Iran International congressional reporter
As Iran inches closer to military grade uranium enrichment, the question is what the Biden administration can actually do to reverse that?
“They are so far along now, I am not sure at this point they are stoppable,” said Senator John Thune (R-SD) on the sidelines of the Senate weekly bipartisan luncheon on Tuesday.
Being the Whip for the Republican Party in the Senate, he is known to be articulate and measured in his response but when asked about Biden administration policy on Iran, Senator Thune did not mince words.
“A lot of things should have been done earlier [by the Biden administration]. I think like a lot of other national security issues, this administration has been too late to the game and in many cases, they turned a blind eye or a deaf ear to the challenges they face out there,” he said.
Democrats in the Senate have been dismissive about the news of the near weapons grade enrichment by the clerical regime. Asked if Iran’s ability to enrich uranium at 84% purity concerns him, Senator Bernie Sander said it is does but did not elaborate.
Other democratic senators in US Capitol hallways this week were not so eager to talk about it. ”I think we made a big mistake during the previous administration by pulling out of the nuclear deal with Iran,” said Senator Tom Carper (D-DE). “If we remained in that deal, we would not be in this situation.”
Former President Donald Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) almost five years ago and the some Democrats have been sticking to some version of Senator Carper’s sentiments ever since. It sounds like an excuse and it might be a good one for the domestic audience, but it’s not a strategy, nor is it a policy.
The fact is that Iran’s gradual progress in enriching ever higher than what was agreed in the JCPOA has seriously worried the West and regional countries such as Israel and oil-producing Arab countries in Iran’s neighborhood..
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol surprised Americans in January when he said that if the US does not deploy back its tactical nukes to the peninsula, South Korea can “acquire its own nukes”.
Coincidentally, Saudi’s energy minister Prince Abuldaziz bin Salman on the same date told a group of attendees at a mining and industry conference in Riyadh that Saudi Arabia is planning to enrich its domestic stockpile of uranium to ensure that it will be able to “complete the entire fuel cycle.”
Enriching uranium to weapons grade is one thing, putting it in a warhead attached to a ballistic missile that is capable of delivering it to medium and long range targets in a matter of minutes, is another thing.
When asked if the US can realistically slow the Iranian ICBM delivery for nukes, Senator Bill Cassidy told Iran International: “I don’t know if they can stop the formation of a bomb, maybe the need is to stop them from being able to deliver it.”
Stopping Iran from its march towards weapons grade enrichment “exceeds what I know as to our capabilities,” he added.
That means the Republicans believe Iran’s nuclear program is anything but contained. If Iran moves to 90% enrichment capacity, then the million dollar question remains: who can stop the likes of Saudis and South Koreans from going down the same path?
US Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, Laura Holgate, in a statement issued at the quarterly board meeting of the agency said, “Iran must clarify this issue immediately. Whether intentional or inadvertent, Iran’s actions continue to intensify tensions and push unprecedented boundaries.”
In February reports emerged, later confirmed by the IAEA that uranium particles enriched to 84 percent were detected at Iran’s underground Fordow enrichment site. The agency’s director general Rafael Grossi visited Iran last weekend and held talks with officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi. A joint statement issued at the end of Grossi’s trip highlighted general commitments made by Tehran to increase its cooperation with the UN watchdog, pending further planning meetings.
As Grossi’s trip immediately preceded the IAEA board meeting, it is not possible for the international community to know about Iran’s intentions of allowing more monitoring access to the agency. Diplomats say that for this reason, Iran might not be censured at the meeting for its violations until the picture becomes clear before the June meeting of the board.
Ambassador Holgate underlined the importance of Grossi’s follow-up work with Tehran. “Should Iran follow through on its reported decision to take up certain transparency measures as conveyed to the Director General, it would be an encouraging sign, but we of course need to see if these steps are, in fact, implemented.”
Iran International’s correspondent in Vienna reported from the IAEA meeting that the agency seeks to interview personnel who were in charge of the enrichment machines when the 84-percent particles were produced. However, Iranian officials declared after Grossi left Tehran that no access will be given to the IAEA to speak with individuals.
State Department spokesperson Ned Price in his daily briefing on Tuesday reiterated Washington’s cautious welcome for Grossi’s agreements with Iran. Price said, “Now, the key point for us is that the joint statement between the IAEA and Iran was important. What will be much more important is the follow-through.”
The spokesperson also reiterated three demands the Biden administration has been underlining in recent weeks. “First, stop killing, stop suppressing your people; second, stop providing UAV technology to Russia; and third, release the wrongfully detained Americans that you have held.”
Talks with Tehran to revive the Obama-era nuclear accord known as JCPOA reached a deadlock last September and since then Washington has repeatedly said that it is not focused on the issue.
Despite its toughening position, critics of talks with Iran insist that the administration must come out and clearly say that the JCPOA is dead, but the White House insists it still thinks diplomacy is the best way to stop Iran’s nuclear program from reaching weaponization.
Many in Congress oppose negotiations with Iran that could result in suspending US sanctions and providing tens of billions of dollars in frozen funds to the Iranian regime.
Senator John Thune told Iran International’s correspondent Tuesday that “The Biden administration has in many cases turned a blind eye to some of the national security challenges we face. A nuclear Iran is certainly on top of that list.” He added that he is “not sure if Iran’s nuclear program is stoppable at this point.”
Rafael Grossi, IAEA's Director General, was invited by the Islamic Regime in a bid to show transparency, fighting the implications of bitter sanctions which are crippling the country's economy.
Grossi received commitments that the Islamic Republic will cooperate with the watchdog to resolve outstanding issues regarding monitoring and past activities but the pledges Iran made have yet to be worked out in any great detail. On Monday, Grossi announced in a press conference that he cannot guarantee any tangible changes or that greater transparency will result from his visit.
