Iran's Elite Increasingly Pessimistic And Anxious Over Nuclear Talks

Lawmaker Hassan Norouzi told the parliamentary news service Monday he had not made remarks attributed to him Sunday by Didban-e Iran website over the 2019 protests when hunreds were killed by security forces.

Norouzi said a “fake reporter” had called him and asked about the ‘Iran Atrocities Tribunal’ held in London last week. But Didban-e Iran defended its report, insisting it had taped the conversation and might sue the deputy.

Norouzi allegedly told the website: "I was one of those who shot people. [Yes,] we killed people… They had set fire to banks and we killed them. Who is going to put us on trial for it?" He then allegedly said was "joking" and hung up.

The comments, as reported, drew swift condemnation. The conservative newspaper Jomhouri Eslami wrote that “such a joke” was “deplorable by anyone, but even more by you who are a cleric wearing the cloak of the Prophet of Mercy [Muhammad].” The newspaper argued that Islamic values required those setting fire to banks to face justice and a proportionate punishment rather than being killed before a crime was proved.

Human rights lawyer Ali Mojtahedzadeh, in a commentary published by Didban-e Iran Monday, noted that Norouzi was a member of the parliament's Legal and Judiciary Committee, making his statements "even more deplorable.”

"What kind of a joke can this be when according to official figures nearly 300 people died in this incident, many more were wounded or detained, and so many lives were ruined?" Mojtahedzadeh asked. He criticized parliament and judiciary for not carrying out "a minimum level of investigation" after two years. "Which legal system in the world doesn't charge even one person for the murder of at least 300 citizens in the streets in broad daylight?” he asked.

Iran has not officially announced figures for deaths or arrests, nor put anyone on trial for killing protesters, but has prosecuted and passed heavy sentences including the death penalty on protesters on charges including “assembly and collusion against the regime.” Officials have put the number at over 200. Independent reports have put the number of protesters killed between 300-1,500.

Mojtahedzadeh claimed Iran had laws forbidding security forces shooting suspects above the waist in any situations and that shooting anyone, even if they were setting fire to banks, needed strong justification: "The real tragedy is that not only justice, based on Sharia and the law, has not been served in the case of these events but also some truths are being distorted and even mocked."

A video posted on social media by ‘mothers of victims’ challenged Norouzi to “stop hiding in your lair with 30 bodyguards” and to “come out and face us.”

The ‘Iran Atrocities Tribunal’ claimed in a Tweet Saturday that Iran’s deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri-Kani had threatened to “stop part” of Iran’s discussions with world powers if London did not stop the tribunal meeting. The tweet claimed the tribunal, which purports to be quasi-judicial investigation into the November 2019 protests, learnt this from “European sources.”

Didban-e Iran's report Saturday also claimed its “informed sources” had said the foreign ministry had protested to the British government for allowing the tribunal be held in the UK.

During the past week, an increasing number of analysts and political commentators in Iran have pointed out that some of Tehran's expectations including the lifting of all sanctions and demanding guarantees of a permanent US commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) might be farfetched.

It is not yet clear whether they are urging the government to make life easier for Iranians or it is the government that directs the commentators to make remarks politicians might want to use to justify a dramatic change in their positions once nuclear talks resume at the end of November.

Hardline analyst Mehdi Poursafa wrote in a commentary published by IRGC-linked Fars news agency on November 14 that "Negotiations only aiming at lifting the sanctions will not bear any particular fruit when looked at from a legal standpoint." He suggested that "instead, Iran should make sure that it has some verifiable financial gains."

Safapour argued that the United States has regularly awarded exemptions to Iran sanctions, allowing limited oil exports and natural gas sales. He implied that the same approach could apply to some of the current sanctions in the future.

It appears that analysts like Safapour would be happy with such exemptions. He also mentioned the example of US exemptions about trade with China regardless of sanctions imposed in the 1980s following the Tiananmen Square atrocities.

The biggest advantage Iranian negotiators can gain in the next round of negotiations with the West is "a framework that enables Iran to benefit from trade deals with the West", Safapour maintained, regardless of formal commitments.

Meanwhile, moderate conservative Khabar Online summarized debates on Clubhouse among Iranian analystsabout the same matter. Hassan Lasjerdi, one of the editors of the website said that negotiators from all sides normally brag about their expectations during the weeks before talks begin. He said most of the preconditions, including lifting all the sanctions before negotiations start are not achievable. Lasjerdi said he was sure negotiators' remarks will become more reasonable once the talks start.

Mehrdad Pashangpour, a political analyst also opined that the call for the lifting all the sanctions against Iran is "a good political bluff."

Political activist Hadi Mousavi said individuals around former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, including Bagheri, have begun thinking that the nuclear issue is not the main topic of the upcoming talks. It is a pretext based on which other matters could be discussed between Iran and the West.

He argued that the United States gave as many concessions to Iran as it could during the previous rounds of talks and now it is Iran that should be ready to give concessions. As a matter of fact, Mousavi said, because of opposition to the JCPOA in the US Senate, America might even take back some of the concessions it had previously offered.

Mohammad Mohajeri, another editor at Khabar online said that Zarif and his team were against the December 2020 legislation that called for the reduction of Iran's commitments under the JCPOA while hardliners at the time supported the bill. Mohajeri said that now the hardliners have also realized that the legislation is not in Iran's best interest, and it is likely to be overturned overnight with a decree from the Supreme Council of National Security.

