Iran International
President Ebrahim Raisi should tell the truth to the people instead of giving "formal" television interviews, a well-known conservative newspaper has said.
The Islamic Republic newspaper (Jomhouri-ye Eslami), enjoying close connections with the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in an editorial note wrote that there is a lot to say about an October 18 interview by state television with Raisi, but most of all “an interview with the president should not be a formality”.
The paper, established after the revolution in 1979, is managed by Masih Mohajeri, a widely respected veteran cleric known for eschewing factions.
The newspaper noted that despite earlier promises to accept questions from the public, no such opportunity was offered, and the interviewer did not challenge Raisi when he repeatedly blamed the former administration for current problems people face. The paper asked that more than two months have passed since Raisi took office and why there is no positive movement toward solving the economic hardship people face.
Iran’s hardliners were lambasting former president Hassan Rouhani in the media for the deteriorating economic conditions since the United States withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) in 2018. The criticism usually left out the fact that without oil export income constituting half of the government’s budget Rouhani’s hands were tied. The same applies to Raisi.
The Islamic Republic daily wrote that when the price of poultry increased, the state television was attacking Rouhani but now when egg prices have doubled in two months it does not question Raisi.
The paper said that everyone knows the answer as to why egg prices have jumped but Raisi should have been asked about it, so he could have explained that his government is also challenged by the same “external factors”, Rouhani faced, which are beyond the president’s powers to address.
The sharp statement implicitly refers to Iran’s nuclear program and negotiations with the West that have so far not succeeded, leaving the country to struggle amid US sanctions.
The newspaper advised the president “to tell the people the reality, openly and honestly.” In this case, people would welcome his conduct and he would have a better chance of success. In other words, Raisi should come out and admit that US sanctions have led to the serious economic crisis, but the power to change that with a nuclear agreement rests with Khamenei.
Raisi was handpicked by Khamenei to become president after all serious rivals were barred from running in the June election by a constitutional body under the Supreme Leader’s control.
Both before the vote and after assuming office, Raisi has been echoing Khamenei’s slogans for self-sufficiency, and making lofty promises of revolutionary solutions to modern day economic issues. He issues a dozen orders a day for local and national problems to be solved, without saying how his officials can build roads, provide drinking water and electricity or pay workers when there is close to 50-percent budget deficit.
An exchange rate of 42,000 rials to the dollar is applied to imports of ‘essential’ commodities while the dollar trades in the open market at over 270,000 rials. The hugely discounted dollar for importers of essential goods was meant to keep down the cost of the commodities facing consumers.
In April 2018, as the United States readied ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions and as the rial fell to a then record market low of around 60,000 against the dollar, the government of President Hassan Rouhani introduced a rate of 42,000 rials to the dollar to facilitate imports of essential goods.
The government's foreign exchange subsidy not only failed to prevent the further fall of the rial or stabilize the market but also it soon became a new problem as allegations of corruption in the distribution of the cheaper dollar began to haunt the government in a matter of months. Much of the valuable was being spent on importing luxury items, from cars to household appliances while subsidized food, medicine, and animal feed was being smuggled out of the country.
According to the Tasnim news agency, Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi this week said the government's economic team was considering allocating the resources currently channeled into supporting essential imports into direct payments to citizens.
Such a move could bolster the ability of recipients to pay higher prices, but economists have argued in recent days that price inflation will accelerate if cheap dollars stop, and the cash handouts would never make up the difference.
That would carry a serious risk of political unrest for the government, as events in November 2019 showed. A sudden hike in gasoline prices led to spontaneous widespread protests. Security forces used military weapons to fire on unarmed protesters, killing hundreds in three days.
The government of President Ebrahim Raisi faces a budget deficit of around $12 billion. A recent report from the Planning and Budget Organizationput Iran’s debt at 30 percent of GDP: this compares to 40 percent in Turkey, 67 percent in Egypt, 117 percent in the US, and 171 percent in Lebanon, but is onerous where denominated in dollars.
