CENTCOM seeks creative, unconventional ways to pressure Iran – CNN

In a joint statement on Saturday, the organizations Defenders of Children's Rights in Iran and the Center for Justice for Children said they were deeply concerned that authorities could soon execute 18-year-old Shervin Bagherian from Isfahan.

The groups said Bagherian's case demonstrated that death sentences against children and teenagers, issued under what they described as flawed criminal procedures, had become a continuing practice in the Islamic Republic.

Their warning came days after authorities executed another defendant in the same case, 20-year-old Arvin Kheirkhah, at dawn on Saturday, raising fears that Bagherian and other co-defendants could also face imminent execution.

The organizations said Iran had already executed two teenagers, Amir Norollahi and Amirhossein Hatami, in recent months after they were arrested during the January uprising.

Citing information gathered by human rights organizations, including the Committee for the Release of Political Prisoners, the groups said at least 184 teenagers detained during the January protests remained in prison as of July 26.

Fourteen had received death sentences, they said, with two already executed and another 12 still at risk.

The warning comes as Iranian authorities increasingly target young protesters who played a prominent role in both the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement and the January uprising, where children and teenagers were among those killed, injured and detained.

Iran has sharply increased executions since the January protests, with rights groups saying authorities have used the death penalty more aggressively against protesters, political opponents and people accused of security-related offenses.

Activists say the escalation accelerated further during and after the recent conflict with Israel, as the government widened its crackdown under the cover of wartime security measures.

The statement accused Iran of violating its obligations under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, which prohibits capital punishment for crimes committed by people under the age of 18, regardless of the charges against them.

The groups also criticized authorities' use of national security charges such as moharebeh ("waging war against God") and efsad fel-arz ("corruption on earth") against minors, arguing that coerced confessions, prolonged interrogations and unfair trials had become the basis for death sentences.

They called on governments, international organizations, journalists and rights defenders to press for an immediate halt to executions of anyone accused of crimes committed before the age of 18.

“We must strive to compel the enemy to honor what it signed,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on X Sunday, referring to the Iran-US memorandum of understanding signed in June. “This memorandum enhances the security of our country, the region and our allies.”

Trump said on Saturday that he had canceled the attack after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries requested a pause, saying the sides had agreed on the broad “perimeters” of a deal that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Iran’s nuclear threat.

The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in mediation efforts, reported that a proposal announced by Trump over the weekend calls for the US and Iran to resume negotiations and work through the remaining obstacles to a deal.

The proposal would reopen Hormuz and halt attacks across the region, including attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Persian Gulf countries and Jordan, the official said. In exchange, Washington would end its naval blockade and allow Tehran to export oil under the tentative ceasefire arrangement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations with Oman over the strait were nearing completion.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the talks were bilateral and aimed at agreeing a mechanism for the strait, adding that they did not concern any other party.

“The understanding with Oman over a new transit route has nothing to do with whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open or closed,” Baghaei said. “The strait was closed because the US reneged on its commitments and imposed a blockade.”

Push for de-escalation

Regional governments continued diplomatic outreach on Sunday. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged dialogue and de-escalation in his call with Trump, while the kings of Jordan and Bahrain discussed efforts to restore security and stability in the region.

Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister also urged implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, including guarantees for freedom of navigation through Hormuz, during separate calls with the Saudi and Jordanian foreign ministers.

Military preparations nevertheless continued. Israel’s Channel 12 reported, citing senior US officials, that CENTCOM had prepared strikes against Iranian energy and infrastructure targets, with Israel expected to participate.

Qatar asked Trump for another 24 hours for negotiations, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned that military action could trigger wider regional escalation and damage oil facilities in Persian Gulf states, the report said.

Channel 12 said negotiators were close to a proposed Hormuz arrangement that included renewing the ceasefire, opening the strait toll-free for 60 days, establishing new shipping routes and resuming US-Iran negotiations based on the memorandum of understanding.

War clouds linger

But not all Persian Gulf states backed the diplomatic push. The United Arab Emirates had pressed Trump to take more decisive action against Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior officials from Persian Gulf states familiar with the discussions.

The officials suggested the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would not compromise until the US escalated, took control of Hormuz and perhaps considered ground operations.

An Iranian diplomat told the newspaper that the IRGC was considering preemptive strikes even if the US did not attack, should diplomacy fail.

The Israeli military remained on high alert despite Trump's decision, assessing that Tehran could still spring surprises, Channel 12 reported.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen, who sits on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet, said there was close security and intelligence coordination between Israel and the United States on developments across the region.

"With or without an agreement, and regardless of any external commitments, if Iran attempts to renew its nuclear program or advance its ballistic missile industries, we will be there. We will take action, and we will strike," Cohen added.

Iran’s acting defense minister said Tehran treated every threat from its adversaries as credible and used it to strengthen military readiness and deterrence.

Authorities and state-affiliated media reacted forcefully to reports in US media that President Donald Trump is considering a broad military campaign against Iran as early as this weekend amid escalating tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Wall Street Journal and CNN reported that the White House has reviewed plans for large-scale strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, although Trump has not given final authorization and diplomacy remains an option.

