endowment Organization. 

But no one is sure if there is a political agenda behind the revelations by the hardliner group. 

In April 2022, Ashtari’s revelations sparked the Layette-gate scandal that led to calls for the resignation of Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and resurfacing of other alleged corruption cases against his family.

Ashtari revealed that Ghalibaf’s wife, daughter and son-in-law had returned from Turkey with massive extra luggage including a baby bed and stroller that formed part of the layette for his yet unborn grandchild. 

Critics accused Ghalibaf of hypocrisy for admonishing others for luxury and telling Iranians they should support domestically made products, and telling those who are suffering economic hardships to be patient, when his own family travels abroad to buy luxury products.

Some hardliners claimed that Jalili and the ultra-hardliner Paydari Front were behind the scandal. They also said these political rivals wanted to oust the speaker and takeover the Parliament's presidium. 

Ashtari has been sentenced to two years in prison and deprivation from media and social media activity for his role in “Layette Gate” but has apparently appealed the sentence. 

Hossein Taeb said Thursday that the US sent the message through three neighboring countries of Iraq, Qatar and Oman, saying that it is not looking to overthrow the regime "so let's negotiate and reach an understanding.”

Taeb, who now serves as an advisor to the Guards commander-in-chief, claimed that Washington’s volte-face is the result of the “stability” of the Islamic Republic.

“In the hybrid warfare the enemies launched against our country last year, they intended to put Iran at the crossroads of continuing its revolutionary path or facing international isolation," he said, boasting that they failed.

“Friends and foes have understood that they need to interact with the Islamic Republic,” he added.

In the Islamic Republic jargon, ‘enemies’ usually means the United States and Israel, and recently every entity and individual who has expressed support for antiregime protests ignited by the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September 2022.

It has been the boldest uprising against the Islamic Republic since establishment in 1979 when the regime adopted a staunch anti-West and anti Israel foreign policy, and domination of the region.

Taeb added that the US presence in the Middle East is weakening partly due to the war in Ukraine and many countries are choosing a more independent path.

He claimed that, nevertheless, the enemies attempt to create “an all-encompassing riot before the upcoming elections aimed at boycotting and postponing the elections under various pretexts.” He was referring to Iran's parliamentary elections in March 2024.

On Thursday 33 US senators joined to introduce the Iran Sanctions Relief Review Act (ISRRA – S.488) to “make it abundantly clear to the Biden Administration that any agreement made with Iran that involves sanctions relief must be submitted for Congressional review,” said Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn) who leads the effort.

When in 2015 the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal with Iran was concluded, the Obama administration seeing serious opposition in Congress decided not to make it a treaty requiring Senate approval. As a tactic to reduce opposition, Obama agreed to the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review ACT (INARA) to allow Congress to oversee future dealings with Tehran, especially any reduction in sanctions.

As all signs point to indirect and even direct talks with the Islamic Republic emerge, many in Congress fear that the Biden administration is moving toward releasing Iran’s frozen funds in countries such as Iraq and South Korea, and possibly even sanctions in return for an Iranian pledge not to enrich uranium beyond 60 percent. Many lawmakers regard such a deal as harmful because Iran has already stockpiled enough enriched uranium to be able to quickly produce weapons-grade material if it decides to produce for nuclear weapons.

The Washington Free Beacon also reported on Thursday that Republicans in the House of Representatives are preparing to subpoena top Biden administration officials over the secret talks with Iran. The effort is led by the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the US Congress. The group intends to subpoena Iran envoy Robert Malley and White House national security aide Brett McGurk, both seen as key players in ongoing secret talks with the Islamic Republic.

At same time, more than 200 prominent Iranian Americans have written to Rep. Michael McCaul, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee asking him to subpoena US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley, who is deeply distrusted by Iranian activists and others opposed to the Iranian regime.

“We therefore implore you to subpoena Mr. Malley to provide, under oath and in a public hearing, a rundown of what has been agreed upon with the regime,” the letter asked Rep. McCaul, and added, “We consider access to and knowledge of this information to be unalienable right of the American people and our community, as our friends and families inside Iran suffer under the tyranny and brutality of the Islamic Republic regime.”

