Iran’s labor-focused news agency ILNA has pushed back against government efforts to downplay the economic impact of the recent conflict, citing experts who warn that actual unemployment figures far exceed official estimates.
The dispute highlights a growing rift between state reporting and the reality described by workers following the conflict that began on February 28.
While some officials have attempted to minimize the scale of the crisis, labor advocates and citizens report a significant downturn across key industrial sectors.
Dueling unemployment estimates
The scale of the crisis remains a point of intense domestic debate. Last month, Gholamhossein Mohammadi, Deputy Minister of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, admitted the war had directly destroyed over 1 million jobs and that an additional 2 million people had lost work through indirect effects.
However, some lawmakers have moved to discredit these higher figures. Lawmaker Meysam Zohourian said people should be aware that it is falsely claimed 2 million have become unemployed due to the war.
He added that social security data suggests only about 100,000 unemployment insurance cases may be added. Labor Minister Ahmad Meydari offered a different figure, stating that 150,000 people had registered for unemployment benefits in recent weeks.
Industrial fallout and uncounted layoffs
ILNA and labor activists argue that official data is misleadingly narrow. Alireza Mahjoub, a prominent labor representative, has reported hundreds of thousands of job losses that remain uncounted in state insurance tallies.
The steel and petrochemical sectors have been particularly hard hit. Labor expert Hamid Haj Esmaeili told the Fararu news outlet that the Mobarakeh Steel facility was directly targeted during hostilities.
He said that the plant once employed 28,000 people and that many of them no longer have jobs. He added that layoffs are spreading through the supply chain and affecting petrochemical plants, including the Marvdasht complex in Fars province, where former workers have reported being unemployed for months.
Labor economists cited by ILNA warn of a chain reaction triggered by supply chain disruptions, damaged infrastructure, and the skyrocketing cost of raw materials. In addition to direct layoffs, many firms in the construction and manufacturing sectors have been forced to drastically reduce working hours or implement partial shutdowns due to a lack of inputs.
Reports of food insecurity and rising costs
Direct accounts from citizens to Iran International show the growing financial strain on households. Viewers reported widespread layoffs across production and service units, including one report from the northern city of Rasht where an estimated 2,000 people were let go.
The economic pressure has led to reports of food insecurity, with some families forced to reduce consumption to a single meal per day.
Residents also described a growing inability to pay rent and soaring prices for basic goods. One viewer noted that state television recently ran a caption acknowledging the state of war and high prices, suggesting the public should become accustomed to the current conditions.
“We do not know how we can go on with these prices. Yesterday I bought two sausages. It cost 1 million rials,” one viewer told Iran International, an amount equal to about 60 cents.
The strain is deepening as Iran’s minimum wage has fallen below $90 and the rial continues to lose value, hitting a new low this week.
Another message said workers at a glass factory had still not received their March wages and that supplementary insurance had been cut.
Several citizens linked the deterioration to factory closures after the ceasefire, shortages of raw materials and rising rents.
“Since the ceasefire, most factories have shut down, especially in industrial estates. Everyone has become unemployed because of shortages of raw materials. Daily goods have become more expensive, deposits and rents have gone up, and medical and drug costs have soared,” one message said.
Service platforms absorb jobseekers
Shargh daily reported that new registrations on the home-services platform Achareh rose sharply in late April compared with the same period last year, especially in lower-barrier work such as cleaning and catering.
Registrations for cleaning and catering rose 239 percent from April 21 to May 2, while electrical work rose 220 percent, plumbing 176 percent, cooling services 150 percent, and building maintenance 140 percent, according to figures provided to Shargh.
Bahman Emam, the platform’s chief executive and co-founder, told Shargh that overall job registrations had risen 30 percent.
“We witnessed widespread layoffs this year, and it seems a significant share of applicants are seeking a first job,” Emam said.
Shargh also reported that some workers who had left the platform for traditional markets were seeking to return, while others who could no longer afford life in Tehran asked to activate their profiles in other cities.
Experts warn shock may endure
Ashkan Nezamabadi, an economic journalist in Berlin, told Iran International that Iran’s labor market had entered a dangerous phase.
“Only one of the two main job platforms in Iran announced a few days ago that it had 318,000 new job applications in one day, which was a new record,” Nezamabadi said.
He said new job opportunities had fallen by about 80 percent, while economic losses and internet disruptions added to the strain.
“These changes clearly show something is breaking in the labor market,” he said.
Government plans to issue loans worth 220 million rials (around $120) per worker were unlikely to prevent layoffs or create durable jobs, according to Nezamabadi.
He said assistance would be more effective if directed toward consumers to preserve demand, contrasting it with pandemic-era support programs in Europe and the United States.
Wages fall below subsistence costs
Iran’s Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported that the cost of a basic household livelihood basket had reached 713 million rials (about $385), up from 450 million rials (about $240) used in wage talks earlier this year.
Faramarz Tofighi, a labor activist who calculates livelihood costs, told ILNA that even the earlier estimate was not realistic and that wages did not reach 60 percent of it.
“That same unrealistic 450 million rial basket has today reached 713 million rials,” Tofighi said.
ILNA said the minimum wage including benefits had fallen to about $88 after the rial’s decline, leaving workers unable to cover rent and food.
Workers cited in the report said they were struggling to buy even bread and eggs, with meat and rice removed from many household shopping lists.
Political fallout grows
Milad Rasaei-Manesh, a political activist based in Stockholm, linked the downturn to broader structural issues.
“Today the economy is effectively destroyed, and the war and policies pursued have led to widespread unemployment and deeper poverty,” Rasaei-Manesh told Iran International.
He said internet restrictions had compounded the crisis by cutting off income sources.
“Internet shutdowns have directly caused job losses and pushed more people into poverty,” he said.
He said economic pressures could drive coordinated protest action. "If workers organize through strikes and collective action, they can accelerate change,” he added.
The mounting evidence points to a labor market squeezed from both ends: more people seeking work, and fewer households able to pay for services.