US embassies across the Middle East, including in the UAE, Jordan, Iraq and Israel, urged Americans on Saturday to consider leaving the region or be prepared to depart if tensions escalate, warning of possible Iranian attacks, flight disruptions and airspace closures.

Israel also raised its defense alert level as an Israeli official told Channel 12 that Trump was closer than ever to approving a significant strike on Iran.

Tehran warns of devastating retaliation

Statements by Iranian officials and reports from outlets affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards indicate that Tehran is preparing for the possibility of a broad US military campaign.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned regional countries Saturday against allowing the United States and Israel to use their territory or facilities for attacks on Iran, saying Tehran would target the locations from which any such attacks were launched.

“The defensive strikes of our courageous armed forces continue at full force,” the ministry said, citing the naval blockade of Iranian ports and commercial shipping, attacks across the country, intensified economic pressure and unlawful threats.

Major General Ali Abdollahi, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, also warned regional governments against supporting Washington.

“Any country that makes itself a defensive shield for criminal, aggressor America will burn in the fire of war,” he said.

Tasnim News Agency, citing what it described as a senior security official, said Iran had prepared “an extensive response” targeting “the Israeli regime’s vital infrastructure and America’s energy infrastructure in the region.”

Nour News, an outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, described threats against Iranian infrastructure as “blackmail against global energy security” and warned that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Israel could become targets if Iran’s energy facilities are attacked.

“The first missile will mark the beginning of a crisis that no one will be able to contain,” the outlet wrote.

Outreach to mediators

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke Saturday with Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and the foreign ministers of Turkey and Saudi Arabia about regional developments and the risk of further escalation.

Araghchi warned that any new US or Israeli attack, or support from regional countries, would face a “decisive and proportionate response,” saying Iran was prepared to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and security. He added that those responsible would bear the consequences.

The warnings came as figures close to Iran’s political establishment portrayed the crisis as rooted in disputes that go well beyond the immediate military standoff. Ali Gholhaki, an activist close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, said the conflict extends beyond maritime access or Iran’s frozen assets.

The United States is demanding a long-term—or even permanent—suspension of uranium enrichment and the transfer abroad of roughly 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, conditions Tehran refuses to accept, he wrote.

Gholhaki argued that even a large-scale conventional bombing campaign against Iran’s remaining nuclear facilities or attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure would be unlikely to alter Tehran’s strategic calculations.

“Conflict is inevitable. Escalation can only be avoided if one side makes a clear retreat,” he wrote.

Long fuel queues reflect public concern

The prospect of military escalation has also affected public sentiment.

Witnesses in Tehran reported unusually long queues at petrol stations amid rumors of a major US attack, while videos shared on social media showed motorists rushing to fill their tanks in anticipation of possible disruptions.

Social media users attributed the congestion largely to growing anxiety over the prospect of war.

Online debate exposes divisions

Iranian social media reflected both calls for retaliation and concern about the consequences of a regional war.

Ebrahim Rezaei, a hardline member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, rejected suggestions that Iran could be subdued through a surprise attack.

“If Iran is struck, we will return the entire region and its facilities to the Stone Age,” he wrote, adding: “It is in your interest not to commit such stupidity.”

His remarks drew criticism from reformist journalist Mohammad Aghazadeh, who responded: “Even if that happens, what about the Iranian people? What about their own return to the Stone Age and their suffering?”

Another user questioned the logic of threatening neighboring Arab states, asking how mutual destruction would ultimately harm the United States or Israel.

Reformists urge diplomacy ‘before it is too late’

Several reformist commentators urged both sides to pursue negotiations before the conflict reaches an irreversible stage.

Journalist Mohammad Sohofi cautioned against both complacency and panic, writing that people should fear “the surrender of rational judgment to illusions” more than reports of US military plans.

Veteran journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi argued that the current moment may represent the last opportunity for diplomacy.

“If the dispute is to be resolved through negotiation and agreement, now is the time,” he wrote.

He warned that if Iran’s energy infrastructure is attacked and Tehran retaliates against regional energy facilities, “nothing will ever be the same again,” adding that people would experience “the kind of life previously depicted only in horror films.”

In April, an American F-15 fighter jet was shot down over southwestern Iran, likely by a Chinese-made shoulder-fired missile. Both crew members ejected and were rescued, one of them after two days on the ground in the foothills of the Zagros Mountains.

The loss was historic. No American fighter had been downed by enemy fire in decades.

Iran has reportedly been sourcing these weapons from China, through schemes Washington has been watching for months.

In early May the Treasury Department put one scheme on the public record, sanctioning a network of middlemen arming the Islamic Republic with Chinese weapons, including shoulder-fired missiles. Days later, President Trump traveled to Beijing for a state visit with Xi Jinping.

In late July, he told the public that Xi had personally assured him China would not, “under any circumstances,” sell weapons to the Islamic Republic.

