Trump's election defeat fuels debate in Tehran over US deal

The argument featured prominently on Iranian state television on Thursday, where commentators urged Iran to maintain its leverage through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that easing pressure could allow the United States to continue its naval blockade even after the war formally ends.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei dismissed hopes that changes in the balance of power in Washington could lead to a softer American approach.

In a message published Wednesday to mark Iran's National Day of Fighting Global Arrogance, Khamenei described as "seriously mistaken" those who retain "even the slightest hope for a change in behavior or shifts in political parties and factions" in the United States.

He warned that even a limited inclination toward surrender would weaken the government's domestic support and encourage further American demands.

Keeping up the pressure

Vahid Khazab, a regular panellist on the state television programme Be Vaght-e Iran (Iran Time), said Democrats were unlikely to oppose the US naval blockade of Iran on principle.

"I have not heard anyone come forward and say that a naval blockade is wrong," he said. "They would not oppose a blockade unless it became costly too."

Khazab argued that Iran should keep the Strait of Hormuz completely closed to make the US naval blockade as costly for Washington as the war itself, warning that the blockade's continuation could effectively prolong the conflict even after hostilities formally end.

The remarks reflected an argument among hardline commentators that Tehran should preserve its economic and strategic leverage rather than interpret the Democratic victories as an opening for compromise.

Claiming a political victory

Senior Iranian officials and pro-establishment media have portrayed the Democrats' gains as a consequence of the political and economic costs of the war.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, wrote on X that Iran had inflicted a strategic defeat on Trump on the battlefield and in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a political defeat in Washington.

The hardline newspaper Javan, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared that "Iran won the election in America," describing the Democratic victory as a political aftershock of Trump's conduct of the war.

Khazab pointed to rising gasoline, diesel and fertiliser prices, arguing that the war had contributed to Republican losses in agricultural states such as Iowa and Kansas.

"What caused the high prices of gasoline, diesel, and chemical fertilizers?" he asked. "Was it Trump's personality? Was it Trump's corruption and that of his sons? Was it Elon Musk? No, it was the war."

The programme's presenter said the significance of the elections lay not in a Democratic victory but in "the defeat of the Republicans because of the policies they adopted" toward Iran.

No expectations of Democrats

The commentators also warned against repeating what they regarded as misplaced optimism following Joe Biden's victory over Trump in 2020.

Nima Akbarkhani, another regular panellist, criticised reformists who had expected Biden to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement after Trump withdrew from it in 2018. Although Biden returned the United States to several international agreements abandoned by Trump, his administration did not rejoin the nuclear deal.

"Why didn't he return to the JCPOA?" Akbarkhani asked, referring to the agreement by its formal abbreviation. "Because they were telling themselves that this was once again the time to enter new negotiations and secure further concessions."

Mohammad Saleh Jowkar, a member of parliament, echoed Khamenei's warning in comments to the Mehr News Agency.

"It is absolutely unacceptable for some to assume that the arrival of the Democrats, a change in the composition of the US Senate or House of Representatives, or political developments in that country have created conditions for negotiations and concessions," he said.

Khazab added that the US elections were worth examining, if only because "understanding the enemy's camp is essential," he said.

Tehran sent Washington a nuclear proposal through Qatar, Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official who said any discussion of its contents would depend on the United States first meeting Iran's seven demands.

The official said Washington was reviewing the proposal.

Trump has acknowledged that the war contributed to Republican losses in Tuesday's elections, while Democratic leaders have vowed to use their new congressional majorities to push for an end to military operations against Iran.

For Tehran, the election results have raised the prospect of negotiating with a politically weakened president, although Iranian officials continue to insist on concrete concessions before relaxing their grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

Putin offers support for ending war

Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei travelled to Moscow, where he delivered a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Rezaei told Iranian state television that Khamenei had wanted the message conveyed to Putin as soon as possible. He did not disclose its contents.

According to Rezaei, Putin condemned US and Israeli attacks on Iran, including strikes on its nuclear facilities, and offered Russian assistance in ending the war.

"He believed this was an unjust war and that it should end as soon as possible," Rezaei said. "He said, 'We are ready to cooperate in any way we can to help end the war.'"

Rezaei said Putin welcomed recent consultations among four regional countries in Tehran and supported a security framework that would exclude outside powers.

"Like our Chinese friends, we believe there should be regional arrangements and that foreign countries should not interfere in the region's security," Rezaei quoted Putin as saying.

Rezaei's involvement may also indicate a willingness among influential figures in Iran's security establishment to explore a negotiated settlement.

The New York Times reported, citing two Iranian officials and an American official, that Rezaei had privately expressed openness to discussing Iran's nuclear programme.

