Iran’s labor-focused news agency ILNA has pushed back against government efforts to downplay the economic impact of the recent conflict, citing experts who warn that actual unemployment figures far exceed official estimates.
The dispute highlights a growing rift between state reporting and the reality described by workers following the conflict that began on February 28.
While some officials have attempted to minimize the scale of the crisis, labor advocates and citizens report a significant downturn across key industrial sectors.
Dueling unemployment estimates
The scale of the crisis remains a point of intense domestic debate. Last month, Gholamhossein Mohammadi, Deputy Minister of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, admitted the war had directly destroyed over 1 million jobs and that an additional 2 million people had lost work through indirect effects.
However, some lawmakers have moved to discredit these higher figures. Lawmaker Meysam Zohourian said people should be aware that it is falsely claimed 2 million have become unemployed due to the war.
He added that social security data suggests only about 100,000 unemployment insurance cases may be added. Labor Minister Ahmad Meydari offered a different figure, stating that 150,000 people had registered for unemployment benefits in recent weeks.
Industrial fallout and uncounted layoffs
ILNA and labor activists argue that official data is misleadingly narrow. Alireza Mahjoub, a prominent labor representative, has reported hundreds of thousands of job losses that remain uncounted in state insurance tallies.
The steel and petrochemical sectors have been particularly hard hit. Labor expert Hamid Haj Esmaeili told the Fararu news outlet that the Mobarakeh Steel facility was directly targeted during hostilities.
He said that the plant once employed 28,000 people and that many of them no longer have jobs. He added that layoffs are spreading through the supply chain and affecting petrochemical plants, including the Marvdasht complex in Fars province, where former workers have reported being unemployed for months.
Labor economists cited by ILNA warn of a chain reaction triggered by supply chain disruptions, damaged infrastructure, and the skyrocketing cost of raw materials. In addition to direct layoffs, many firms in the construction and manufacturing sectors have been forced to drastically reduce working hours or implement partial shutdowns due to a lack of inputs.
Reports of food insecurity and rising costs
Direct accounts from citizens to Iran International show the growing financial strain on households. Viewers reported widespread layoffs across production and service units, including one report from the northern city of Rasht where an estimated 2,000 people were let go.
The economic pressure has led to reports of food insecurity, with some families forced to reduce consumption to a single meal per day.
Residents also described a growing inability to pay rent and soaring prices for basic goods. One viewer noted that state television recently ran a caption acknowledging the state of war and high prices, suggesting the public should become accustomed to the current conditions.
