Iranian Commentators Not So Optimistic About Outcome Of Nuclear Talks

Fereydoun Abbasi, a former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization was quoted by Tasnim news agency close to the Revolutionary Guard as saying that the current government’s approach is different from the former president Hassan Rouhani’s administration.

“We should not look at America as the sheriff in town. If they want to negotiate with Iran, they should be just one country alongside other members of JCPOA,” Abbasi maintained. If the US intends to rejoin the 2015 nuclear agreement, it should also pay damages to Iran for having imposed sanctions, Abbasi added.

Iran suspended nuclear negotiations with World Powers in June when President Ebrahim Raisi won the presidential vote. As Tehran has delayed its return to the talks, it has continued enriching uranium and has boosted its stockpile.

This week a new date was set to resume the talks on November 29. Abbasi said that Iran should use both “soft and hard power” in this round of talks. “Soft power is people’s support and hard power is our nuclear and deterrent military progress,” the lawmaker emphasized.

Seventeen members of the House of Representatives in their letter urged the Biden Administration to “hold Iran accountable” for reportedly resourcing and encouraging the attack, a statement from Congressman Bryan Steil (R-WI) said Friday.

The lawmakers point to repeated attacks by Iran-backed groups on US bases in Iraq and in Syria this year and link the issue of Tehran’s behavior to talks in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA. The Biden Administration’s policy is to revive the 2015 agreement in order to reestablish international controls over Iran’s nuclear program, but critics say that to achieve that, the United States must lift sanctions that would give Tehran more money to expand its influence in the region.

“We have continued to watch Iran attack US troops and our allies in the Middle East, while increasing its nuclear activities. These threats are ongoing, and your administration continues to weaken our ability to combat the Iranian regime by lifting US sanctions.”

Republican Representatives and Senators have written to the Biden Administration several times this year to warn against lifting the Iran sanctions. A letter in February by 15 Republicans drew Biden’s attention to “Iran’s malign activities, including its nuclear program,” missiles, as well as to its “support for terrorism, hostage taking, cyberattacks, and gross human rights violations.”

Former US president Donald Trump abandoned the JCPOA in 2018, saying it was a bad agreement that will not stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons in the future and demanding Iran to change its “malign behavior” in the region, as well as limit its missile development program and respect human rights.

Trump reimposed oil export and banking sanctions on Iran that had been lifted when the JCPOA was signed. This has pushed Iran’s economy to the brink of total breakdown, triggering high inflation and a large budget deficit.

The Republican lawmakers urged Biden not to reduce these sanctions, while Iran is suspected of orchestrating an attack against US troops.

“During a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East, it sends a dangerous message to our friends and adversaries that we continue to lift sanctions and negotiate with the largest state sponsor of terrorism as they attack us.”

In his Friday sermon, Alamolhoda, who is President Ebrahim Raisi's father-in-law, said US “pirates” had tried to hijack an Iranian tanker and its cargo, but Iranian forces had not only freed the Iranian vessel but had also “confiscated the pirate tanker” to which the oil had been transferred.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have released a video of the incident, October 25, showing Iranian helicopters and naval speed boats taking over an oil tanker and guiding it into Iranian waters.

The IRGC claimed that the US had seized a tanker carrying Iranian oil, transferred its oil to a second tanker, but were thwarted when Iranian commandos landed, took control of the second tanker, and sailed it back to Iran. The IRGC said the US navy deployed helicopters and warships but gave up the chase.

Yet another version circulating in state media is that pirates were trying to steal the oil and the US Navy was giving them cover.

Vietnam said Thursday it was in talks with Iranian foreign ministry officials over the status of the crew of the Vietnam-flagged Sothys. American officials have claimed that the whole incident amounted to Iran seizing a Vietnamese-flagged oil tanker with US naval forces, who say they are present to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz, just “monitoring” the situation. Around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes through Hormuz.

According to TankerTrackers, Sothys has no US affiliation and in the incident on 24-25 October, just happened to sail alongside a US navy patrol before being directed to Iran by the IRGC. TankerTrackers said Sothys was returning after being denied entry by China into Longkou in July or August and was carrying oil that it had taken aboard in the anchorage of Sohar, Oman, in June.

TankerTrackers said Thursday that the Sothys had now transferred 700,000 barrels of crude to an Iranian tanker.