According to the report, he has been involved in negotiations with Qatari mediators alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Regional diplomatic outreach

Araghchi also held separate telephone conversations Thursday with his counterparts from nine countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, according to Iranian state media.

The calls, which also included Pakistan, Jordan, Kuwait and Cyprus, focused on regional developments and efforts to end the war.

The breadth of the diplomatic activity suggests that discussions extend beyond Iran's foreign ministry to senior figures in its security and political establishment, although Tehran's willingness to compromise remains unclear.

The central obstacle is the sequence of concessions. Iran wants Washington to meet its demands before substantive nuclear discussions can proceed, while the United States has yet to indicate whether it will accept those conditions.

On Iranian state television and in state-aligned media, commentators are debating how to make Tehran's threats of retaliation more credible, with proposals ranging from devastating attacks on military and energy infrastructure to changes in Iran's nuclear posture.

Speaking on the state television programme Be Vaght-e Iran (Iran Time) on Tuesday, international relations analyst Mostafa Najafi argued that Iran's previous military responses had failed to convince Israel that another conflict would carry sufficiently high costs.

Najafi said Israelis had experienced the impact of Iranian missile attacks during the second week of the 12-day war, but that the damage had been less significant during the subsequent 40-day war.

He cited Israeli polling that he said showed 60% of Israelis continued to support military action against Iran, potentially encouraging Israel to launch another operation.

"Any new deterrence equation must credibly convey to the Israeli enemy that if another confrontation occurs, the consequences will go beyond those of the 12-day war, the 40-day war, and the subsequent True Promise 1 and True Promise 2 operations," he said.

Najafi claimed that Iranian decision-makers had resolved to inflict considerably greater damage on Israel in any future confrontation. He argued that Tehran should demonstrate its ability to retaliate within minutes of an attack, sending credible signals before hostilities begin rather than waiting for another war.

Another panellist, Vahid Khazab, argued that Tehran should warn Washington that any new conflict would involve attacks on energy infrastructure.

He cited the attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan energy complex as an example of the damage Iran could inflict, claiming that it had not yet returned to production, unlike Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which Riyadh had restored after an attack.

Khazab said Israel should also be warned that Iranian retaliation would target its infrastructure.

The discussion has continued even as the war's political consequences become increasingly apparent in Washington. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections, with Trump acknowledging that the Iran war contributed to Republican losses. Vice President JD Vance went further, identifying the conflict as the principal reason for the defeat.

European targets enter the discussion

The debate comes amid increasingly expansive threats in Iranian state-aligned media about the geographical scope of any future conflict.

Referring to a recently reported meeting between Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and senior military commanders, Najafi said Tehran had previously warned that another war would become a regional conflict.

He argued that Khamenei's reported instruction to respond to attacks "without any geographical limitations" should now be treated as a credible threat by Iran's adversaries.

On Tuesday, Tehran Municipality-affiliated Hamshahri newspaper published a map of Europe and reported that Iran's armed forces were updating their list of potential targets "without geographical limitations."

The newspaper suggested that US air and naval bases, logistical facilities and other military infrastructure in Europe could be targeted if Washington and Israel attacked Iran's strategic infrastructure.

It also raised the possibility of extending the range of Iranian ballistic missiles, potentially bringing US bases in Europe within reach.

Nuclear doctrine and the NPT

The discussion has also extended to whether Iran should reconsider its nuclear doctrine and its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Najafi criticised Tehran for repeatedly threatening to change its nuclear doctrine before the 12-day and 40-day wars without following through, arguing that this had weakened its deterrence.

He said Iran needed to make a clear decision before another confrontation and communicate it through official channels, backed by a broader national consensus.

"Before the war, the message must be conveyed in every possible way to the other side and to all other parties, including hostile parties and allies who, in one way or another, play a role in our nuclear file," he said.

Najafi argued that changing Iran's nuclear doctrine would not necessarily require withdrawal from the NPT. He suggested Tehran could instead reduce its commitments under the treaty, while warning that withdrawal without a corresponding change in deterrence capabilities could expose Iran to additional threats.

"If you are going to make a change, and that change necessarily involves withdrawing from the NPT, without translating it into nuclear deterrence, I don't think it will create deterrence. It could even create additional threats against the country," he said.

Khazab offered a different approach, claiming he had received reliable information that Iranian decision-makers were considering using the threat of NPT withdrawal as a bargaining chip.

He suggested Tehran could seek concessions, including sanctions relief, in exchange for remaining in the treaty.

Khazab added that any such move would depend on Washington first meeting Iran's seven conditions for ending the war.

“I am not pushing to speak with Iran’s foreign minister; he regularly asks me to speak with him again,” Wadephul said on the Politik mit Anne Will podcast.