Due to demand on foreign exchange − and with the rial at a market rate of 140,000 against the dollar − a meeting of the president with the heads of parliament and judiciary in April 2019 fixed the subsidized rate at 42,000 and limited its allocation to imports such as food and medicine.
The Central Bank, accordingly, constrained the allocation. By July 2021, reports emerged that 1.3 million metric tons of ‘essential’ goods in Iranian ports could not be unloaded because importers lacked dollars to pay foreign vendors.
Sugar was dropped from the list of eligible items in November 2020, while cooking oil remained. Since late March the government has allocated at least $6.9 billion for importing ‘essential’ goods at the set rate, including $1.5 billion for cooking oil.
Nonetheless the price of cooking oil has almost doubled in a year, given rising inflation put at close to 50 percent annually by the Statistical Center of Iran. The IMF projects consumer price inflation of 39 percent in 2021, and 28 percent in 2022.
The highlight of what he said was a point that was not new: "I am not going to tie the people's livelihood to the nuclear negotiations."
This has been one of his persisting slogans in recent weeks, meaning Iran will not make concessions to the West to get sanctions relief. Instead, it will try to deal with its economic crisis through self-reliance and closer relations with China and Russia.
Conservative news website Alef, however, wrote in a commentary on Tuesday that the president can solve problems only if he has the right middle managers.
Alef wrote: "Some 75 days after taking office as President, still many seats remain vacant in Raisi's administration." Citing the government's own website, Alef wrote that parts of the government including the President's Office and the Interior Ministry still do not have the right officials that can bring about the changes planned by Raisi. The Ministry of Education has still no minister more than a month after the beginning of the new academic year.
Alef noted that "the least degree of overhaul has taken place in the economic ministries, where changes are most needed." The website observed that with all the tough economic problems the government faces, there is no one to carry out orders coming from the top.
As an example, according to moderate conservative Khabar Online website, Raisi once again issued orders to three ministries on Tuesday to take measures "to give peace of mind to the people about their livelihood and to put an end to inaction within the government and to sort out the instability in the markets." Like always, Raisi called for "immediate, serious and revolutionary measures" while observers say there is no one to carry out these orders.
In an interview with reformist daily Arman, right-of-center former lawmaker and Tehran City Council member Sharbanu Amani said that the most important problem for Raisi is that his government "has no plans and roadmaps and that is why it seems to be confused about many things."
Ms. Amani charged that neither Raisi, nor his aides have ever told the people about the details of their plans for solving the country's problems. She added that "although Raisi has been part of the Iranian government for at least 40 years, he still does not have a full team to support him. There was no team even when he was running for the office."
The outspoken politician said: "Raisi was elected in an extremely low-turnout election. He was expected to be in a hurry to seek the nation's support by acting quickly to solve problems. But we see that he has set up one of the weakest administrations in Iran when we look at his top officials. Most of his managers, who are mainly the former aides of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, look at problems from a military and security perspective. This comes while we expected him to behave in a way that would return the public's trust in the government."
Amani said Raisi may find it difficult to restore public trust. In his visit to Bushehr Province, he asked the local governor to solve long-standing problems within ten days while everyone knows that would be impossible as economic problems cannot be solved by issuing orders.
Ms. Amani warned that Iran's economic crisis is serious, yet, the Raisi administration has not taken any positive step to solve Iran’s nuclear dispute and help lift sanctions, while the Covid pandemic is also taking its toll. The parliament, packed by hardliners, which was supposed to help the likeminded president has done nothing. In the meantime, useless decisions such as a planned 20-year deal with Venezuela, a country with its own severe economic crisis is questionable. Selecting Mohammad Eslami as nuclear chief and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as Foreign Minister were also wrong decisions. They do not know the basics of their job, she maintained.
However, Ms. Amani said: We cannot blame Raisi for all the problems. Those who omitted all other candidates and narrowed down the people's choice to Raisi are also to be blamed for the situation.