US Official Says Iran Has Eased Stance But Time Short For Nuclear Deal

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian met his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani in Tehran Thursday morning, sparking suggestions in domestic and foreign media that Doha was working for direct US-Iran talks to help revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

In a note headlined "Mistaken Interpretation Of Iran, Qatar Foreign Ministers' Visit," IRNA reported “good and close relations” with Qatar but said “speculation” over “direct talks with the US in Vienna,” where multilateral talks to revive the 2015 deal, had “fueled some misconceptions about the nature of the visit.”

The visit was announced Wednesday, two days after two calls between the two foreign ministers. "Two phone calls can be made when relations are close, developments fast, and the issue at hand important," tweeted Hamidreza Dehghani, Iran’s ambassador to Doha.

The IRNA note, published before the Tehran meeting, reiterated Iran’s stance that the central issue in reviving the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), was the US need to “return to its commitments” under the agreement, which Washington left in 2018 while imposing ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions.

The note stressed that until this happened a US “presence in the meetings of the Joint Committee [of remaining JCPOA members]” in Vienna would be “irrelevant,” and that “the key to solving the problem is [the US] returning to all commitments under the JCPOA, not mediation.”

IRNA went on to note both that some politicians in Iran had been arguing for direct US talks and that Qatari officials had not refuted speculation about mediation as "they want to gain credit" from posing as a mediator. With the meeting between Amir-Abdollahian and al-Thani focused on “regional” issues, IRNA observed, "Qatar's capabilities and record in this regard [mediation] do not confirm such an interpretation."

Among such regional issues are rising tensions over the United Arab Emirates role in the Yemen war, and recent Ansar Allah, or Houthi, missile attacks in the UAE.

But Qatar's emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani is due to meet US President Joe Biden January 31, where restoring the JCPOA is likely to be discussed. Doha has called on both the US and Iran to respect the terms of the deal.

While Tehran has refused direct talks with the US since Washington left the JCPOA, and has insisted that the Vienna negotiations, which began in April, should remain formally within JCPOA structures with the US taking part indirectly, there have been recent signs that with Vienna process at a crucial point Tehran is reconsidering.

Talks remain controversial

Amir-Abdollahian said Monday that the possibility of bilateral talks with the US would not be "overlooked" if a "good deal with strong guarantees" was within reach. Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), also raised the possibility in a tweet Tuesday. President Ebrahim Raisi in a TV interview Tuesday also appeared open, if hesitant, over the prospect.

But such talks remain controversial. The flagship hardliner newspaper Kayhan Tuesday criticized Amir-Abdollahian and Shamkhani, demanding an explanation.

Abdollah Ganji, chief editor of the principlist Jahan newspaper, has preferred to insist that any talks with the US should be bilateral and not within JCPOA structures.

While Raisi has continued approach of former president Hassan Rouhani over US participation in Vienna, some Iranian reformists have been recently pushed for direct US talks as the best way to have ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions lifted.

Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who endorsed two years of talks with the US leading up to the JCPOA in 2015 and earlier over Afghanistan and Iran, said in January that “negotiations with the enemy at a certain juncture does not necessarily mean surrender."

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abodllahian first hinted at the possibility on Monday and Supreme Council of National Security chief Ali Shamkhani echoed the same idea on Tuesday.

The exceptions were the hardliner Kayhan which is linked to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office and ultraconservative Vatan Emrooz, a Paydari Party mouthpiece, which is the dominant hardliner group in the parliament.

The kayhan harshly criticized Amir-Abodollahian and Shamkhani for their support for direct talks with the Washington.

Last week, Kayhan and IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency had lashed out at Amir-Abdollahian for his support for a balanced foreign policy which meant having ties with the United States as well as Russia and China.

Vatan Emrooz totally had ignored the development while IRGC daily Javan avoided criticizing the foreign minister and the change was noticed by many social media activists in Iran.

The idea of direct talks was most recently brought up by US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley who responded to the Iranian side's call for a guarantee that future US governments will not pull out of a nuclear deal with Iran. Malley suggested that major US companies can be prompted to invest in Iran and in that case, they will prevent a US pull out from a new agreement.

