Iranian Nuclear Program Goes Up Another Notch

According to Khabar Online, this is a U-turn by Biden who has so far not been attaching importance to Washington's old allies in the region. It appears that both sides have deemed the current situation good for mending their relations.

Mohebali said in his interview with Khabar Online that the developments in Ukraine as well as the suspension of Iran's nuclear negotiations have played their parts in bringing back Washington to its old policy of close ties with Saudi Arabia. The result, said Mohebali, will be a coalition between the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia and other regional players.

During Biden's upcoming visit to the region, Israeli's will have a chance to convince Washington that returning to the JCPOA is meaningless and the US should exert more pressures on Iran, Mohebali said, while the United States could be able to convince Israel to refrain from provocative actions against Tehran.

As these concerns were being aired in Tehran, Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz told the Knesset on Monday that a regional air defense coalition is being formed with US leadership. The effort, he said, has already stopped some Iranian attacks.

This comes while the prospects for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal is becoming increasingly weaker, while Iran desperately needs to revive the JCPOA and have US sanctions lifted in a bid to improve its ailing economy.

A former member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Hshmatollah Falahatpisheh, told Nameh News in an interview on June 20, that Iran will certainly be the big loser if no nuclear deal is reached.

Meanwhile, referring to Iran's defiant reactions to the June 8 IAEA resolution that condemned Tehran's lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Falahatpisheh warned that "it is not the right time for Iran to stand against the IAEA. This will make Tehran's situation even worse."

Pointing out Tehran's weak position, Falahatpisheh said: "Once we could determine our own fate at the negotiating table, but now we have to wait and see what decisions are being made by lobbyists behind the scenes at the IAEA Board of Governors.

Explaining why Iran will be the loser if the negotiations are not fruitful, Falahatpisheh said: "All the agreements Iran signs with other countries, including long-term 20-year contracts, are being concluded under sanctions, so these cannot serve Iran's interests." He added that Iran missed all the chances for a rapprochement with the United States before the war in Ukraine. Now, all countries including Russia only think of their own interests."

He criticized Iranian officials' inaction in the current situation by saying, "It is as if they do not have a good understanding of the situation and do not see the weakening of Iran's currency on a daily basis. While prices are rising, the government increases taxes and redoubles the pressure on the people."

While Falahatpisheh stressed that the government should do away with slogans and take important political decisions to solve the country's problems. Meanwhile, lawmaker Somayeh Rafiei said in an interview with Rouydad24 on Monday: "The people can hardly tolerate the situation any longer…and they

are looking for results and the government needs to introduce essential changes."

"Even today, we are ready to return to Vienna to reach a good deal if Washington fulfils its commitments," foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said at his weekly televized news conference.

But a good deal for Iran means something very different from what the US says is possible. Year-long talks stalled in Vienna in March, reportedly because of Iran’s insistence to remove its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

The Biden Administration that came to office with a promise to restore the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, says that it is ready to lift nuclear-related sanctions imposed by its predecessor and does not want to discuss “extraneous issues,” meaning sanctions imposed by the Trump administration over support for terrorism or other violations by Iran and Iranian entities.

Washington says it has made its final proposal to Tehran and awaits its decision. Even the Russian negotiator in the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, says that 99 percent of all issues were resolved in Vienna before the negotiations stopped.

Middle East Eye reported on Sunday that Iran has dropped its demand for delisting the IRGC, “but has called for lifting of sanctions imposed by the US against Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters,” the economic empire of the IRGC, which itself is implicated in IRGC's terrorism role.

If such a proposal has indeed been made by Iran, it does not appear that Washington is ready to entertain it. Last week, the State Department once again rejected the introduction of issues “extraneous” to the JCPOA.

The administration’s diplomatic approach toward Iran has come under questioning by Republicans and some Democrats who believe no concessions should be made to Tehran. The White House has recently appeared a bit more confrontational with Iran, imposing new sanctions on companies and individuals accused of helping Tehran to circumvent US sanctions.

Iran’s nuclear policy and indeed foreign policy is under the full control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei whose important pillar of support is the IRGC amid popular discontent and constant protests.

Khatibzadeh speaking about the achievements of the foreign ministry on Monday said, “The foreign ministry dedicated efforts to the lifting of sanctions. The foreign ministry has been the instrument of higher entities.” The term ‘higher entities’, in the Islamic Republic jargon, usually refers to the Supreme Leader and governmental bodies he controls, such as the Supreme National Security Council.

Speaking about President Joe Biden’s upcoming trip to the region, Khatibzadeh warned the United States and other countries “not to fall in a path designed” by Israel, which is most concerned about Tehran’s nuclear program and has vowed to stop its possible weaponization at any cost.

Iran’s efforts to improve ties with regional Arab countries which are also concerned about its nuclear, military and foreign policies, have not made much progress.

Khatibzadeh, speaking about diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia, the dominant Sunni power in the region, said it would be premature for Iran and Saudi Arabia to speak of reopening their embassies in each other's capitals, after they cut relation in early 2016.

Saudi Arabia, which has had cool relations with the Biden Administration is expected to use the president’s trip to change that.

"It is too early to talk about the reopening of embassies by Tehran and Riyadh," Khatibzadeh said, signalling that Iran’s relative isolation will continue.

Hardliner Iranian politicians have been suggesting that Tehran should withdraw from the NPT and even the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers known as the JCPOA as retaliation for being snubbed by the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the IAEA on June 8.

Jalil Rahimi Jahanabadi, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee told Etemad Online website on Sunday [June 19] that the IAEA resolution does not carry any legal and political risks for Iran.