Iran has been shipping oil to Asian destinations despite the US threat since 2018 to take punitive action against any buyers under its ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions. China, the main importer of Iranian oil, uses various means to disguise both the origins of shipments and its payment methods, and has on occasion turned away arrivals of Iranian oil as way of placating Washington.

Much of the Iranian media celebrated Iran’s reaction to October’s alleged piracy as a US humiliation. The incident was reported on the eve of the anniversary of the Iranian students' seizure of the US embassy in Tehran on November 4 1979, celebrated as National Student Day.

On August 3 Reuters quoted a claim from three “maritime security forces” that “Iranian-backed forces” had seized a tanker off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. The vessel, owned by a company based in Dubai, was identified as the Panama-registered Asphalt Princess.

On August 4, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the Royal Navy’s information service for shipping, reported that a “potential hijack incident” was “complete,” suggesting boarders had left the tanker. Iran denied any involvement as a spokesman criticized "a kind of psychological warfare…setting the stage for new bouts of adventurism.”

It was the first significant violent clash between government forces and parties, most of which have armed wings and are aligned with Iran, since those groups lost dozens of parliament seats after the Oct. 10 vote.

Police fired tear gas and live ammunition into the air as scores of the protesters threw stones and tried to advance towards Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and foreign embassies, security sources said.

More than 21 protesters were hurt mostly from smoke inhalation and another nine policeman injured from being pelted by stones, the hospital sources said.

The parties that made the biggest gains in Iraq's October election include that of populist Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who publicly opposes Iranian interference in Iraqi politics and has called for all remaining Western troops to withdraw from the country.

The Iran-backed groups disputing the election result are also Shi'ite but follow an Iranian model of theocratic governance which the nationalist Sadr and many ordinary Iraqi Shi'ites reject.

The election result was seen as a rejection by voters of foreign influence, especially that of Iran.

Report by Reuters

Majid-Reza Hariri, a businessman, who has recently issued other warnings about Iran’s economy and what he called lack of oil sales, told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) on Friday that inflation is becoming a serious threat. He argued that if the inflation rate rises above the current 50-60 percent rate, it would become much harder to control it.

In the past few months, figures issued by the Statistical Center of Iran show more than 45 percent overall annual inflation, with food prices rising by almost 70 percent compared to last year.

Iran has been delaying nuclear talks with the West since June, when it suspended multi-lateral negotiations and is expanding its nuclear program. New talks are scheduled to start at the end of November, but few believe there will be a quick outcome.

In recent weeks, many other public figures, including senior clerics, have called on the government to take urgent action in containing the current economic crisis that according to some estimates has impoverished close to 50 percent of Iran’s population.

Hariri who in the past, as openly as possible, has called for resolving Iran’s disputes with the West, reiterated that rescuing the economy needs attention to improving foreign relations.

“A great part of Iran’s economy is dependent on oil exports, and it is not possible to cure this economic addiction quickly,” Hariri said, and added that removing the US sanctions should be a priority, but no matter what Iran is willing to do, the final decision, or the other side of the coin is America. Iran cannot be the sole decider in removing the sanctions. The United States must agree.

The other policy should be to shield the economy, as much as possible, from the impact of sanctions, Hariri said, and emphasized the importance of bilateral trade with many more countries than Iran’s current seven main trading partners.

Hariri, who usually speaks like a businessman rather than a government official, said that every decision the government makes it should consider the danger of uncontrolled inflation. “Any policy that could lead to higher inflation should be eliminated,” he said. If prices rise any further, the country can face hyper-inflation, which would be difficult to overcome.

He called on the government to use a wider range of economic experts for advice on inflation and not to narrow its thinking to one group of economists. Hariri mentioned the example of former finance minister Ali Tayebniya, who in the first four years of Hassan Rouhani’s presidency (2013-2017) was able to bring a 47-percent inflation rate down to 11-12 percent.

The head of the supreme labor committee said on Thursday that a basket of essential supplies for a family of 3 has reached 115 million rials. Although in today’s exchange rate that amounts to just $425, a typical worker in Iran receives much less than $200 a month.

Amid this crisis, president Raisi is seen as just issuing orders to his aides to fix a myriad of national and local economic and infrastructure problems. His critics, even among conservatives say the new government has been in power for three months and should start to put its act together.