Nonetheless, it was Khamenei himself who first mentioned the possibility of direct talks with the United States in a January 9 speech in which he showed the first public sign of his readiness for a compromise on the nuclear deal. His move was similar to his "heroic flexibility" speech in 2013 when he first agreed to negotiations with the United States. He said on January 9, "Negotiations with the enemy at a certain juncture does not necessarily mean surrender".

In a report that was published by Iran Diplomacy website on Wednesday, conservative commentator Jalal Khoshchehreh told the website that softening Iran's positions on holding direct talks with America was a change that followed President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Moscow last week. Raisi himself, however, implied on live TV Tuesday night that direct talks are possible only if the United States lifts the sanctions on Iran.

As a result, Iranian newspapers came out Wednesday morning with three different messages about Tehran's approach to direct talks with Washington: The good, the bad and the ugly: Khamenei and Amir Abdollahian approving of direct talks with some hesitation, Raisi pending direct talks on the lifting of the sanctions, and Kayhan absolutely ruling out direct negotiations under any circumstances.

In a prominent headline on its frontpage on Wednesday the Kayhan said that "Direct talks is the enemy's trick to evade lifting the sanctions. Hossein Shariatmadari, the daily's firebrand editor wrote in his "brotherly advice to the foreign minister and security chief" that although they might be looking for water, they are misled to drown themselves in a mirage. Shariatmadari said he is worried that support for direct talks with the United States might disappoint the regime's devoted zealot supporters.

The anti-US editor then resorted to a piece of poetry from Iran's great poet Hafiz and quoted the 14th century mystic as saying: "This country is far from water, beware of the demons who lead you to mirage."

After noting "occasional whispers" over the United States seeking bilateral contact, Raisi, during an hour-long interview broadcast live by state television, was asked for Iran’s response should such a request be made “in a serious manner.”

Such an approach would not be unprecedented, including during times before he took office, Raisi replied. “[Officials of] many countries who meet with us here sometimes bear messages from Americans saying they want to talk with us directly…So far there have been no [direct] negotiations with the Americans. But we have announced before, and say it again, that there will be room, fully, for any kind of agreement, if the other sides are prepared to lift the unjust sanctions against us.”

The interviewer did not press the president over recent remarks by Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, envisaging direct talks. Amir-Abdollahian said Monday that the possibility would not be "overlooked" if a "good deal with strong guarantees" was within reach as part of the Vienna talks seeking to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Apparently following an account of Raisi’s interview on the Press TV English-language website, however, a slew of international reports and social media posts claimed the president had made direct talks conditional on the US first lifting sanctions. These apparently prompted Press TV to amend its account of the interview.

Speculation, or tactic?

The confusion was not just abroad. Abdollah Ganji, chief editor of Javan newspaper affiliated with IRGC, tweeted Tuesday that he did not now know whether direct talks with the US were “speculation or a tactic.”

Ganji insisted that Tehran should maintain its stance that Washington should not re-enter the formal Vienna process until it rejoined the JCPOA by withdrawing sanctions introduced since 2018 in violation of the pact. “If it's been decided [that talks with the US are] to happen, [they] should be bilateral…The US presence…[in the formal Vienna talks] means its return to the JCPOA without offering a guarantee to abide by its commitments to it.”

In another tweet Tuesday, Ganji said direct negotiation was a "possibility" that the nezam (‘system’) had always considered possible whenever a positive outcome was expected, “when it was not just talking for the sake of talking." The JCPOA was proceeded by two years of direct US-Iran talks, but Tehran ruled out such bilateral contact when the US left the JCPOA in 2018.

Nezam (system) is a word often used by Iranian politicians to refer to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei when mentioning him directly is to be avoided.

Javan newspaper Tuesday splashed a front-page headline, with Amir-Abdollahian's photo: "Direct Talks On Condition of Good Agreement with Strong Guarantees." Many hardliners were skeptical over the JCPOA, or opposed it, and were critical of what they said was the over-reliance on outreach to western Europe and the US of the previous administration of President Hassan Rouhani.

