Reformist Figures Shun Regime Change Fearing ‘Uncertainty’
Leading reformist figures in Iran have recently made statements that reveals their interest in preserving the status quo despite popular protests aimed at changing the political system.
Leading reformist figures in Iran have recently made statements that reveals their interest in preserving the status quo despite popular protests aimed at changing the political system.
In several articles over the past weeks, reformist commentators expressed concern that the situation is going toward a revolution while they claimed the nation wanted only to reform the system and warned that a dramatic change may lead to undesirable uncertainty.
On November 14, two reform figures, former President Mohammad Khatami and former vice president Massoumeh Ebtekar broke their silence after more than 8 weeks about a possible demise of the regime and voiced their opposition to dramatic changes in the Iranian political system.
Khatami, revealed his opposition to regime change by saying that it was "neither possible, nor desirable." Nonetheless, he warned that if the current state of affairs continues, the ground is paved for a looming social collapse.
Khatami called on the regime "to reform itself," but at the same time acknowledged that "a large part of the society shares the protesters' dissatisfaction" of the current political system.
On the same day, Ebtekar said in a commentary in the reformist daily Etemad in Tehran, "The new generation of Iranians believes it is not only the Iranian government, but the entire Iranian political system that is inefficient."
She added, "The Iranian government has been lagging behind the society for several years now. By not recognizing natural social developments, the Iranian government has created the current crisis for itself."
Ebtekar said elsewhere in her commentary: "the Iranian state television and other organizations with hefty government budgets which are responsible for keeping the public informed have failed to listen to young Iranians and their demands." She added that "Unfortunately, many religious and propaganda organizations deny the pluralism that exists in Iranian society and wish to dictate whatever that serves their interests."
The new generation that has grown up with the Internet and social media, believes to be a citizen of the world and cannot tolerate the traditional guidelines, Ebtekar said, adding that this has created a generational gap in Iran.
In an article carried by Etemad newspaper, Iranian American author and sociologist Asef Bayat wrote in a response to reformist commentator Abbas Abdi who had opposed regime change and expressed concern that the current protests might lead to a tragic end for Iranian society, "The tragedy of reformism in Iran is that Iranian reformists cannot further any reforms because they have been pushed out of the power circle, and at the same time they cannot agree with radical changes in Iran because by definition they are reformers and not revolutionaries."
Bayat wrote that "individuals like Abdi fear the cost of a revolution. They fear violence, instability and damage to the country's infrastructure. Ordinary people are also afraid of the cost of a revolution, but they risk everything when they see that all roads to reform are blocked.
"However, some people talk about the risks involved in a revolution as though the current situation is risk-free like a paradise," Bayat said adding that the costs of the current situation include an average 20 percent inflation, high unemployment particularly among educated Iranians, high recession in the 2010s, the collapse of the middle class and pushing 45 percent of the population under the poverty line, destruction of the country's environment and many of its villages, and the decline of Iranians' status in the world because of the government's adventurist policies.
Bayat argued that Mahsa Amini, the young woman murdered in custody of morality police, the workers in Assalouyeh oil and gas fields and millions of Iranian men and women are being constantly humiliated, losing their hopes and their lives. But those who have chosen not to submit to this gradual death have taken collective action to change the status quo.
“Molavi Abdolhamid made the greatest mistake if he met with Khamenei’s envoy. It’s totally unacceptable,” one of the many who criticized Abdolhamid for meeting with Mohammad-Javad Haj-Aliakbari tweeted before local sources confirmed that the meeting had taken place.
“Tell him they [security forces] were busy arresting Baluchis while he was speaking with Khamenei’s envoy. They killed two people for no reason just yesterday,” another twitterati retorted.
Molavi Abdolhamid, the leader of Iran’s largely Sunni Baluch population in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan and other local Sunni leaders met with Haj-Aliakbari and his accompanying delegation at the private residence of a local community leader in Zahedan Sunday.
State media said Haj-Ali Akbari was carrying “Supreme Leader’s greetings to the people of Sistan and Baluchestan” and to let them know that the recent events in the province have “saddened and upset him”.
However, what some media in Tehran reported about Haj-Ali Akbari’s statements, showed that his remarks had double meaning. At the same time that he spoke about resolving misunderstandings, he also said that he delivered “serious messages to Some” to be careful about their behavior.
Abdolhamid has strongly criticized the authorities and said he holds Khamenei responsible for the violence against Sunni Baluchis and other protesters.
Haj Aliakbari who is one of Tehran’s interim Friday imams also heads the Policymaking Council of Prayer Leaders which sets the agenda for state-sponsored Friday sermons across the country.
Amnesty International said on November 10 it had recorded the names of at least 100 protesters and bystanders including sixteen children who were killed by security forces in Sistan and Baluchestan Province since September 30 but believes the real number is much higher.
Official media say four Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) forces as well as 35 protesters and bystanders were killed in Zahedan on September 30.
According to his official website, Abdolhamid said in the meeting with Khamenei’s envoy that the recent events were the outcome of “discrimination against the Sunni community”.
He added that on September 30, the deadliest day of the crackdown on protesters, security forces had fired live ammunition at peaceful protesters in Zahedan and insisted that the attack was unprovoked. Protesters who threw stones at a police station before they were shot did not intend to seize the station and there were no militants amongst them as claimed by the authorities, he said.
The IRGC-linked media called the killing of protesters in Zahedan, widely referred to as “Bloody Friday” on social media, “a terrorist plot” and blamed Jaish ul-Adl Salafi jihadist group, but the group denied any responsibility.
“If these claims were true at least several security forces would have been killed or wounded [during the September 30 crackdown]. But around 100 ordinary people were shot dead inside the prayer grounds and the bullets mainly hit their heads and chests.”
He also pointed out that security forces had fired live ammunition at protesters who were pelting the local governor’s office in Khash, another city in the Baluch part of the province on November 4.At least 18 protesters and bystanders, including two children, were killed in Khash.
Referring to security forces killed in the restive province in the past few weeks, Haj-Aliakbari lauded “security-defending martyrs” in his meeting with Abolhamid and other local leaders but also said Khamenei considers the locals who were killed “innocently, as a result of human error, or in other ways” as “martyrs”.
Khamenei’s envoy also said those arrested “whose crimes were small” will soon be pardoned by Khamenei but others will be dealt with “justly and decisively … so that such incidents won’t happen again” and blamed “those outside the country” for taking advantage of the situation in the restive province and accusing the people of the province of “separatism”.