Some prominent signatories were; Reza Behrouz, physician and Professor at the University of Texas ; Yass Alizadeh, Assistant Professor of Persian language and literature at New York University; Atlanta-based attorney Sasan Nematbakhsh; DC-based legal scholar Shima Bozorgi; Amin Sophiamehr, philosophy instructor from Indiana University and Sara Eshaghi of the California-based group, “Action for Iran.”

This week, a bipartisan group of 26 senators sent a letter to the White House expressing concern over reports that the administration is trying to reach a limited deal with Iran without Congressional oversight.

“It is imperative today that we strengthen our efforts to deter Iran from achieving nuclear weapons capability. We must make Iran understand, in no uncertain terms, that further advances in its nuclear program will be met with unified international action,” the 26 senators wrote to Biden.

“It is crucial for your administration to remain aligned with Congressional efforts related to Iran’s nuclear program and not agree to a pact that fails to achieve our nation’s critical interests,” the letter said.

Deputy Interior Minister for Political affairs who also chairs the ministry’s Election Supervisory Board for the upcoming parliamentary election in March, had issued a statement to bar lawmakers from intervening in executive affairs in their constituencies. 

The ministry's concern was mainly about interference with the election process by lawmakers who wish to be re-elected. Apart from the conflict of interest issue, another concern was undermining the prerogative of the executive branch.

More than 200 lawmakers tabled a motion Monday night to impeach the interior minister. This was a vehement threat, as calls for impeachment are usually signed by between 20 to 40 lawmakers. Vahidi was caught in a situation no minister would want to be in, particularly as Tuesday morning government ministers and President Ebrahim Raisi were going to the Majles to defend the nomination of a new agriculture minister.

The social media rumor mill pointed out early in the morning that the President and the Interior Minister will have to step back, otherwise the lawmakers will impeach the interior minister and will not give their vote of confidence to the new agriculture minister. This was probably what played out in the corridors of power in Iran: Another tempest in the teacup as the man in the street cannot care less about a government that has messed up the economy and a parliament that cannot hold the government to answer.

The Interior minister overruled his deputy's order practically allowing lawmakers to interfere in the hiring and firing of local government officials in order to control the election process. But the lawmakers were still not happy. They demanded the removal of the deputy interior minister. They further threatened that they will go ahead with the interior minister's impeachment if his deputy was not removed from his post until Saturday, the beginning day of new week in Iran. 

According to reformist daily Shargh, some lawmakers such as Shahryar Haidari said that the statement issued by the deputy interior minister was an insult to lawmakers. Others also made equally angry remarks partly to show their clout to potential voters in the next election. They also demanded an apology from the Raisi administration.

Others accused the interior ministry of undermining Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's order for cooperation between the Majles and the government. Nothing in Iranian political circles can be as damning as accusing someone of disobeying Khamenei. 

Etemad Online and other news sources in Iran pointed out that Vahidi's arrival at the Majles Tuesday morning caused an uproar among more than 200 of Iran's 290 lawmakers. Interestingly, they said they wanted to impeach Vahidi for his poor performance during the 2022 protests. Another interesting point was that although the Majles presidium usually objected to calls for impeachment, they were supportive of the angry lawmakers.

After a closed-door session, Vahidi promised to fire his deputy, but this does not necessarily mean that Gholamreza will be dismissed. He is an IRGC general and enjoys support within the ranks of the corps. On the other hand, as far as the government is concerned, the MPs should not be emboldened beyond what they have achieved. 

By midday, the crisis appeared to be over. The lawmakers who have always been accused of being intimidated by the government shouted at Vahidi and restored their credibility in the eyes of their constituents. The government was happy to have won the lawmakers' vote of confidence for a new agriculture minister and Vahidi barely saved his pride by postponing his deputy's removal to a future date that may not happen. 

In the Iranian political circus, everyone is a winner until Khamenei's next speech when he chooses who is going to enjoy his support and who is going to be faced down.