Rahman Ghahramanpour, a foreign policy expert in Iran says despite the possibility of Iran and the United States starting direct talks about the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, he still believes it is more likely that the two sides reach an interim agreement for two or three years.

He said there is every indication that an agreement between Iran and the United States is imminent, but he also warned that nothing is certain yet. He argued there are serious problems that may not be resolved within a month.

Rouydad24, the website that has published the interview with Ghahramanpour says such an agreement could materialize within a month. The optimism by the moderate website coincides with a statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh who said on Monday that talks in Vienna have had good progress and many disagreements have been resolved.

Another indication of a slight positive tilt in Iran’s posture was Khatibzadeh's quick response about releasing US prisoners in Iran saying it could be dome quickly if Iranians jailed in the US for sanctions violations are also freed.

In the meantime, commentators in Iran have noted that official remarks about possible direct talks with the United States have not raised typical objections by hardliners.

Referring to some Friday Prayer Imams who wholehearted supported and praised expansion of relations with Russia and China, Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative commentator observed that hardliner pundits who were opposed to direct talks with America have been conspicuously silent after Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian said that direct talks between Tehran and Washington would be possible.

Khabar Online website in Tehran drew attention to a tweet by Hadi Mohammadi, a reporter close to the Iranian foreign ministry, in which he said: "The Foreign Minister cancelled a Monday morning news conference after he was called to a meeting with high-rankling officials [Islamic Republic's jargon that means Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei]." The reporter noted that the meeting was about the nuclear negotiations.

He noted that the outcome of that meeting was quite a few vital decisions including holding direct talks with the United States. He also said that the nation should await new developments, but declined to elaborate.

Khabar Online also wrote about former hardline nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili's "mysterious silence." Jalili is believed to be the arch enemy of direct talks with America.

Meanwhile, reporters in Tehran also quoted Mahmoud Abbas Zadeh Meshkini the spokesman for the parliament's national Security and Foreign PolicyCommittee as having said, "We can have direct talks with the Americans if they show goodwill." Foreign Relations Reporter Ameneh Mousavi wrote that this is probably an indication that a permission has been given to Iranian officials for limited direct talks.

Other Iranian reporters noted the change in the slant of IRGC's Javan newspaper which for the first time talked positively about direct talks in a front-page headline. And reformist commentator Sadegh Zibakalam wrote in a January 25 tweet: "Negotiations with the United States are not as important as whether regime insiders, or outsiders are going to do it."

Reporters in Iran and abroad noted that a shift has occurred in Iran's approach to negotiations with the United States. They also noted that official opposition to direct talks has imposed a high cost on individual Iranians for a long time.

"This negotiation is urgent, and progress has not been fast enough. We continue to work in close partnership with our allies, but the negotiations are reaching a dangerous impasse," Truss told parliament.

The statement from the British foreign secretary comes as the American negotiating team seems to be in disarray, with the second man in charge leaving the team and two other members also reportedly quitting.

The Wall Street Journal in a report Mondaysaid sources close to the US negotiating team have stated that Richard Nephew, an architect of previous economic sanctions on Iran, and two other members of the team have left due to disagreements over Special Envoy Robert Malley's soft posture towards Tehran in the current negotiations.

"Iran must now choose whether it wants to conclude a deal or be responsible for the collapse of the JCPOA (nuclear deal). And if the JCPOA collapses, all options are on the table," Truss told parliament.

The United States and its European allies in the talks have been warning since early December that time is running out for an agreement with Iran, which is fast enriching uranium and getting closer to a nuclear bomb capability. However, they have not set any deadlines as reports say enforcement of American sanction on Iran has also weakened.

One of the issues that has divided the US team is how firmly to enforce existing sanctions as Iran reports a substantial increase in its oil exports to China. The other issue is whether to cut off negotiations as Iran drags them out while its nuclear program advances, the people familiar with the negotiations told the Wall Street Journal.

The Biden Administration made the revival of the 2015 agreement known as the JCPOA that Donald Trump had abandoned a priority as soon as it assumed office. Talks began almost 10 months ago with Iran and world powers but so far, no political agreement has been reached. The limited agreements achieved have been on technical issues about how Iran should return to the limits of the agreement and how the United States can lift sanctions.