"We have our ideas and this will be part of the technical discussions that are going to be undertaken as a follow-up to my visit, and to the joint statement. And a technical team will be travelling to Iran very soon to do that," he said. "We will have to discuss...this, how do we do it," Grossi said on Monday, conceding that this and other issues would largely hinge on future technical talks.
His remarks were met with skepticism by the global community, seen as a walking back of the statements he had made only two days before (Saturday) in which Grossi told a news conference they had agreed to re-install extra monitoring equipment such as surveillance cameras, at nuclear sites that was put in place under Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with major powers, but then removed last year as the deal unravelled following the U.S. withdrawal in 2018.
AFP also quoted anonymous Western diplomats that there are no plans to censure the Islamic Republic at the board meeting.
The US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said he held low hopes to Iran's keeping its promises, given recent history. During his Monday briefing with reporters, he said: “Iran committed to take important steps and expressed a readiness to provide long overdue cooperation with the agency on the outstanding safeguards issues. We expect, most importantly, Iran to take prompt and concrete action in line with the joint statement. Too many times in the past we’ve seen Iran issue vague promises, only never to follow through.”
Iran has been repeatedly censured in the past two years by the IAEA Board of Governors consisting of 35 nations for its lack of cooperation with the international nuclear watchdog.
Prior to this week's meeting, it was disclosed that monitoring discovered particles of uranium enriched to 84-percent purity in Iran’s Fordow enrichment installation, and it was expected that a more stringent censure would be issued at the board meeting. But Grossi’s 11th hour trip to Tehran and pledges made by the Iranian side seem to have eliminated that possibility, for now.
Both Grossi and Price have also indicated that it will take weeks, if not months, until Iran’s real intentions can be judged. This means that the current board meeting might just adopt a wait-and-see approach and not issue a resolution.
This was most likely Tehran’s intention when they invited Grossi for talks at short notice, as Iran has faced increasing isolation internationally since September saw anti-regime protests sweep across the country. Brutal crackdowns have led to more than 500 Iranian civilians being killed in protests, sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, arrested by the morality police for not wearing her hijab properly.
Additionally, revelations of Iran's supplying kamikaze drones to Russia since September has induced further Western sanctions and dashed the hopes for the resumption of nuclear talks.
“When it comes to the meeting of the Board of Governors, of course Iran will be a topic at the Board of Governors," Price said in this week's briefing. "We’re engaged with our European allies, we’re also engaged with the IAEA itself, on the most effective means by which to see to it that Iran is held to the commitments that it has made."
One reporter asked Price about repeated statements by Iranian officials that they have been receiving messages from Washington about resuming JCPOA talks that reached a deadlock last September which Price dismissed, reiterating that for the Biden administration the talks are not a priority.
“I haven’t seen the full context of these remarks, but what I can tell you is that we have heard plenty of misleading statements and outright lies from Iranian officials over the course of weeks now. The JCPOA is not on the agenda; it has not been on the agenda for some time.”
The political editor of a leading reformist daily Etemad in Tehran, Sara Massoumi, noted that hours after a joint press conference by Grossi and Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami, the official website of President Ebrahim Raisi and all of Iran's news agencies deleted parts of what they had earlier published as Grossi's statement in the news conference.
In the deleted parts Grossi was quoted as having said, "We have had very constructive and positive meetings with Iranian officials," and "It is quite clear who should be blamed for the current situation of the JCPOA." Another deleted sentence blamed "sinister elements" for preventing IAEA's cooperation with the Islamic Republic.
On Sunday, foreign policy analyst Amir Ali Abolfath said in an interview with conservative Nameh News website that Iran should not pin its hopes on the visit, adding that "regardless of the success or failure of Grossi's trip, there is no bright outlook for the Islamic Republic's relations with the IAEA."
Abolfath noted that the IAEA is a UN body and various countries do not have equal weights at the United Nations particularly in the areas linked to security issues. He added that one cannot expect the IAEA to be satisfied about Iran's nuclear activities as long as tensions between Tehran and Washington are not reduced.
Meanwhile, former diplomat Fereydoun Majlesi pointed out in an interview with Khabar Online that "Iran's main problem is to have US sanctions lifted and not a visit to Tehran by Grossi." Majlesi also pointed out that Tehran should know that it cannot endlessly attack its adversaries without any repercussion.
He added that if the UN trigger mechanism or ‘snapback’ of international sanctions is activated, Iran will be in a difficult position and will have to reach out to foreign powers to solve its problems. Majlesi reiterated: "I have said many times in more than two years that the JCPOA is a burnt out case. Iran's problems are now about the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and other nuclear commitments. Leaving the NPT is extremely dangerous for Iran and might lead to snapback before the end of 2023.
Grossi's visit, he said was mainly about making matters clear after 84-percent enriched uranium was detected in Iran and Grossi wanted to warn Tehran that this requires more rigorous monitoring and inspection of its nuclear activity.
Meanwhile, the editor of hardline daily Kayhan Hossein Shariatmadari wrote in a commentary on Sunday that Grossi's visit to Tehran was unnecessary and accused the IAEA chief of reporting back to Israel. He said Grossi will inform Israel before anyone else of the outcome of his visit.
In another development, the former chairman of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh said in an interview with Etemad Online that Iran's Foreign Ministry is incapable of handling nuclear negotiations with JCPOA partners, and the matter should be handed over to the Supreme Council of National Security, a body closely linked to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Falahatpisheh said that the Foreign Ministry has so far missed all the opportunities it had to settle the nuclear disputes and reach an agreement with the United States and Europe.
He also said in another interview with Rouydad24 that the JCPOA should be removed from the gambling table of world powers and from the political rivalries between various political factions in Iran.