The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed the critical resolution after it determined that Iran has not cooperated in an investigation of its past nuclear activities.

So far, the government’s response to the IAEA was to disconnect many monitoring devices installed at its nuclear facilities by the UN watchdog, which in of itself was a significant move. But the noise about leaving the NPT has remained at the level of hardliner agitators and lawmakers.

One day before the vote on the resolution, a top hardliner in Iran, Hossein Shariatmadari, running the Kayhan Daily proposed leaving the NPT. He is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s appointee at the flagship ultra-conservative newspaper, and many interpret his remarks as those endorsed by Khamenei’s office.

When the resolution passed on June 8, a large group of lawmakers also proposed to leave the NPT and stop cooperation with IAEA nuclear inspections and monitoring.

Later it was also revealed that former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and Supreme Council of national Security Secretary Ali Shamkhani lashed out at ultraconservative Saeed Jalili after he voiced support at the Expediency Council for the idea of Tehran exiting the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

But others among the Islamic Republic political elite warn that a drastic move against the NPT or the IAEA can send Iran’s nuclear file to the UN Security Council, which could lead to the restoration of international economic sanctions against the country. Those sanctions imposed in late 2000s and early 2010s carried the weight of the Security Council and were lifted only after Iran agreed to the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA.

Jahanabadi, who appears to be one of the cautious politicians, tried to explain that the other lawmakers are making suggestions to the presidential administration, and it is not a process of forcing the executive to take steps on the issue of the NPT. He said that lawmakers are thinking to end voluntary cooperation with IAEA in the framework of the Additional Protocol and not within the NPT.

“Exiting the NPT for a country that has no intention to produce nuclear weapons, is not sensible,” he said. “Iran is not after inviting international challenges, and we should be aware that exiting the NPT will not solve any of our problems. Instead, it will provide an excuse for Westerners,” Jahanabadi added.”

He went on to say that Iran has no reason to go “from bad to worse”. If the IAEA shows no flexibility “exiting the NPT becomes an option, but we should not rush into these kinds of options now.”

Mehdi Motaharnia, told Didban Iran website on June 18 that threats coming particularly from the US Central Command (CENTCOM) in the region are no longer political in nature and can be characterized as military.

Speaking in the cryptic language of Iranian analysts, Motaharnia added that "these threats are coming through Israel's security tunnel." He added that Tel Aviv's moves are becoming increasingly elaborate and that they can change the situation in the region and push it toward a collision.

Motaharnia said indications show that a military confrontation is not only "possible" but "probable".

He argued that US President Joe Biden's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is meant to tackle the Arab-Israeli problem and bring about meaningful strategic changes, including bringing Saudi Arabia closer to Israel. All this, he said will have serious repercussions for Iran.

In fact, Israel this week called for a regional alliance against Iran under the aegis of the United States.

It could also lead to Iran's further isolation and create an anti-Iranian alliance. Motaharnia said that a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting will be also held during Biden's visit to the region, and this is likely to lead to a regional order against Tehran.

Meanwhile, the former editor of hardline daily Kayhan, Mehdi Nasiri also said on the same day that the Islamic Republic is moving toward a war.

Nasiri wrote in an article: "Evidence including the suspension of nuclear negotiations in Vienna and the escalation of tensions between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) might indicate that the Islamic Republic is interested in war and such a war is likely to start."

Nasiri added: "If such a war starts, it could lead to major humanitarian and economic catastrophe for Iranians who still have not recovered from the scars of the 8-year war with Iraq in the 1980s."

Nasiri warned Islamic Republic officials that this war is in contradiction with Iran's national interests and that they have no right to impose such a conflict on the people even if they believe it would be an anti-imperialist move. "They have no right to start a war based on ideological and religious justifications without first seeking the consent of the Iranian people."

In a blunt statement by someone living in Iran he said: "While clerics and others in the government are living an aristocratic life, they have no right to impose war and aggression on the people and bring about poverty and misery with the pretext of resistance."

Nasiri added that if leaders believe most Iranians support an aggressive and belligerent foreign policy, they should prove this by holding a referendum.

The warnings about the Islamic Republic's interest in a probable war come while according to a report published by reformist daily Sharq, there is no consensus among Iranian and US officials whether "an agreement is within reach," or all the chances for a deal have been lost.

The report said that the realities on the ground point to the fact that currently there is no chance for a deal, adding that during the past 10 days since the IAEA Board of Governors condemned Iran's lack of cooperation with the agency and Iran’s reaction to the IAEA resolution have been discouraging. The report stressed that chances for an agreement have been practically reduced to nil.

Sharq's report said, "The nuclear agreement (JCPOA) is dead, but the Raisi administration lacks the courage to bury it."

In a phone conversation with European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Saturday, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said “in order to reach a good and lasting agreement, it is necessary for the other side to give up its double standards and contradictory behavior."

He added that the Islamic Republic still believes that "diplomacy is the best and most appropriate" solution to the outstanding issues on the revival of the deal,” reiterating that "Iran has never distanced itself from the negotiating table.”

“If the United States wants to continue its unconstructive behavior, it will face our proportionate response," Amir-Abdollahian emphasized.

The resolution called on Iran to engage with the IAEA without delay and expressed “profound concern” at Iran’s failure to satisfy the agency over traces of uranium found at three undeclared sites and highlighted earlier in June in a report by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.

The resolution came as year-long talks paused since March between Iran and five world powers aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Following the resolution, Iran retaliated, telling the IAEA it plans to remove more monitoring equipment, but intends to maintain a basic level of monitoring and inspectors’ access as required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).