Iran’s Nuclear Expansion: Gaining Leverage Or Part Of Wider Ambition?
As diplomats weigh whether Iran’s nuclear expansion is angling for greater leverage at the negotiating table or part of a wider plan, recent talks raise questions.
As diplomats weigh whether Iran’s nuclear expansion is angling for greater leverage at the negotiating table or part of a wider plan, recent talks raise questions.
The Financial Times reports that even if it is a negotiating tactic, the more advanced the program becomes, the more Tehran is expected to demand in return for reversing its gains.
That is why more media reports indicate a limited nuclear deal in the offing, with Iran to cap uranium enrichment at 60 percent while the United States gives some sanctions relief to Iran.
Henry Rome of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told the newspaper: “As they [Iran] accumulate more and more chips on the nuclear side, yes they could give some away, but it also moves them closer to what has arguably been the long-term goal — to be recognized as a nuclear threshold state.”
As Iran gets closer to its goals, pushing evermore the boundaries of agreed terms, the chances of a reverse look increasingly unlikely. “Once you’re there, it might be tough to argue to give that up,” Rome added.
Time is ticking with October approaching, the time when the nuclear deal, or JCPOA clauses that impose sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program expire. While the likes of the E3 (UK, France, Germany) and US scramble to makes things right, Iran shows no signs of abating.
The regime continues to sell weapons to Russia even after months of denial. New revelations reported by Israel’s ALMA research center show that it is a complex operation with no end in sight.
The Biden administration is trying its best to calm the situation, not least with the chances of a Trump return in 2024 -- or yet still, another Iran hawk - don’t look as unrealistic as many would hope.
Whether that be another destabilizing factor or a deterrent to Iran is yet to be seen as the regime becomes ever more emboldened in the wake of diplomatic victories such as its recent detente with Saudi Arabia.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Hossein Mousavian, a former senior Iranian official now at Princeton University, warns that if there is no deal there would be an escalation with Iran enriching at 90 percent, the west triggering snapback UN sanctions and Tehran suspending its membership of the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
He somehow believes Iran is ready to revive the JCPOA, or reach a deal in which Tehran reduces tensions and the US turns a blind eye to oil and petrochemical exports.
Though hard to believe given the extent of sanctions, Mousavian claims Iran expected to be set to benefit from a Russian war with Ukraine as oil and gas supplies became scarce. Hoping that would help secure a better deal, that, he says, led Iran to reject draft proposals last August.
What few analysts seem to be sufficiently aware of is Iran's worsening economic crisis, with inflation reaching 70 percent and the currency, rial, losing half its value in the past year. While Iran might be trying to use its nuclear escalation option, the United States has its foot on the regime's financial lifeline.
Moving forward, Mousavian seems to think as long as Khamenei is in power, the regime will not seek to develop a weapon. Its actions say otherwise. “If there’s a Trump school of thought, then everything would be terminated; plan A, plan B, the JCPOA, [everything] but coercion or war,” Mousavian says. “The response would be: go for nuclear to reach a deal.”
If the ageing supreme leader, now 84, were to be no more, “nobody knows what could happen after”, he said.
Amir-Abdollahian who arrived in Qatar Monday evening is accompanied by a delegation and will also visit Oman, another friendly regional country that has been a traditional mediator between Tehran and Washington.
Iranian government media had little to say about the foreign minister’s trip early on Tuesday, simply reporting on the meeting with the Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and saying that discussing international, regional and bilateral issues were the purpose of his visit to Qatar.
In recent weeks, both Iran and the United States have indicated that they are in indirect contact, although several media reports since January have also described direct talks between the US special envoy for Iran, Rob Malley and Iran’s ambassador at the United Nations, Saeed Iravani.
Israeli media and officials insist that already a limited agreement or a “mini-deal” has been worked out between Washington and Tehran aimed at stopping further Iranian uranium enrichment in exchange for US agreement to allow third countries to unfreeze Iranian funds and limited sanctions relief.
The US has denied these reports describing them as “inaccurate” or false, but earlier this month the Biden administration allowed Iraq to release more than $2.7 billion of money it owed to Iran for importing energy.
Although the administration insisted that the funds are earmarked for Iran to import food and medicines, the whole scheme is shrouded in mystery and it is not clear if Tehran would actually get its hands on cash US dollars, something Washington has tried to prevent since 2018 when it imposed economic sanctions.
Critics argue that any transfer of cash to the Iranian regime will bolster its ability to foment instability in the region. Some say that even financing its humanitarian needs will free up government funds for its military and proxy forces in the region.
The regime has been hosting leaders of Palestinian militant groups in Tehran and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei held a meeting with them.
Ziyad al-Nakhalah, the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), has been in Iran since last week, culminating in the arrival of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Monday.
The groups, both designated terrorist outfits by the European Union, the US, the UK, Canada, and Israel, have been receiving financial support from the Islamic Republic, presumably for wreaking havoc in Israel, or what the regime calls “resistance.”
Amir-Abdollahian’s trip to Qatar and Oman followed the visit of Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan to Tehran over the weekend after the two countries agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties in March after seven years of bitter animosity.
Although the détente with Saudi Arabia heralded an end to Iran’s isolation in the region, Riyadh has expectations from Tehran, the most important of which is security in the Persian Gulf region and an end to hostilities in Yemen.
"I would like to refer to the importance of cooperation between the two countries on regional security, especially the security of maritime navigation... and the importance of cooperation among all regional countries to ensure that it is free of weapons of mass destruction," Prince Faisal said during a press conference in Tehran.