Wadephul said Germany was maintaining contact with Tehran while urging Iran to engage constructively in negotiations and pressing Washington to give diplomacy a chance.

He described the coming days as critical, saying a decision on further US military action had not yet been made.

Germany urges both sides to pursue negotiations

Wadephul said he had discussed the risk of renewed fighting with the foreign ministers of Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, including in conversations following a recent G20 meeting.

The discussions focused on identifying possible areas of agreement, bringing the parties back to negotiations and preventing further escalation.

“You have to persuade Iran to be ready to negotiate, which is not easy because its leadership is very divided and there are several factions,” he said.

“I cannot guarantee that this will succeed, but it is my task, together with my colleagues, to do everything we can to resolve this crisis through diplomacy and avoid another round of fighting that would make all of us suffer.”

Wadephul also pointed to a recent meeting in Istanbul, where the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Britain, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan jointly called for restraint.

He said Germany's relationships with Washington and Israel allowed it to communicate its concerns directly to both governments.

Military action cannot bring political change, Wadephul says

Despite his criticism of Iran's leadership, Wadephul argued that another military campaign would not produce political change in Tehran.

He described the Islamic Republic as a government that imprisons, tortures and executes its citizens, but said any change in the country's political system would have to come from Iranians themselves.

"Such change cannot be brought about militarily. It can only develop from within Iran," he said.

At the same time, Wadephul accused Tehran of pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities and supporting armed groups in neighboring countries, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Iraq.

"The cause of this conflict, of course, is an Iran that is preparing to arm itself with nuclear weapons and supports militias in many neighboring countries that do not respect those countries' sovereignty," he said.

He argued that Iran's activities had prompted military responses, while maintaining that further attacks would not provide a lasting solution.

Wadephul said Germany continued to favor economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure over renewed military action.

Berlin warns of risks around Strait of Hormuz

Wadephul expressed particular concern about the possibility of another escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for international oil shipments.

He said Germany and its partners were urging the United States to refrain from further strikes while encouraging Iran to negotiate, although neither side's response could be guaranteed.

The foreign minister also said he trusted US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who had indicated that President Donald Trump had not made a final decision on resuming major military operations against Iran.

"We're in critical days," Wadephul said. "No one can say exactly how the coming days will unfold."

He said the economic consequences of the conflict reinforced the need for a diplomatic settlement, pointing to higher energy prices affecting consumers and businesses across Europe.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made a similar appeal Friday, saying the conflict could not be resolved militarily and calling for negotiations.

Speaking in Seoul, Merz said higher energy costs associated with the war had imposed more than 100 billion euros in additional expenses on European businesses and consumers over the past eight months.

He said Germany was intensifying diplomatic coordination with regional governments to help bring the conflict to an end.

Al Hadath reported on October 30 that mediators were considering a plan to match each Iranian nuclear concession with a US step to ease sanctions. The draft raised the possibility of China serving as a guarantor. Beijing’s account of its talks with an Iranian envoy on Monday gave no indication it had accepted that role.

The question has practical consequences for Tehran. In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement and reimposed sanctions. Matching concessions step by step could limit how much Iran gives up before it sees an economic return. What China would do if Washington later restored sanctions remains unclear.

Beijing also has a stake in reopening Hormuz

Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Monday that Tehran wanted China to play a greater role in regional diplomacy. According to China’s foreign ministry, Wang backed Iran’s sovereignty and urged all sides to make concessions to avoid renewed fighting.

Wang’s separate meeting that day with Saudi national security adviser Musaed al-Aiban helps explain the limits of that backing. Wang stressed the need to protect energy supplies and shipping routes. China relies on oil shipped through Hormuz, giving it an interest in reopening the waterway even if Tehran would prefer to keep it closed until Washington meets its demands.

Beijing also announced plans to send its Middle East envoy, Zhai Jun, to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq welcomed a larger Chinese role during his own visit to Beijing. Qatar, meanwhile, continues to mediate between Tehran and Washington.

Where Moscow and Tehran agree

Mohsen Rezaei, who heads Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday. The council said they discussed regional developments. Its public account gave no details of any agreement on the US naval blockade.

Putin said in October that he wanted shipping through Hormuz to resume and sanctions on Iran eventually lifted. Russia has also offered to take custody of Iran’s enriched uranium, giving Moscow a potential role if Tehran and Washington can agree on what happens to the stockpile.

For Tehran, the order of concessions matters. Rezaei said Tuesday that Washington must act on Iran’s seven conditions before the strait reopens. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the demands include oil sanctions waivers, an end to the naval blockade and the release of frozen funds. Moscow supports sanctions relief, but Putin has stopped short of endorsing Tehran’s demand that Washington move first.