Tehran Should Change Its Posture, Government Analyst Suggests

Mojtaba Ferdowsipur, who is the director of West Asian Studies Group at the Iranian Foreign Ministry's Political and International Studies Center, has said in an interview with moderate conservative website Khabar Online on Wednesday, June 29, that in view of recent global developments and Iran's potentials, "the Islamic Republic should replace its offensive positions with defensive postures."

He said that one of the consequences of the war in Ukraine is its impact on energy supply in the world, and this has affected US President Joe Biden’s approach to the Middle east and energy issues, with adopting a realistic view toward West Asia with an eye on the significance of the region's oil reserves.

"One of the reasons for Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia is that the United States needs that country's oil. An increase in Saudi Arabia's oil output will lead to a reduction of prices in the international oil markets. This can largely prevent an energy crisis in the United States," Ferdowsipur said, adding that "this can also affect the Democrats' popularity before the [midterm] elections."

At the same time, Israel wants to use Biden’s trip the region to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, and this would have big impact on geopolitics.

The analyst added that "as a result of the war in Ukraine, international coalitions are no longer based on cooperation. Instead, they are based on a combination of cooperation, cooperation and rivalry. As a result, interactions between Israel and Egypt or between Israel and Turkey are likely to be based on competitions and rivalries."

Although Ferdowsipur avoided explaining what it would mean for Iran to adopt a defensive posture, but the context of his remarks pointed to a foreign policy based on both cooperation and competition, instead of stark choices against or in support of different countries.

Ferdowsipur added that "relying on relations and cooperation with Iran's neighbors may not work for the country. We should adopt a policy of cooperation and competition based on geopolitics." He explained that "Iran should show its weight in in the region's geopolitical developments and make sure that its share from the corridors in the region is respected by others."

Ferdowsipur also pointed out that "If Russia has a 20-year contract with Iran, this does not mean that Moscow will not compete with Tehran in the region's geo-economy." He further explained that "Iran is likely to sustain losses if it does not rely on a combination of cooperation and competition. Thus, tying the country's interests to relations with a single countrywill not secure Iran's interests."

The best example of this occurs in matters relating to the JCPOA. As Iran is a country under sanctions, other countries might change track to evade secondary sanctions, he said.

The analyst maintained that Iran should try to benefit from the geopolitical changes by securing its share of regional corridors in Karabakh region and the North-South corridor Russians are currently using to transport their goods.