Last week, the CEO of the government’s news agency IRNA and a newspaper affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard claimed Iran had freed $3.5-4 billion dollars of its frozen funds but did not say which country unblocked the assets.

Foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh was asked by reporters on Monday to comment on the issue. He replied: “Amid sanctions, we do not provide details to anyone. The central bank might comment if it sees fit.”

He added, “We have had many sources abroad and you know that we have been gradually freeing these assets that enter our economy. The fact that we are importing merchandise shows that these resources gradually return to the country, and it is not just from one source. Allow me to say just that much.”

Khatibzadeh’s comments were vague enough to cover a lot of possibilities. In advance of nuclear talks scheduled to resume in two weeks, Iran might be trying to show a full hand by claiming not to be in a dire financial situation. It is also possible that the claim is based on recouping payments from some current illicit oil exports and not necessarily funds officially frozen by other countries, such as South Korea and Iraq.

Khatibzadeh also announced that Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has been invited to visit Iran and the foreign ministry has proposed a date and is waiting to hear back from him. However, this contradicts comments by Grossi who expressed his disappointment on November 12 at having no contact with the Iranian government.

Grossi told reporters it is “astonishing” that “I have not had any contact with this government” that has been in office for five months, except “technical” conversations with the head of Iran’s atomic energy agency.

Iran has curtailed IAEA’s monitoring access to its nuclear facilities since the beginning of the year, demanding that the United States should lift sanctions imposed since 2018.

Khatibzadeh’s comment about Iran having extended an invitation to Grossi comes days before the IAEA Board of Governors is scheduled to meet in Vienna where Grossi could criticize Tehran for lack of cooperation.

The Iranian spokesman insisted that “technical” interactions with IAEA are “in a good path” and we are waiting for Grossi’s response. If he travels to Iran, he will meet with foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Grossi had complained in October that he had had no meeting with the new foreign minister.

The publication also said that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will not meet with US Special Envoy Robert Malley who is visiting Israel to show his displeasure. The American envoy is seen as spearheading ‘a deal at any cost’ approach in the Biden Administration.

According to briefings received by Israeli officials the United States is willing to lift the most important sanctions in exchange for a simple cessation of uranium enrichment by Iran.

That would leave a considerable quantity of 20-percent and 60-percent enriched uranium in Tehran’s possession and all the enrichment equipment it has assembled recently.

The US had pledged to aim for a stronger agreement with Iran after it launched indirect talks in April but is now reportedly focused on stopping further enrichment.

This would be even more than Iran has been demanding during the past months, which is a return to the status quo of May 2018 when former president Donald Trump withdrew form the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA.

Oddly enough, while reformists and conservatives alike highlighted Raisi’s shortcomings, his only defendant appears to be his father-in-law, the firebrand Friday Prayers Imam of Mashhad in northeastern Iran.

Reformist daily newspaper Sharq in its Twitter account quoted Alamolhioda as having said on Friday that "Problems cannot be sorted out within a hundred days, although one can begin to move toward an improvement." However, Alamolhoda did not say whether Raisi has made the move yet. Meanwhile, Tehran's Friday Prayers Imam Seddighi attributed all economic problems as well as water shortage to the "sins committed by young Iranians."

Reformist analyst Abbas Abdi, told conservative daily Sobh-e No in an interview that there were three positive points in Raisi's track record during the past 100 days: "His provincial visits, boosting nationwide vaccination against COVID-19, and refraining from badmouthing Iranian and foreign individuals and organizations."

However, Abdi warned that that the people might be soon disillusioned with the president’s provincial visits if they see no improvement in their situation. Meanwhile, many critics have pointed out that the progress in vaccination is being highlighted after months of delays in the purchase of vaccines from abroad.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei banned American and British vaccines in January, thwarting the national vaccination effort until August, when Raisi took office.

Abdi criticized Raisi for his failure to define and pursue a clear a foreign policy, key to solving economic problems, and to sort out issues in the country's domestic politics which is most prominently evident in the appointment of officials' relatives to key posts in the government mindless of their lack of qualifications.

Meanwhile, Gholamreza Noori, a conservative lawmaker in an interview with moderate website Rouydad24 said that "the country's economy is facing a major crisis and criticism of the Raisi administration is gaining momentum on a daily basis." He also criticized Raisi for his provincial visits saying that "It is good that he visits the provinces, but it is not good that he says he visits to find out about their problems." He added that it is regrettable the Raisi administration has started its fourth month in office failing to stabilize skyrocketing prices.

Noori added: "Every day if you listen to parliament proceedings on the radio you will hear conservative lawmakers complaining against the administration's shortcomings." He warned that "There is a limit to the lawmakers' patience."

A similar warning was made by Abdi who said Raisi should note that his honeymoon with the Majles (parliament) is going to end soon.

Like many other conservative and reformist critics, Noori charged that "Raisi has no plan to solve any problem." He added: "The administration has still not responded to lawmakers' questions about how it is going to tackle the budget deficit and how it is going to regulate the markets. And there is no indication that the government is going to take the initiative about problems such as the JCPOA and FATF."

The lack of a plan on the part of the government to solve the country's problems was also highlighted in reformist figure Ali Soufi's article about Raisi's 100 days in office. Soufi said that this will badly harm the government's credibility. Meanwhile, like many other critics affiliated with various political groups, Soufi also denounced nepotism in the government.

Earlier, another lawmaker, Massoud Pezeshkian had warnedthat if these problems are not solved within a reasonable period of time, the nationwide protests that shook Iran in 2018 and 2019 are likely to reoccur.