Israeli Security Adviser Warns On Nuclear Iran At Bahrain Forum

Herzog will meet with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, Prince Charles of Wales and members of parliament.

In an opinion article in The Sunday Telegraph, Herzog called on the UK to engage in “an urgent dialogue” with “the moderate nations of the Middle East...on how stop Iran” from wasting time in nuclear talks and race toward a nuclear capability.

"Iran does not want dialogue," Herzog wrote. "It is exploiting the world's willingness to negotiate to buy time. Israel cannot allow the fundamentalists of Tehran to acquire a nuclear bomb.”

Israel is skeptical about the Biden Administration policy of negotiating a revivial of the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as JCPOA, concerned that the United States will make critical concessions without permanently banning Iran from producing nuclear weapons.

Sunni Arab states in the region share Israel’s concerns and last year’s Abraham Accords were partly motivated by a common desire to forge alliances against Tehran.

Kayhan, financed and published under direct supervision of Supreme Leader Ali Khameni’s office, had been previously editorially consistent in opposing the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). The newspaper was responding to a report in Axios news website Wednesday that United States and Israeli officials had discussed the idea. The JCPOA was itself preceded by an interim agreement in 2013 under which Iran limited uranium enrichment in return for some easing of multilateral sanctions.

Kayhan said Tehran would not allow the US return to the 2015 nuclear deal, which it left in 2018, "by releasing a few billion dollars of frozen assets." While it long criticized the previous administration of President Hasan Rouhani for reaching and implementing the JCPOA, Kayhan now gave a more positive assessment of the “clever” new team under President Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi).

"The US must effectively lift all main sanctions, provide a guarantee not to renege on its commitments again," the newspaper wrote. Without this, Iran would “not allow the US to become a member of the JCPOA again and find access to the trigger mechanism for automatic revival of sanctions.”

Full hands

Kayhan suggested Iran would resume talks with world powers in Vienna, on November 29 after a lapse since June, with “full hands,” referring to Iran’s expanding nuclear program – including stockpiles of 20-percent and 60-percent enriched uranium – and having survived the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced by previous president Donald Trump in 2018 and continued by President Joe Biden.

The new government in Tehran is also insisting that the Vienna talks will focus on the lifting of US sanctions in a verifiable manner rather than on further discussions on Iran’s nuclear program.

Referring to Tehran's uranium stockpile, the US Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley said Friday that Iran was "approaching the point of no return" for reviving the JCPOA. "Iran's advances are spreading alarm across the region... that's what's making the clock tick faster and making all of us say that the time is short for a return to the JCPOA," Malley warned.

An interim agreement might allow the US to ease back from its current position – Axios suggested the idea had come from a European state. The US source cited by Axios said an interim deal might see Iran freeze some enrichment while the US lifted its threats of punitive action against third parties over releasing money owed to Iran and perhaps allowed waivers on humanitarian goods to Iran.

Changing times

Speaking to Mehr news agency Saturday, Manouchehr Mottaki, foreign minister under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Tehran should take step-by-step actions restricting its nuclear activities if the United States eased sanctions, but he suggested the scenario was unlikely.

Former Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi reminded Etemad-e Melli newspaper of the interim deal struck in Geneva November 2013, which saw Iran freeze 20 percent enrichment in return for the lifting of some sanctions, which at that time were levied multilaterally, including by the European Union and the United Nations Security Council.

But present conditions are different from 2013, Ahmadi noted, stressing the situation had been changed by Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA, which had led to worries in Tehran that such action could be repeated and had increased the wariness of international companies and banks to deal with Iran given the risk of punitive US action against them.

Also speaking to Etemad-e Melli, international relations commentator Hasan Beheshtipour backed an interim agreement and step-by-step procedures, with both the US and Iran able to step back if the other party reneged.

All remaining parties to the JCPOA – China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom – have stressed the need to revive the treaty as it is; although any implementation would require an agreed timetable.

Saeed Khatibzadeh was quoted by local media on Friday as saying that that lifting sanctions at once and verification of this step are among Iran’s conditions for the US return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA.

He added that if the US returns to the Vienna talks ready to accept these conditions, agreement can be reached quickly. The negotiations are set to restart on November 29 after a five-month suspension by Iran.

The previous six rounds of talks tried to resolve which US sanctions should be lifted and in what sequence.

Khatibzadeh went on to say that Tehran also wants guarantees that Washington would not withdraw from an agreement again, in reference to the decision by former US president Donald Trump in 2018 to abandon the JCPOA and impose sanctions on Iran.

In recent weeks, Iran has hardened its position, signaling that it wants the Vienna talks to resume with different priorities than when they were suspended in June.

French Foreign Minister Yves Le Drian on Friday warned that if the Vienna talks prove to be a “sham”, it means JCPOA is “empty” and devoid of value.

Friday Prayer Imams receive instructions from a central office under the supervision of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and often highlight issues that the Islamic Republic’s top leadership wants to send as a message to Iranians or foreign countries.

Haj Ali Akbari, who delivered the main sermon on Friday also urged Iran’s negotiators to ignore “excuses” by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA.

The IAEA, which conducts monitoring of Iran’s nuclear installations, issued reports this week criticizing Tehran’s lack of cooperation, days before the agency’s Board of Governors is scheduled to meet.

France on Thursday urged the IAEA board to send a “strong message” to Iran, which could mean a formal censure for its lack of cooperation.

Iran has recently hardened its position demanding that the United States lift all sanctions at once and time for the verification before Tehran makes any moves to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement known as JCPOA.

"The first check we will have to do is whether we are continuing the discussion where it left off in June with the previous Iranian administration," Jean-Yves Le Drian said in an interview with le Monde, referring to when negotiations resume on November 29 between Iran and world powers.

"If this discussion is a sham, then we will have to consider the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) empty."

On Thursday France had demanded actions against Iran after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued critical reports on Wednesday saying Tehran was impeding its nuclear monitoring on designated facilities.

Iran’s new hardline administration has delayed the resumption of the nuclear talks it suspended in June for five months and has continued adding to its stockpile of 20-percent and 60-percent enriched uranium. In recent weeks it has hardened its position demanding that the United States lift all its sanctions at once to make an agreement possible.