Five days later Reuters reported that a Chinese company had agreed to supply the Islamic Republic with 300 to 400 shoulder-fired air defense missile systems in a deal worth $60 to $70 million.

While the two leaders met and traded assurances, the Islamic Republic appears to have kept buying, likely working several supply channels at once.

The reported deal could help the Islamic Republic close a dangerous gap at exactly the wrong time for Washington. During the 12-day war in June 2025, Israeli aircraft operated over Iran almost at will after the opening strikes severely damaged the country’s air-defense network. The United States later joined the campaign with strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A shoulder-fired missile will lose most encounters with a modern fighter, but it only has to win occasionally. After the April shootdown, every pilot flying low over Iran has to assume there may be a missile team underneath him, so planners may fly higher or less often, and spend more time and aircraft clearing threats before anyone goes in.

It’s the same effect CIA-supplied Stinger missiles had during the Soviet–Afghan War after 1986, when they made low-altitude flying dangerous enough to force Soviet pilots to change their tactics.

We’ve already seen the effect of this strategy at sea, where the Islamic Republic’s missiles, mines and drones along the Strait of Hormuz have sunk few ships yet collapsed traffic and multiplied insurance costs.

These missiles reach only a few thousand meters into the sky. They cannot touch high-flying aircraft or ballistic missiles, and they will not rebuild the air defense shield the Islamic Republic lost. What they will do is make low-altitude missions—including helicopter operations and some strike and support flights—riskier and more expensive

Since the ceasefire, Basij and Revolutionary Guard units around the country have been training with shoulder-fired air-defense weapons. They also won’t all stay in Iran.

Iran has previously been accused of supplying MANPADS to allied armed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, raising the risk that some systems could leave the country. Shoulder-fired missiles have also posed a longstanding threat to civilian aviation worldwide.

China’s answer to all of this has been denial. When NBC reported that a Chinese missile likely downed the F-15, Beijing dismissed the reporting as a groundless smear. When Reuters described the new deal in July, the foreign ministry called it “completely groundless” as well.

Reuters reports that the contract runs through a company registered in Hong Kong and that the missiles are set to travel from Urumqi in western China through Pakistan into Iran. Pakistan, which brokered April’s ceasefire, denies any role.

Strategic credulity?

Trump has taken America’s adversaries at their word before. Xi told him China would not arm the Islamic Republic, and he repeated the assurance to the public as though it settled the matter.

When Volodymyr Zelensky said in late July that Russia was feeding the Islamic Republic satellite imagery to help target American bases, Trump said he would ask Putin about it. He says what he says with a purpose.

Repeating Xi’s promise keeps the relationship warm and the Washington visit on track, while his own government sanctions the middlemen and works to stop the shipments. The message serves diplomacy and the action deals with the missiles, and he sees no contradiction in running both at once.

The Islamic Republic never puts all its eggs in one basket. Washington got ahead of one channel, and we are starting to see the others. The network Treasury sanctioned in May ran through Hong Kong, Belarus and Dubai, while the reported July deal runs through a different Hong Kong company and a different route, through Pakistan.

As the reported Chinese deals advanced, Tehran also signed an agreement with Russia, as reported by the Financial Times, for roughly half a billion euros’ worth of Verba shoulder-fired missiles.

Every route runs at once, and the Islamic Republic plans on losing a few. The first Chinese shipment is said to be weeks away. It should be one that the Islamic Republic loses.

By “overseas media,” Ghalibaf was referring to Persian-language outlets based outside Iran, a term Iranian officials sometimes use to refer to such broadcasters. Iran International was the first outlet to announce Khamenei’s death.

Ghalibaf said officials had initially decided to wait until 8 a.m. the following morning, when they planned to announce his death alongside the formation of a new Leadership Council.

“At 12:30 at night, the television channels abroad announced the martyrdom,” Ghalibaf said, adding that he and Ali Larijani re-established contact around 1 a.m. and decided the original plan could no longer stand.

Officials feared losing control of the streets

Ghalibaf said officials instead decided to announce Khamenei’s death around dawn, while people were eating their pre-dawn Ramadan meal, and immediately call supporters onto the streets.

“We decided that we absolutely had to announce it at dawn, when people were at the suhoor table, and at the same time say: whether you’ve eaten or not, everyone come out into the streets,” he said.

“Otherwise, believe me, the situation in the streets could have taken a completely different turn,” Ghalibaf added.

He described the street as one of four fronts that authorities needed to manage alongside the military, diplomacy and government services. “The military front is one front, diplomacy is one front, services are another, and the street is also a front,” he said.

Street pressure later turned on Ghalibaf

The comments shed new light on the government’s efforts to mobilize supporters immediately after Khamenei’s death. But some of the hardline demonstrators who took to the streets later turned their anger on Ghalibaf and other officials over negotiations with Washington.

The street criticism echoed a revolt among a small but vocal group of ultraconservative lawmakers, who accused Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator in talks with the United States, of crossing leadership red lines and shielding the negotiations from parliamentary scrutiny.